Indonesia\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise or\nexperience inflation in August 2026. The CPI increase is mainly driven\nby rising prices of several food commodities, gold, and education\ncosts.<\/p>\n
However, lower airfares and non-subsidised fuel prices are expected\nto restrain inflationary pressure.<\/p>\n
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) will announce the August 2026 CPI data on\nTuesday (1\/9\/2026).<\/p>\n
The market consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia from 12 institutions\nexpects the CPI to rise month-to-month (mtm) or experience inflation of\n0.18%.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the CPI year-on-year (yoy) is expected to rise or\nexperience inflation of 3.13%.<\/p>\n
For reference, in the previous inflation release for the July 2026\nperiod, deflation of 0.14% (mtm) was recorded, while annually there was\ninflation of 2.88% (yoy).<\/p>\n
Thus, the CPI is expected to turn upward on a monthly basis after\ndeclining in July. Annual inflation is also projected to increase by\n0.25 percentage points compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n
If the projection is realised, August annual inflation will remain\nwithin Bank Indonesia\u2019s target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1%.<\/p>\n
Bank Mandiri\u2019s Office of Chief Economist team expects the rise in\ninflation to be mainly driven by a reversal in volatile food prices. The\ngroup is expected to rise again after falling quite deeply in July.<\/p>\n
The increase mainly occurred in chicken meat and bird\u2019s eye chilli\nprices. Food price pressure also risks persisting due to production\ndisruptions triggered by El Nino and the dry season.<\/p>\n
\u201cFood price pressure may continue amid production disruptions due to\nEl Nino and the dry season, although lower garlic and shallot prices\nprovide some offset,\u201d wrote Bank Mandiri\u2019s Office of Chief Economist\nteam.<\/p>\n
Bank Maybank Indonesia economist Juniman also assessed that rising\nfood prices were one of the drivers of inflation during August.<\/p>\n
\u201cAugust inflation was mainly driven by rising food prices such as\nrice, cooking oil, beef, chicken meat, eggs, red chillies, and\nsoybeans,\u201d Juniman told CNBC Indonesia.<\/p>\n
The price movements are visible in data from the National Strategic\nFood Price Information Centre (PIHPSN). The average price of bird\u2019s eye\nchillies rose by 10.60% in August to Rp61,855 per kilogram. Chicken meat\nprices also experienced the same trend, rising 8.22% to Rp41,348 per\nkilogram.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the average price of red chillies rose 4.60%, and rice\nprices increased 0.54% to Rp16,270 per kilogram.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, lower onion prices helped to dampen food pressure.\nThe average price of shallots fell the most, by 11.12%, from Rp44,000 to\nRp39,108 per kilogram.<\/p>\n
Garlic prices also fell 6.82%, from Rp43,411 to Rp40,450 per\nkilogram.<\/p>\n
Inflationary pressure in August did not only come from food. Bank\nMandiri assessed that core inflation also has the potential to increase\nalong with rising gold prices.<\/p>\n
Gold prices are estimated to rise by around 7.2% month-to-month. The\nincrease could lift jewellery gold prices, which are one component in\nthe CPI calculation.<\/p>\n
Pressure on core inflation also came from education.<\/p>\n
\u201cEducation costs increased in line with the start of the new academic\nyear for academies and universities,\u201d said Juniman.<\/p>\n
In addition, the weakening rupiah also increases the risk of imported\ninflation. The impact is visible in rising prices of goods with high\nimport content, such as electronics, cars, and motorcycles.<\/p>\n
Amid rising food prices and several core components, the group of\ngovernment-administered prices is actually expected to restrain the pace\nof inflation.<\/p>\n
Bank Mandiri assessed that the decline mainly came from air transport\nfares. Airline ticket prices are estimated to fall by around 2.7%\nmonth-to-month following the government\u2019s policy of reducing the maximum\nlimit for fuel surcharges on domestic flights in August.<\/p>\n
Besides airline tickets, lower non-subsidised fuel prices also\nprovide room for easing price pressure on transportation.<\/p>\n
For reference, all fuel distribution business entities have adjusted\nnon-subsidised product prices starting 1 August 2026. The adjustments\nwere made by Pertamina, Shell Indonesia, BP-AKR, Vivo Energy Indonesia,\nand Mobil Indostation.<\/p>\n
For example, at Pertamina petrol stations in the Jabodetabek area,\nthe price of Pertamax Turbo fell from Rp19,300 to Rp18,300 per litre.\nThe price of Pertamax Green 95 also fell from Rp17,000 to Rp16,600 per\nlitre.<\/p>\n
The decline also occurred for Pertamax RON 92, from Rp16,250 to\nRp15,950 per litre. The adjustment is in line with weakening crude oil\nprices on the international market.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/important-announcement-due-at-start-of-september-brace-for-a-surprise-1788166311", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }