{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1826254,
        "msgid": "indef-2026-tobacco-excise-revenue-target-of-rp225-trillion-difficult-to-achieve-1782481872",
        "date": "2026-06-26 20:13:00",
        "title": "Indef: 2026 Tobacco Excise Revenue Target of Rp225 Trillion Difficult to Achieve",
        "author": "Andhika",
        "source": "MEDIA_INDONESIA",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Economy",
        "summary": "A senior economist at Indef has warned that Indonesia's 2026 tobacco excise revenue target of Rp225 trillion will be difficult to meet due to declining purchasing power and a shrinking market share for certain cigarette categories. The prediction comes amid broader concerns over the impact of high excise duties and strict regulations on the tobacco industry, including potential job losses. The government's plan not to raise excise rates in 2026 has been welcomed by industry groups as a strategic move to protect the sector.",
        "content": "<p>Senior economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and\nFinance (Indef), Tauhid Ahmad, has predicted that the 2026 tobacco\nexcise revenue target of Rp225 trillion will be difficult to achieve. He\nmade the statement during a discussion titled \u2018IHT Under Pressure: High\nExcise, Strict Regulation, Threats to Farmers and Millions of Workers\u2019\nheld in Jakarta on Friday (26\/6).<\/p>\n<p>\u2018If we look at it, this is also reflected in tobacco excise revenue,\nwhich I think is very challenging. The trend since 2022 has been\ndeclining. So if the 2026 target is Rp225 trillion, or an increase of\naround 6.6%, I think it is somewhat difficult,\u2019 said Tauhid.<\/p>\n<p>The prediction was not made without reason. According to him, the\nexcise target is difficult to achieve because people\u2019s purchasing power,\nparticularly among the middle and lower classes, is currently under\npressure. Additionally, the market share of the SKM 1 category has\ndeclined drastically compared to previous years. In 2023, for example,\nthe market share of SKM 1 was still at 35%. Then in 2024, it plummeted\nto 30%.<\/p>\n<p>He also added that over the last ten years (2015-2025), the\nprevalence of smoking has decreased from 30.08% to 28.68%. Meanwhile,\nfor the 15-19 age group, it also declined from 10.57% to 10.48%.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018From these indicators, it is true that most people still smoke, but\nthe trend is declining. This means that along with the declining\ncontribution to the economy, it is also proportional to the decrease in\ncigarette consumption,\u2019 he concluded.<\/p>\n<p>The Ministry of Manpower has warned of potential layoffs in the\ntobacco products industry as a result of the excise increase in\nGovernment Regulation 28\/2024. Company efficiency measures and weakening\npurchasing power are the main triggers. Labour unions assess that the\npolicy could potentially cause far greater economic consequences than\nthe benefits claimed by the government. The planned ban on additives in\ncigarettes has drawn protests from the industry and labour unions, who\nfear it will trigger layoffs, shut down small and medium enterprises,\nand encourage illegal cigarettes. Behind the enforcement actions against\nmillions of illegal cigarettes, thousands of workers are also protected\nfrom the impact of unfair business competition. The standardisation of\npackaging with uniform colours will eliminate the distinctiveness and\nbrand identity that have been the main differentiators for legal\nproducts. The decision not to increase the 2026 tobacco excise rate has\nbeen welcomed by Apindo and AMTI. The Ministry of Finance\u2019s plan not to\nraise tobacco excise rates in 2026 is considered a strategic step to\nsave the tobacco products industry.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/indef-2026-tobacco-excise-revenue-target-of-rp225-trillion-difficult-to-achieve-1782481872",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}