JAKARTA \u2013 Global geopolitical turmoil is expected to continue\ninfluencing movements in world commodity prices throughout 2026.\nStrategic commodities such as gold and crude oil are projected to remain\nvolatile amid economic and international political uncertainty.<\/p>\n
This emerged during the ICDX Commodity Outlook 2026 event held by the\nIndonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) in Jakarta on\nWednesday, 11 March 2026. The forum discussed the prospects for gold and\ncrude oil commodities under the theme \u201cGold & Crude Oil:\nAvailability, Geopolitics and Global Market\u201d.<\/p>\n
ICDX Director Nursalam said the information presented at the forum\nwas expected to serve as a reference for business operators in\nformulating their business strategies.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe hope that the information we present in the Commodity Outlook\n2026 can serve as a reference for business operators in making and\ndetermining their strategic policies this year,\u201d Nursalam said in\nJakarta on Wednesday, 11 March 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cDevelopments in global geopolitics, particularly in the Middle East,\nwill undoubtedly have some impact on the prices of crude oil and gold\ncommodities,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Throughout 2025, multilateral transactions in crude oil-based\ncommodity contracts at ICDX reached 61,260 lots. Meanwhile, transactions\nin gold-based commodity contracts reached 1,627,698 lots.<\/p>\n
Crude oil contracts were dominated by COFRMic contracts with 51,548\nlots traded. This micro futures contract uses the West Texas\nIntermediate (WTI) price benchmark with a size of 10 barrels per\nlot.<\/p>\n
Gold contracts were dominated by GOLDUDMic with 682,310 lots traded.\nThis contract is a micro version of the GOLDUD contract, sized at 1\/100\nof the standard contract or equivalent to 0.01 contract.<\/p>\n
ICDX Research and Development Analyst Tiffani Safinia said 2025 was\none of the best periods for gold in recent decades.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe year 2025 became one of the best years for gold in several\ndecades, whilst strengthening its role as a safe-haven asset and\ndiversification instrument amid global uncertainty,\u201d Safinia said.<\/p>\n
Throughout 2025, gold prices rose 64 per cent with 53 all-time highs\nrecorded. The highest record was $4,550 per troy ounce on 26 December\n2025, with an average price of approximately $3,431 per troy ounce.<\/p>\n
Tiffani cited several factors driving the increase, including three\ninterest rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) totalling\n75 basis points, Middle East conflicts, and geopolitical tensions\nbetween the United States and China.<\/p>\n
For 2026, gold prices are projected to remain elevated. She said gold\nprices could potentially range from $5,500 to $6,000 per troy ounce\nthrough the end of the year.<\/p>\n
Based on a Reuters survey of 30 international analysts and traders,\nthe median projection for 2026 gold prices stood at $4,746.50 per troy\nounce, an increase from the previous estimate of $4,275.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe year 2025 was a challenging year for crude oil commodities. The\naverage price movement of this black gold recorded a decline of more\nthan 21 per cent to the level of $60 per barrel at the end of 2025,\u201d\nsaid Girta Putra Yoga.<\/p>\n
That price fell from an average early-year level of $77 per\nbarrel.<\/p>\n
In the first half of 2025, crude oil prices fell nearly 10 per cent\nwith an average around $69 per barrel. The decline was triggered by the\ntariff war imposed by US President Donald Trump against China and\nseveral trading partners such as Canada and Mexico.<\/p>\n
Oil prices even briefly touched $62 per barrel in May 2025 before\nrecovering after the United States and China agreed to a 90-day tariff\ntruce.<\/p>\n
Entering 2026, oil prices surged again, driven by geopolitical\ntensions.<\/p>\n
\u201cGeopolitical tensions in early 2026, ranging from the arrest of\nVenezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro by US military to the US\u2013Iran war,\ndrove crude oil prices up to touch $90 per barrel in early March,\u201d Girta\nsaid.<\/p>\n
That price increased from around $57 per barrel in early January\n2026.<\/p>\n
According to him, crude oil prices have the potential to continue\nstrengthening through the second half of 2026. Resistance levels are\nestimated to be in the range of $95\u2013$100 per barrel, whilst support\nlevels are projected in the range of $75\u2013$80 per barrel.<\/p>\n
Major factors that will influence oil price movements include\ndevelopments in Middle East conflicts, OPEC+ production policies, and US\ntrade tariff policies.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/icdx-chief-global-conflict-makes-gold-price-difficult-to-stabilise-1773251594", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }