The Financial Services Authority (OJK) announced the results of its\nQ1 2026 Banking Business Orientation Survey (SBPO), which indicates that\nbanking performance is expected to remain solid amid rising global\nuncertainty.<\/p>\n
Dian Ediana Rae, Executive Head of OJK\u2019s Banking Supervision, stated\nthat confidence in solid banking performance is reflected in the Banking\nBusiness Orientation Index (IBP) for Q1 2026, which was recorded at 56,\nplacing it in the optimistic zone. This optimism is driven by projected\ngrowth in banking performance and the belief that banks remain capable\nof managing risks despite expectations of rising inflation and currency\nweakening.<\/p>\n
However, the survey also revealed predictions of weakening currency\nand rising inflation that depressed the Macroeconomic Condition\nExpectation Index (IKM) for Q1 2026, placing it in the pessimistic zone\nat 45. Confidence regarding accelerating inflation is driven by seasonal\nfactors such as Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr celebrations, and Chinese New Year\nfestivities, which typically increase prices of goods and services. Dian\nnoted there is a low base effect from the previous year, as electricity\ntariff discounts applied in 2025 will not continue into Q1 2026.<\/p>\n
The currency is also expected to weaken amid persistently high global\ngeopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, Indonesia\u2019s economic growth is\nprojected to accelerate, driven by increased household consumption in Q1\n2026.<\/p>\n
The SBPO survey was conducted in January 2026, involving 93 bank\nrespondents whose combined total assets represented 94.17 per cent of\ntotal general bank assets based on December 2025 data.<\/p>\n
The majority of respondents believed that banking risks in Q1 2026\nwill remain manageable and controlled. This is reflected in the Risk\nPerception Index (IPR) at 57, placing it in the optimistic zone. This\noptimism is supported by confidence that credit quality will remain\nintact, Net Foreign Exchange Position (PDN) is at low levels, and\nforeign currency assets and receivables exceed foreign currency\nliabilities (long position).<\/p>\n
Liquidity risk is also projected to remain well-managed, driven by\nexpectations that banking liquid assets and third-party funds (DPK) will\ncontinue to grow. With DPK growth expected to outpace credit\ndisbursement growth, net cash flow in Q1 2026 is projected to increase.\nAdditionally, cash inflow is expected to rise as regional government\nfunds begin to enter the system in Q1 2026.<\/p>\n
Expectations for banking performance in Q1 2026 are also at\noptimistic levels, with the Performance Expectation Index (IEK) at 67.\nThis optimism is driven by expectations of credit growth amid rising\ncredit demand and supported by banks\u2019 efforts to expand credit through\navailable pipelines. The processing industry, as the economic sector\ndominating banking credit disbursement, recorded growth of 6.60 per cent\nyear-on-year in January 2026 and is projected to remain the primary\ndriver of future credit growth.<\/p>\n
Regarding fund raising, respondents forecast that DPK in Q1 2026 will\nalso grow in line with banks\u2019 efforts to secure funding sources to\nsupport credit growth and maintain liquidity.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis survey also shows that respondents have significant attention\nto global conditions that may persist for a prolonged period or even\nworsen, and its implications for Indonesia\u2019s economic performance.\nAlthough various banking indicators are currently in a resilient\nposition, banking still requires a vibrant business ecosystem to grow\nwell,\u201d Dian stated.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/indonesian-banking-performance-remains-solid-despite-rising-global-uncertainty-1773111209", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }