Indonesianists give mixed views on Gus Dur's win<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): News of Abdurrahman Wahid's win in the
\npresidential election met on Wednesday with mixed reactions among
\nIndonesianists abroad with most expressing surprise and cautious
\noptimism.<\/p>\n
\"If you had asked me five or six years ago whether Abdurrahman
\nwould be a good president, I would have said yes. But after his
\nstroke, he became hard to follow. Nobody knows what he is going
\nto do next,\" said Arief Budiman of the University of Melbourne in
\nAustralia.<\/p>\n
Arief was pleased about one aspect: the victory of the reform
\nmovement.<\/p>\n
He expressed hope that Abdurrahman would accommodate all sides
\nin forming his Cabinet, including a coalition with the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).<\/p>\n
The possibility of widescale unrest is reduced by the fact
\nthat Abdurrahman is Megawati's good friend, so PDI Perjuangan
\nsupporters should not be too outraged, Arief said.<\/p>\n
Richard W. Baker of the East West Center in Hawaii said the
\nelection of Abdurrahman as President was considered an unlikely
\noutcome by many right up until the actual counting of the
\nballots.<\/p>\n
However, he said that it had to be assessed as a profoundly
\npositive development for Indonesia.<\/p>\n
Abdurrahman is the one figure who demonstrated an ability to
\nwork with virtually all the other contenders and factions, he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
\"The traits that have sometimes made him appear unpredictable,
\neven inconsistent, in recent months may now enable him, as
\nPresident, to bring together the widest possible political
\ncoalition.\"<\/p>\n
\"Abdurrahman's fundamental personal integrity, his resilience
\nin which he withstood concerted efforts by the Soeharto
\ngovernment to undermine his position within Nahdlatul Ulama,
\nstarted well before Megawati's trials as leader of the PDI, and
\nhis dedication to the creation of a more democratic, honest and
\nclean government are beyond doubt.\"<\/p>\n
Abdurrahman also has substantial international experience and
\nis widely respected around the world. These attributes should
\nalso serve him and Indonesia well in the difficult period of
\nrecovery that still lies ahead, he said.<\/p>\n
\"Abdurrahman's uncertain health has been widely seen as his
\ngreatest liability as a candidate. However, it also provides
\nadditional assurance that as President he will focus on serving
\nthe nation's interests rather than enhancing and perpetuating his
\nown position.\"<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, the major uncertainty about his presidency
\nremains whether his health will permit him to govern
\nenergetically enough, and long enough, to bring about
\nfundamental, enduring change in the government and political
\nsystems, he said.<\/p>\n
In short, Baker said the election of Abdurrahman may well turn
\nout to be a classic moment in Indonesian political history -- a
\nsurprise outcome that has given the country the right leader,
\nwith the right combination of qualities, at a time when those
\nqualities are sorely needed.<\/p>\n
Harold Crouch of the Australian National University said, \"I
\nreally thought that Abdurrahman would have pulled out in favor of
\nMegawati.\"<\/p>\n
Crouch described Abdurrahman as unpredictable and interesting.
\nAnd he would not indulge in corruption, collusion and nepotism.<\/p>\n
\"Though whether he can deal with corruption, collusion,
\nnepotism is another thing.\"<\/p>\n
Whatever he would do, Crouch said, it would be different from
\nwhat Habibie had done. Crouch's concern was his inclination to be
\nerratic, which could cause continuous uncertainty in the
\npolitical configuration of the country.<\/p>\n
What Damien Kingsbury, the executive director of Monash Asia
\nInstitute, saw as advantageous was that Abdurrahman would be able
\nto bring together an alliance of Islamic and reformist groups,
\nsuch as the United Development Party (PPP) and the reformist
\nfaction of Golkar and PDI Perjuangan.<\/p>\n
\"Another leader would have been more divisive,\" said
\nKingsbury.<\/p>\n
However, Kingsbury had some reservations about how quickly
\nAbdurrahman shifted positions lately.<\/p>\n
This, he said, might have a destabilizing effect in the future
\npolitical configuration.<\/p>\n
Kingsbury was also concerned about how Megawati's supporters
\nwould react to such a close defeat.<\/p>\n
As for how stable the future government would be, Kingsbury
\nbelieved it would depend on who Abdurrahman would appoint in his
\nCabinet.<\/p>\n
Of no less importance, he said, was the person who would be
\nthe Indonesian Military chief.<\/p>\n
\"However, I believe Abdurrahman is a good consensus candidate.
\nAnd that is a good thing,\" Kingsbury concluded.<\/p>\n
Bob Lowry of the Australian Defense Academy in Canberra and
\nauthor of The Armed Forces of Indonesia, also pointed to the fact
\nthat Abdurrahman was a democrat. \"He's a reformist. Not one of
\nthe old guards,\" he said.<\/p>\n
However, Lowry suspected that Abdurrahman may have done deals
\nwith some of the \"old guards\".<\/p>\n
\"It is interesting that Golkar did not run their candidate,\"
\nhe said. Lowry believed that the future government had an
\nenormous challenge.<\/p>\n
\"They need to do a complete overhaul of the whole system.
\nReestablish the rule of law, review defense policy, review
\ninternal policy, promote economic growth and political stability.
\nAnd they have to show some results pretty quickly. They must
\nlearn from the Pakistan lesson, where the military were driven to
\ntake over power because the civilian government had made such a
\nmess of it.\" (hbk)<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/indonesianists-give-mixed-views-on-gus-durs-win-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}