Indonesia has fresh chance with democracy<\/p>\n
Greg Barton, Jakarta<\/p>\n
The quiet nature of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's emphatic
\nvictory speaks of the nature of the challenges and opportunities
\nfacing Indonesia's new president. There is little antipathy but
\nconsiderable ambivalence felt towards Susilo. Clearly his better
\nthan expected performance suggests that in the final week many
\nundecided voters decided to get behind him and give him a chance.
\nBut the relatively high level of informal votes suggests that
\nmany Indonesians feel much more positive about democracy itself
\nthan they do about the candidates that it has so far produced.<\/p>\n
Susilo is clearly a likable individual and there is little
\ndoubt about his character and integrity. And yet the rise and
\nrise of Susilo has been met with profound ambivalence amongst
\nsome of the most progressive sections of Indonesian society.<\/p>\n
To a considerable extent this uncertainty about Susilo stems
\nfrom his military background and his connections with the
\nSoeharto New Order regime. The fact that he does not yet have
\nclear support in parliament further reinforces the perception of
\nhim as a nice guy but a rather wooden and indecisive leader
\nvulnerable to being controlled by the former regime elements that
\nhave flocked to his side.<\/p>\n
Had Susilo emerged as a presidential candidate several years
\nago in more turbulent times, or had his margin of victory on
\nMonday been much less substantial, there would be good grounds
\nfor doubting his ability to manage one of the modern world's most
\ndifficult political assignments. But success in politics is very
\nmuch a matter of timing and this week Susilo, and arguably the
\nnation of Indonesia as a whole, appears to have gotten lucky.<\/p>\n
There is no doubt that the nation and its new president faces
\na plethora of challenges and that there are many ways for things
\nto go wrong but there are, nevertheless, at least half a dozen
\nreasons for believing that Susilo might just succeed:<\/p>\n
Firstly, the quiet support for democracy evident in this
\nyear's three peaceful and successful elections speaks of a
\nsignificant degree of social maturity in Indonesia. The
\nremarkable absence of violence and unrest puts Indonesia at the
\ntop of this year's very large class of developing nations going
\nto the polls and underscores the innate common sense of ordinary
\nIndonesians.<\/p>\n
Secondly, the incumbent president and her administration,
\ntogether with the people of Indonesia, deserve credit for having
\nachieved a degree of social and economic stability that even
\nmerciless terrorists with bombs have been unable to disrupt.
\nSusilo is not inheriting an ungovernable nation nor is he taking
\ncharge of a hopeless economy.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, Susilo's steady rise in popularity over the last
\nsix months, and the sharp swing towards him in recent days,
\nspeaks of a widely held desire for change. Few people thought ill
\nof Megawati but few were convinced that she was capable of
\ndelivering real change.<\/p>\n
The fact that she lifted her public relations efforts several
\nnotches in recent months was not enough to offset the impression
\nthat her's was a \"do nothing\" presidency. This impression was
\nfurther reinforced by her failure to introduce new policies or
\nnew personalities since her party's shocking performance in
\nApril's parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n
When Megawati first succeeded Abdurrahman Wahid as president
\nin July 2001 her very inertness was seen as her greatest asset.
\nShe was welcomed by many precisely because, unlike her idealistic
\nbut bellicose predecessor, she was not trying to change
\neverything and consequently was not going to draw fire from all
\nsides.<\/p>\n
The stability that approach brought was welcome, particular to
\nthe markets, but ultimately it was found wanting. Difficult
\nthough it be Indonesia needs change. Reform is necessary for its
\nown sake in many areas of national life but it is also essential
\nif Indonesia is to rebuild the confidence of investors and regain
\nthe level of economic growth necessary to meet the basic demands
\nof its fast-growing population.<\/p>\n
It is Susilo's good fortune to appear on the stage at time
\nwhen the nation is longing for change, after three year's of
\nMegawati's administration, and yet is realistic and reasonable
\nabout what is possible; in sharp contrast to the unreasonable
\nexpectations of five years ago at the outset of the Wahid
\npresidency. Quiet realism about what democracy can reasonably be
\nexpected to deliver has replaced extravagant romanticism.<\/p>\n
The new president's political base is further consolidated by
\nthe strong mandate achieved by his twenty percent margin of
\nvictory. This clear display of public support for his presidency
\nshould go a long way to enabling him to consolidate support in
\nthe legislature.<\/p>\n
The nature of the pre-poll alliance between Golkar party,
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and United
\nDevelopment Party (PPP), its failure to sway voters and the
\nsubsequent magnitude of Susilo's victory makes it inevitable,
\nwhatever party chairmen might care to claim, that the question of
\npolitical alliances is going to have to be revisited. Securing
\nreliable support in the legislature, however, remains Susilo's
\ngreatest challenge.<\/p>\n
Sixthly, and finally, Susilo's character and integrity
\nrepresent his greatest assets. If he can remain true to his
\nprinciples in the midst of the demanding arena of politics and
\ncommunicate that clearly he will ultimately be rewarded with a
\ndegree of political influence unachievable by the horse-traders
\nand slick operators who for so long have called the shots in
\nIndonesian politics and whom are now maneuvering to block him in
\nthe legislature.<\/p>\n
Indonesia and its people deserve good leadership. If the new
\npresident realizes his potential and meets or exceeds the modest
\nexpectations of his people then ambivalence will quickly be
\nreplaced with firm support and \"muddling through\" will give way
\nto real progress.<\/p>\n
Dr Greg Barton is a Senior Lecturer in Politics at Deakin
\nUniversity. His book, Indonesia's Struggle: Jemaah Islamiyah and
\nthe soul of Islam was published by UNSW Press last week.<\/p>",
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