ICG spells out trouble for RI<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): President Abdurrahman Wahid is not likely to
\nescape unscathed from current attempts by his opposition to
\nunseat him, but whatever transpires from this power struggle,
\nviolence looms large over Indonesia, the International Crisis
\nGroup says.<\/p>\n
"Gus Dur (Abdurrahman)'s survival with his presidential powers
\nintact is unlikely," the Brussels-based research group said in
\nits latest report on Indonesia entitled "Indonesia's Presidential
\nCrisis".<\/p>\n
"Even if this were to happen, he could probably not restore
\nhis moral and political authority. Based on past experience,
\nthere is little reason to expect that a new Gus Dur government
\nwould be more cohesive and effective than the old one," the ICG
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
The group, chaired by former Australian foreign minister
\nGareth Evans who is in town this week, postulated four scenarios
\narising from the battle between the President and his foes in the
\nHouse of Representatives. All four have the potential for setting
\noff violent clashes between his supporters and those who oppose
\nhim, it said.<\/p>\n
The first is for his impeachment by the People's Consultative
\nAssembly, where his position is no longer tenable, and for Vice
\nPresident Megawati Soekarnoputri to take over.<\/p>\n
This scenario alone raises the possibility of clashes between
\nsupporters of the two leaders.<\/p>\n
The report said that were Gus Dur to resign before the
\nimpeachment, he could help ensure a smooth transition and reduce
\nthe likelihood of an ugly conflict. "However, Gus Dur is famous
\nfor his stubbornness, and those who know him well believe that he
\nis unlikely to follow this course."<\/p>\n
A second scenario is one where the President transferred
\nexecutive tasks to the Vice President, or by citing his ailing
\nhealth, declared himself non-active and handed over full
\npresidential power to his deputy. "It is very unlikely that Gus
\nDur would accept either alternative at present but he may find
\none or the other more attractive if his position becomes more
\ndesperate during the coming months," the report said.<\/p>\n
A third scenario is for the President to win over Megawati's
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) in
\nreturn for the majority of seats in his Cabinet. Since the
\ncoalition of his own Nation Awakening Party (PKB) with PDI
\nPerjuangan still does not guarantee him enough support in
\nparliament, he will have to solicit support from one or two other
\nparties. "However, it is most unlikely that Megawati and her
\nparty would accept an arrangement that left Gus Dur in full
\ncontrol of the government."<\/p>\n
The fourth scenario could emerge if the street conflicts
\nbetween supporters of pro and anti-Gus Dur demonstrations that
\nhave erupted in East Java spread to other parts of the country.<\/p>\n
"If the situation deteriorated badly, a fourth scenario could
\nbe envisaged in which the constitutional steps might be abandoned
\nand an unconstitutional "Philippine" (Estrada-Arroyo) solution
\ncould be repeated in Jakarta."<\/p>\n
This is the fourth ICG report on Indonesia this month. The
\nearlier reports looked at the efforts to reform the National
\nPolice, Indonesia's failure to punish those responsible for gross
\nhuman rights violations, and an opinion article by Gareth Evans
\nwarning Jakarta that it stood to lose a lot of international
\nsupport and goodwill unless it pulled its act together.<\/p>\n
In December, ICG published a report which looked at the
\nviolent sectarian conflict in Maluku. All five full reports are
\navailable at ICG's website at www.crisisweb.org.<\/p>",
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