Indonesia's 2004 elections: Predicting is harder than ever<\/p>\n
Part 1 of 2<\/p>\n
Jusuf Wanandi, Member, Board of Trustees , Centre for Strategic and
\nInternational Studies, (CSIS), Jakarta<\/p>\n
Election fever along with the inevitable campaigning
\nessentially began as soon as the legislation was finalized by the
\nHouse of Representatives (DPR) in mid-2003.<\/p>\n
Efforts are already underway to mobilize funding to establish
\nlocal committees, and prospective candidates have been selected
\nand proposed from the various political parties. Based on the
\namended Constitution, there are two very pronounced changes: The
\ndirect election of the president in two stages, and the election
\nof a kind of regional\/provincial representatives (or the
\n"Senate") council with limited powers to represent the regions.<\/p>\n
While the elections of the president and House legislators
\nwill involve candidates that are put forward by political
\nparties, the "Senate" or the Regional Representatives Council
\n(Dewan Perwakilan Daerah, DPD) will be composed of
\npersonal\/individual candidates.<\/p>\n
Public opinion polls have been undertaken by many media groups
\nor NGO's interested in the general elections. Their results have
\nvaried wildly and their accuracy is suspect because this is new
\nphenomenon for Indonesian society and only certain segments of
\nIndonesians can be, or are intentionally, polled, mainly people
\nin large cities, with home telephones, so normally just the elite
\nand middle class. However, such limited surveys are not able to
\nreach an accurate cross-section of the many greatly diverse
\ndemographic segments, and that is particularly important because
\nmost people in this multifarious archipelago vote based on which
\ngroup they come from, depending on one -- or a combination of --
\nfactors that include religion, ethnicity or regional identity.<\/p>\n
Most domestic institutions, such as political organizations or
\nmass-based organizations are still underdeveloped. Only the
\nGolkar Party has a reasonably organized network nationwide. The
\nother ones are still based on those demographic group identities.<\/p>\n
The electronic media, especially radio and TV, will play a
\ncertain role, now that freedom of expression is legal. However,
\nmost of such media is owned by urban, upper-class groups in
\nsociety, including the family and\/or cronies of former president
\nSoeharto. It should be noted, however, that their influence on
\npeople's voting behavior is not very clear, because this is also
\na relatively new instrument here. But radio and TV certainly have
\na wider reach than the print media, or so it would seem.<\/p>\n
The new political laws are very much in favor of the existing
\npolitical parties that are well-represented in the DPR. The four
\nor five largest political parties now in the DPR are likely to
\nmaintain their dominance. Only their ranking amongst themselves
\nmay change.<\/p>\n
For instance, based on the performance in regional elections
\nof governors or bupati (regents), the Golkar party seems to be
\nthe best organized party and has been able to win a majority of
\ngovernors and regents (48 percent of governors and 36 percent of
\nregents are Golkar members).<\/p>\n
On the other hand, there have been tensions and rifts within
\nPDI-P, where the central board often clashed with the local
\nbranches on selecting the candidates for governors or regents.
\nThis has caused a major split among party members and supporters.
\nIn addition, the disappointing lack of achievement by the
\nCabinet, led by a PDI-P president, will also hurt the party.<\/p>\n
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which is headed by Muslim
\nintellectuals and academics, has shown that it is a well-
\norganized institution, although it is very much based on a strict
\ninterpretation of Islamic principles. PKS has, however, shown
\nthat it can be a responsible and peaceful group in its reactions
\nto certain events that anger more militant Muslims -- the
\nexceptionally peaceful Iraq War marches are a good example. It is
\nstill a very small party and has only seven seats in the DPR, but
\nit could easily double that in the next election.<\/p>\n
Another strict Islam-based party, the Crescent Star Party
\n(PBB) -- their symbol and beliefs are akin to the conservative ex
\nMasyumi Party -- on the other hand, is expected to lose a lot of
\nsupport although it is now slightly larger than the PKS, among
\nother things because of divisions in the party.<\/p>\n
The new rules make it difficult for new parties to have a
\nchance to change the political equation. The rules also severely
\nrestrict the role of individuals in the DPR. Anybody interested
\nin becoming a legislator or a Presidential candidate has to
\ndepend on the support of political parties.<\/p>\n
The legislative elections are as important as the presidential
\nelection because according to the new Constitution the president
\nhas to get the consent or advice from the DPR on almost every
\nimportant matter including legislation, budgets, control and the
\nappointment of every important state agency such as the commander
\nof the Armed Forces, the National Police chief, the governor of
\nthe central bank, the Supreme Court head and all ambassadors.<\/p>\n
Since there is not likely to be a party with an outright
\nmajority in the DPR, coalitions and alliances are necessary to
\nget policies through. This will be an important requirement for
\nthe next president and his\/her Cabinet. For this reason, the
\nperson that becomes president will hopefully be an experienced
\nand astute politician in addition to being a capable
\nadministrator and a respected leader.<\/p>\n
An important factor in the presidential elections is the rule
\nthat the whole country is treated as one electoral region in that
\nevery vote counts the same in the second round of the election,
\nwhether it is from Java or outside Java, the so-called full
\nproportional system. This makes Java, which has 60 percent of
\nthe voting populace, a very important area for any presidential
\ncandidate.<\/p>\n
Thus, the combination of the presidential and vice-
\npresidential candidates, (name recognition), and how they
\nrepresent parties' demographic\/identity groups, will be critical,
\nespecially in the first round of elections, because there will be
\nseveral candidates. In the second round, however, Java will be
\ndominant, and the candidate that can get a majority in Java with
\nover 60 percent of the votes will have a very good chance of
\nwinning.<\/p>\n
What Indonesia needs, as a President, is someone who is
\nexperienced in government and administration, an astute and
\ncapable politician and a balanced, moderate leader.<\/p>\n
But the situation before the presidential election is still
\nvery fluid. Attempts have been made to form alliances and
\ncoalitions to weaken Megawati's second term prospects. Some
\nparties still have their options open in choosing their
\nPresidential and Vice Presidential candidates, and with whom they
\nwill forge an alliance. At this juncture it is very difficult to
\npredict the outcome.<\/p>\n
There are two big influences on the presidential election that
\nneed to be watched are: First, name recognition and popularity of
\nthe candidate, and second, support from the most number of
\ndemographic segments via a greatly organized political machine.
\nBoth are needed, but which of those will be more decisive is
\nstill an open question, because it will be the first time that
\nvoters have experienced a direct presidential election.<\/p>\n
But if history is any indication, both in this first round of
\nthe presidential election and in the legislative election, name
\nrecognition will be important, but more so will be the party
\nmachinery and the societal groups that support certain
\ncandidates. Adept party members and money are important
\nrequirements for the machinery and organization to perform. The
\ngroups can be religious, ethnic or region-based and are still
\nvery influential at the rural, grass-roots level.<\/p>\n
For Java's relatively more educated voters, and in many cities
\noutside Java, the resistance against Golkar during the Soeharto
\nperiod earlier was such that Golkar could never get more than 50-
\n60 percent in such areas, despite having exercised a great amount
\nof pressure. The other important factors are the people's
\npolitical awareness and willingness to make their own choice. It
\nshould be noted that there has been some resistance against the
\nincumbent PDI-P. It will be important to follow the trends
\nclosely because of the fluidity of the situation in order to
\nmonitor changes before the elections are held.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/indonesias-2004-elections-predicting-is-harder-than-ever-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}