PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia views S&P Global Ratings\u2019\ndecision to maintain Indonesia\u2019s credit rating at BBB with a stable\noutlook as a positive signal for the market. However, investors are\nadvised to remain cautious of various macroeconomic challenges that\ncontinue to cloud the nation\u2019s economic growth prospects for the second\nhalf of 2026.<\/p>\n
Head of Research and Chief Economist at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas\nIndonesia, Rully Arya Wisnubroto, stated that the S&P decision\nindicates Indonesia\u2019s fiscal fundamentals remain relatively intact,\nparticularly with the retention of the state budget deficit limit of 3\npercent of GDP as a fiscal policy anchor. \"The reaffirmation of the\ninvestment grade rating by S&P provides confidence that Indonesia\u2019s\nfundamental conditions are still quite strong. However, investors also\nneed to see that future challenges stem not only from fiscal conditions\nbut also from external pressures and a slowdown in domestic demand,\"\nRully said.<\/p>\n
According to Rully, unlike S&P which maintained a stable outlook,\nFitch Ratings and Moody\u2019s still hold a negative outlook on Indonesia,\nassessing that policy uncertainty and risks to the fiscal and external\nsectors remain high. Nevertheless, Mirae Asset views the main risk\ncurrently not as a credit rating downgrade, but rather an economic\ngrowth slowdown amidst ongoing external pressures. \"We see S&P\u2019s\nprojection of economic growth rising above 6 percent in the coming years\nas still quite optimistic. Aggressive interest rate hikes, Rupiah\ndepreciation, higher inflation, and slowing domestic demand could\npotentially limit the pace of economic growth,\" Rully said.<\/p>\n
Rully added that the government\u2019s room to provide fiscal stimulus is\nexpected to remain limited due to the commitment to keep the budget\ndeficit below 3 percent of GDP. Under these conditions, Mirae Asset\ncontinues to prioritise a defensive investment strategy by selecting\nissuers with strong fundamentals, healthy liquidity, and the ability to\nmaintain profitability amid market volatility. \"We still see BBCA, EXCL,\nand JPFA as top picks because they have relatively strong fundamentals\nto face market uncertainty,\" Rully stated.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Fixed Income Analyst at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas\nIndonesia, Jessica Tasijawa, said pressure on global financial markets\nis also influenced by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.\nAccording to Jessica, the increase in Brent crude oil prices to around\nUSD83 per barrel could potentially raise Indonesia\u2019s energy import\ncosts, widen the current account deficit, and maintain pressure on the\nRupiah exchange rate. \"On the other hand, rising oil prices also\nincrease global inflation risks, thereby reinforcing expectations of\nhigher for longer interest rates. This condition could sustain global\nfinancial market volatility for some time to come,\" Jessica said.<\/p>\n
Despite this, Jessica assessed that the reaffirmation of Indonesia\u2019s\ninvestment grade status by S&P remains a positive factor that could\nsupport foreign investor interest in Government Securities (SBN),\nparticularly short to medium tenors, as long as geopolitical conditions\ndo not deteriorate significantly.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/indonesias-investment-grade-safe-but-growth-risks-loom-1784105415", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }