JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The rupiah exchange rate is projected to remain\nunder pressure and could weaken to the psychological level of Rp 17,070\nper US dollar during trading on Wednesday (1\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n
The weakening of the Garuda currency is in line with rising\ngeopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have triggered a surge\nin energy prices.<\/p>\n
The rupiah in the spot market did indeed weaken at the close of\ntrading on Tuesday (31\/3\/2026), falling 39 points or 0.23 percent to Rp\n17,041 per US dollar.<\/p>\n
Therefore, Currency and Commodities Analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicts\nthat the rupiah\u2019s movement will be volatile but tends to weaken in the\nrange of Rp 17,040 to Rp 17,070 per US dollar on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor tomorrow\u2019s trading, the rupiah will be volatile but close weaker\nin the range of Rp 17,040 - Rp 17,070 (per US dollar),\u201d said Ibrahim to\nreporters on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
This situation has driven a spike in global oil prices. Brent prices\nwere recorded to have surged up to 59 percent throughout March, while\nWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 58 percent, marking the highest\nmonthly increase in recent years.<\/p>\n
Highlighting threats to energy supplies via sea routes from the war\nbetween Iran and the United States and Israel, Kuwait Petroleum Corp\nstated on Tuesday that their fully loaded crude oil tanker, Al Salmi,\ncapable of carrying up to 2 million barrels, was hit by an attack\nallegedly carried out by Iran in Dubai port. Officials also warned of\nthe potential for an oil spill in the area.<\/p>\n
In addition, on Saturday, Yemen\u2019s Houthi forces allied with Iran\ntargeted Israel with missiles, raising new concerns about possible\ndisruptions to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow point connecting the\nRed Sea and the Gulf of Aden and a major route for ships travelling\nbetween Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal.<\/p>\n
From the domestic perspective, Ibrahim assesses that pressure on the\nrupiah is also influenced by domestic economic dynamics. Indonesia\u2019s\neconomic growth in Q1-2026 is projected to be in the range of 5.1-5.2\npercent, driven by household consumption and government spending.<\/p>\n
However, slowing investment and export performance are restraining\nfactors, particularly due to the worsening global conditions throughout\nMarch 2026, which have impacted financial markets and exchange\nrates.<\/p>\n
\u201cEconomists project Q1-2026 economic growth to be in the range of 5.1\npercent - 5.2 percent. The main drivers are household consumption and\ngovernment spending,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, there are obstacles from the slowdown in gross fixed\ncapital formation (PMTB)\/investment and net exports, caused by the\ndeteriorating global conditions in March 2026 due to the war in the\nMiddle East, which is pressuring energy prices, financial markets, and\nexchange rates,\u201d Ibrahim continued.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/impact-of-geopolitical-tensions-rupiah-projected-to-weaken-to-rp-17-070-per-us-dollar-1775001046", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }