{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1633853,
        "msgid": "indef-predicts-eid-momentum-to-drive-growth-up-to-5-2-percent-1774425082",
        "date": "2026-03-25 14:11:31",
        "title": "INDEF predicts Eid momentum to drive growth up to 5.2 percent",
        "author": "",
        "source": "ANTARA_ID",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Economy",
        "summary": "The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) forecasts that the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period will boost Indonesia's economic growth to 5.1\u20135.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, adding 0.2\u20130.5 percentage points through heightened consumer spending. This surge, supported by holiday allowances, social aid, and mobility incentives, will particularly benefit retail, transportation, and SMEs, though it is seen as temporary without underlying production improvements. The government aims for 5.5\u20135.6 percent growth and has introduced transport subsidies to sustain purchasing power during the festive season.",
        "content": "<p>The head of the Macroeconomic and Finance Centre at the Institute for\nDevelopment of Economics and Finance (INDEF), M Rizal Taufikurahman,\nestimates that the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period will drive economic\ngrowth to 5.1\u20135.2 percent (year-on-year\/yoy) in the first quarter of\n2026. \u201cIn aggregate, the Eid momentum is estimated to add around 0.2\u20130.5\npercentage points to first-quarter economic growth,\u201d Rizal said when\ncontacted by ANTARA in Jakarta on Wednesday. He explained that the Eid\nperiod falling at the beginning of the year creates a front-loading\neffect, concentrating growth acceleration in the first quarter.\nAccording to him, the increase in public spending is supported by the\ndisbursement of holiday allowances (THR), social assistance (bansos),\nand mobility stimuli, which directly boost household consumption as the\nlargest contributor to gross domestic product (GDP). \u201cThis consumption\nsurge also generates a fairly broad multiplier effect, particularly in\nthe retail, transportation, accommodation, and micro, small, and medium\nenterprises (MSME) sectors, as well as encouraging the redistribution of\neconomic activity to regions during the homecoming period,\u201d he added.\nHowever, Rizal highlighted that the nature of the growth boost in the\nfirst quarter is relatively short-term. This is because the push is not\naccompanied by increased production capacity, thus reflecting higher\neconomic utilisation rather than fundamental improvements. \u201cAlthough\nfirst-quarter growth has the potential to appear strong, there is a risk\nof normalisation in subsequent periods. Eid consumption tends to be\ntemporary and based on seasonal factors, potentially followed by a\nslowdown after the holidays, especially among lower-middle income\ngroups,\u201d Rizal explained. Therefore, he said, it is important for the\ngovernment to strengthen more structural sources of growth, primarily\nfrom investment and exports, to ensure sustainable economic growth.\n\u201cTherefore, strengthening more structural sources of growth is crucial\nso that economic performance is not only strong cyclically but also\nsolid in the medium term,\u201d he stated. Meanwhile, the government targets\nnational economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 to be in the range\nof 5.5 to 5.6 percent (yoy). This target is driven by accelerated state\nspending, fiscal stimuli, and strengthened public purchasing power,\nespecially during the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period. To maintain public\npurchasing power and stimulate economic growth, the government has\nlaunched an economic stimulus package in the first quarter of 2026. One\nof them is transportation incentives for Eid homecoming in the form of a\n30 percent discount on train tickets, 30 percent on sea transport, 100\npercent on ferry services, and 17\u201318 percent off on flight tickets.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/indef-predicts-eid-momentum-to-drive-growth-up-to-5-2-percent-1774425082",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}