Indonesian fires could cost US$6 billion, experts say<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (Reuters): Indonesia's forest fires could cost
\nSoutheast Asia US$5-6 billion, experts said yesterday.<\/p>\n
\"The losses are enormous,\" said David Glover, director of the
\nEconomy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA).<\/p>\n
The bill would be equivalent to 2.5 percent of the combined
\ntotal annual gross domestic product (GDP) of Indonesia, Malaysia
\nand Singapore in actual and indirect costs.<\/p>\n
It could mean a loss of at least half a percentage point in
\neconomic growth for those three countries in 1998, analysts said.<\/p>\n
The $5-6 billion figure would represent the total bill for
\n1997 and for 1998 based on estimates of damage if the fires
\ncontinue until the last quarter of 1998. About half the bill is
\nfor damage from the smog and the rest for damage to the
\nenvironment.<\/p>\n
EEPSEA, a research group funded by Western governments, and
\nthe World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) in Indonesia have just
\ncompleted a study of the cost of the damage from the Indonesian
\nforest fires which began in earnest in August 1997.<\/p>\n
Many of the fires were started by farmers and logging firms to
\nclear ground. But due to severe drought, they are now mostly
\nraging out of control, destroying vast tracts of priceless virgin
\nforest and agricultural land in East Kalimantan and on Sumatra
\nisland.<\/p>\n
Smoke is already building up into a gray pall that threatens
\nto lay a thick blanket of choking smog over much of the region,
\nas it did between September and November last year.<\/p>\n
If the winds follow normal seasonal patterns, the result would
\nbe higher medical bills, fewer tourists and a plunge in
\nmanufacturing output, experts say.<\/p>\n
EEPSEA put the bill for short-term health-care and losses in
\nindustrial production, tourism, air travel and fishing in
\nIndonesia, Malaysia and Singapore in 1997 alone at about $1.4
\nbillion.<\/p>\n
But this excludes damage to the environment and long-term
\nhealth-care problems, such as cancer treatment.<\/p>\n
\"The loss for timber, plantations and bio-diversity would be
\nworth at least as much again as from the pollution. It could be
\nanother $2 billion,\" said Glover.<\/p>\n
The scientists are basing their predictions on the last major
\nIndonesian drought, which occurred in 1982\/83 and brought
\nwidespread forest fires.<\/p>\n
That drought was also partly caused by the El Nio weather
\nphenomenon, a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean which has
\nshifted winds and rain patterns over the last year.<\/p>\n
In 1982\/83, the forest fires began in the first year but
\nflared up again in the second in much the same way as they are
\ndoing this year, Glover said.<\/p>\n
\"There were fires at that time which burned more than 3.5
\nmillion hectares (8.75 million acres). In 1982\/83 the most severe
\nfires took place in the second year because you had a lot of
\ndestruction already and underground peat and coal fires were
\nalready smoldering.\"<\/p>\n
Togu Manurung, policy adviser at the WWF in Jakarta, said some
\n47 million Indonesians were affected by the smog in 1997.<\/p>\n
\"This year, it could easily be that the drought could last
\nuntil October or November,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Economists say the financial impact on the tourist industry
\nwould be difficult to calculate. Figures from Singapore already
\nshow a decline of more than 15 percent in tourist arrivals for
\nDecember and January year-on-year.<\/p>\n
The state tourist board has predicted that factors including
\nthe Asian financial crisis and last year's smog -- which has hit
\nlong-haul tourism -- would mean 8-10 percent fewer tourists in
\n1998 than in 1997.<\/p>\n
But that estimate did not take into account a return of the
\nsmog this year.<\/p>",
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