Immediate action needed to avert starvation<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Besides being blamed for the smog, the prolonged
\ndrought will also impact agricultural production. We asked Dr.
\nH.S. Dillon, executive director of the recently founded Center
\nfor Agriculture Policy Studies, to comment on the current
\nsituation.<\/p>\n
JP: The drought shows no sign of ending. How bad is the
\nsituation in agricultural terms?<\/p>\n
Answer: Well, I fear that the situation might be deteriorating
\nvery rapidly. The widespread publicity over the smog due to its
\nspillover across international borders and its effect upon the
\nurban populace has distracted us from an even more serious
\ndevelopment.<\/p>\n
In this case, those facing the greatest threat of starvation
\nare the most isolated rural communities, who have practically no
\nvoice. The IDT disbursements over the last three years reveal
\nthat 70 percent of the monies were used to finance agricultural
\nprojects.<\/p>\n
Production statistics tracking the effect of El Nio over the
\nlast two decades indicate that harvested rice areas could fall by
\nat least 4 percent, while that of coffee might decline by about
\n25 percent. We are being told that 450,000 hectares of rice have
\nalready been affected. Given the small average size of our rice
\nholdings, you can imagine how many households stand to suffer a
\nmajor loss in income.<\/p>\n
Q: Why do you sound so concerned? The government must certainly
\nbe aware of this threat.<\/p>\n
A: If I sound concerned, it's because I fear that officials are
\ngoing to remain in denial until the press reports mass
\nstarvation. Then it'll be too late, thousands might have died
\nalready. You see, this drought is compounded by the most severe
\neconomic downturn we have seen since the New Order came into
\npower.<\/p>\n
During droughts, the rural population migrates to cities in
\nsearch of work -- any type of work, which will help tide them
\nover. During economic downturns -- normally caused by business
\ncycles -- agriculture has invariably served as the employer of
\nthe last resort.<\/p>\n
What we are witnessing now is a double bind -- and poor
\nhouseholds, particularly those in isolated communities, are going
\nto find it very difficult to cope without external assistance.<\/p>\n
Our statistics show that with the poverty line at a monthly
\nper capita income of Rp 27,413, 15.3 million were classified as
\npoor. However, there were another 21 million with incomes less
\nthan Rp 35,000. Thus, there are at least 36 million at risk.<\/p>\n
One would have thought mass starvation was a thing of the
\npast. It certainly should not occur in these modern days and
\ntimes.<\/p>\n
Sadly enough, Waimena flies in the face of logic and common
\nsense. The Waimena starvations serve to illustrate the weaknesses
\nin both our surveillance mechanism and the speed of our response.
\nHowever, nobody has come forward to assume responsibility.<\/p>\n
At present, most regional officials do not want to admit that
\nanything bad is happening in their areas for fear that they will
\nbe blamed, and might not be reelected. According to reports,
\nofficials in East Kalimantan are maintaining that deaths from
\nstarvation have not been caused by a food shortage, but because
\nhouseholds cannot afford to buy food. A large number of senior
\nofficials normally lack a sense of direction, and are already
\nlooking beyond March 1998.<\/p>\n
They are mainly preoccupied with their own survival and rarely
\npossess the moral courage to speak out. Thus, situations which
\ncould have been easily nipped in the bud have been allowed to
\ndeteriorate into major tragedies.<\/p>\n
Q: What should be done now?<\/p>\n
A: Well, first of all, we should set up an effective surveillance
\nsystem to pinpoint the food shortage. This cannot be done using
\nthe normal Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Health
\ninformation systems because that would arrive too late, and
\nfurthermore, they would try to cover up what would be perceived
\nas their failures.<\/p>\n
Once again, it is President Soeharto, himself, who has called
\nupon us to be alert, as this drought might be followed by heavy
\nflooding. Therefore, part of the monies we are receiving from the
\nInternational Monetary Fund should be set aside to help the food-
\ndeficient households.<\/p>\n
For the sake of speed and accountability, it might be best if
\nthe President's secretary for development coordinates with BULOG
\nand ABRI in conducting a biweekly surveillance of the food
\nshortage. These agencies should work with local administrations
\nand report back to the President every other week.<\/p>\n
Simple yardsticks, such as the number of households which have
\nrun out of home rice stock or those which have sold basic
\nbelongings, might be useful to get a handle on the number of the
\npoor. Getting relief out quickly, without it being lost or
\ndistorting markets, is of the greatest importance.<\/p>\n
Priority should be given to the elderly, women and children,
\nfor they are the most vulnerable during problem periods such as
\nthis.<\/p>\n
Q: What would the consequences of inaction be?<\/p>\n
A: Food prices would escalate sharply toward New Year's and the
\nadvent of Ramadhan; they've already begun to rise. As their
\nmeager stocks and savings run out, the poor would have to cut
\ndown on consumption. Disease would ravage the weak and those with
\nlow resistance.<\/p>\n
What more if heavy flooding were indeed to follow in the wake
\nof this drought? I'm afraid that this would further destabilize
\nthe economy and could be unfairly associated with the economic
\nreform package. This could lead to widespread political unrest,
\nsomething we should all work on to avoid.<\/p>",
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