Indonesian democracy on course<\/p>\n
The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore<\/p>\n
The important thing about Indonesia's parliamentary elections
\nnext week is that the country's stability is no longer hostage to
\npolitical outcomes. The 1999 polls were held in the testy
\naftermath of the Asian economic crisis and the departure of the
\nSoeharto regime, an exit that released destructive forces created
\nby the centrifugal pulls of ethnicity and regionalism.<\/p>\n
Now, as President Megawati Soekarnoputri told this newspaper
\nin an interview, many of the conflicts in trouble-prone areas --
\nMaluku, Kalimantan, Irian Jaya and Aceh -- have been or are being
\nresolved. This is no mean achievement. Terrorism is the new
\nreality and it has power, yet, to break the fragile stability.<\/p>\n
However, Indonesia's neighbors can be safe in the confidence
\nthat, overall, Southeast Asia's pivot will continue its peaceful
\ntransition away from the tumultuous past. Forty-eight parties
\ncontested the last elections in 1999, compared to 24 taking part
\nthis year. This is one of the small but significant details of
\nthe maturing of the Indonesian political system, from the
\npolitical free-for-all that followed years of autocracy to the
\nmore focused party politics of the new millennium.<\/p>\n
Although stability is not what is at stake in this election,
\nIndonesia still needs to translate that stability into higher
\ngrowth. Foreign direct investment is still below the level it
\nreached before the 1997-1998 regional economic crisis; indeed, it
\nfell 66 percent year-on-year in January and February.<\/p>\n
According to a report, those who want to invest cite a weak
\njudicial system and uncertainties over labor regulations as some
\nof the reasons for staying away. This is worrying because the
\nWorld Bank and International Monetary Fund have said that
\nIndonesia cannot grow fast enough to create opportunities for its
\nestimated 10 million unemployed, without more foreign funds
\nflowing in.<\/p>\n
This is where next week's elections for the legislature, to be
\nfollowed by the presidential election in July, can make a
\ndecisive difference. A strong president, buoyed by the power that
\ncomes with a direct vote, will be in a position to take the tough
\nand occasionally unpleasant measures needed to set the country on
\nthe track to growth.<\/p>\n
One other factor of importance is the role which Islam will
\nplay in politics. According to the 2000 census, 178 million
\nMuslims constitute 88 percent of the population. However, the
\ncountry also has more than 1,000 ethnic and sub-ethnic groups.<\/p>\n
In a recently published book, Indonesian Electoral Behavior: A
\nStatistical Perspective, the authors studied the interplay of
\nreligion, ethnicity and other variables, such as education,
\ngeographical composition and per capita income, at work in the
\n1999 elections. They concluded that although religious and ethnic
\nloyalties influenced electoral outcomes then, they were not, with
\nsome exceptions, the most important variables in explaining the
\ndistribution of votes.<\/p>\n
This analysis, which the authors said was relevant to this
\nyear's parliamentary elections, suggests that Islam-based parties
\nwhich emphasize religious demands at the expense of bread-and-
\nbutter expectations might be misjudging the public mood. PAS, the
\nIslamic party in Malaysia, learnt that to its cost in the
\nMalaysian elections.<\/p>\n
Although Indonesia's political culture and electoral system
\nare not the same, there is little doubt that its elections, too,
\nwill be fought on issues such as the economy and good governance.
\nHow Indonesians choose is up to them. What their neighbors and
\nwell-wishers hope for is that they will make choices that will
\nlead them forward.<\/p>",
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