How the Iraq war would affect Indonesia<\/p>\n
Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, Former Governor,
\nNational Resilience Institute, (Lemhanas), Jakarta<\/p>\n
War in Iraq seems to be inevitable now and it is only a matter of
\ndays, or even hours, before the U.S. military machine starts to
\nroll. The Azores summit and, in particular, statements by
\nPresident George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, which
\nstressed the need for maintaining credibility, are clear and
\nstrong indications of the inevitability of war. The important
\nquestion for us in Indonesia is how that war could affect us and
\nour country.<\/p>\n
The duration of the war and performance of the U.S. military
\nwill significantly determine how the war will affect the world,
\nincluding Indonesia. The duration of the war includes military
\noperations to defeat the Iraq military resistance but also the
\nconsolidation of this military success to achieve its political
\nobjectives.<\/p>\n
With its military-technological superiority, the U.S. will be
\nable to defeat Iraqi regular military resistance very quickly.
\nThat does not mean, however, that consolidation of the military
\nsuccess for political purposes will also be short. The U.S. has
\npropagated that it would make the new Iraq an example for the
\nwhole Middle East in terms of democracy, peaceful attitude toward
\nneighbors and good governance.<\/p>\n
That political objective is very lofty but not easy to achieve
\nconsidering the social, psychological and political conditions
\nwithin the Iraqi nation and community. And although it is almost
\ncertain that military operations will be short, there is always a
\npossibility that even a technologically weak army can make a
\ndrawn-out defense. It very much depends on the performance of
\nU.S. military and political personnel to achieve that end as soon
\nas possible.<\/p>\n
In general, the influence of the war on the world, including
\nIndonesia, will have three main consequences: economic,
\npolitical-psychological and security. The longer the war and its
\nconsolidation aftermath, the more negatively it will affect the
\nworld. A few days ago this newspaper published a prediction by
\ntop world economists that a quick victory would cost the U.S.
\nhalf a trillion dollars by 2010, while a long war could cost
\nUS$1.9 trillion for the next decade. They add however, that the
\nbill does not assume a nightmare scenario.<\/p>\n
A wounded U.S. economy would have bad consequences for other
\nnations, even for China, which is demonstrating growth of more
\nthan 7 percent, let alone for Indonesia, which has not yet fully
\nrecovered from the economic crisis of 1997. Even now, before the
\nwar in Iraq, the Indonesian economy faces grave problems.
\nInvestments have been decreasing since 2001, which has caused
\nunemployment to grow alarmingly.<\/p>\n
It is reported that exports stagnated in 2002 and there was
\nnegative export growth during the first semester of 2003. Private
\nconsumption, which has been a strong factor for growth, is now
\nalso decreasing. If this weak economy has to bear the
\nconsequences of war in Iraq, including the troubled U.S. economy
\nand a high probability of increased oil prices, we must assume
\nthat Indonesia will experience very difficult problems.<\/p>\n
The political-psychological consequences of war in Iraq on
\nIndonesia will be no less difficult for President Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri and her government. Irrespective of whether the
\nU.S. attack is based on a UN mandate or not, the reaction among
\nthe Indonesian people, Muslims in particular, will be very
\nfierce. People cannot accept that the Iraqi people should become
\nvictims of a U.S.-led illegitimate and unjust war. People do not
\nobject that Saddam Hussein should go, but they cannot agree that
\nthis objective should be achieved by sacrificing the Iraqi
\npeople, who have already suffered so much since Saddam's war
\nagainst Iran (ironically supported by the U.S. and its weapons)
\nand the first Gulf War in 1991.<\/p>\n
People's reaction could take the form of a strengthening of
\nanti-Americanism that Indonesia could ill afford. Its economic
\ndependency on the U.S. is a fact that cannot be changed within a
\nshort time. More dangerous is a strengthening of radicalization
\namong younger Muslims. That would make it difficult for moderate
\nMuslim leaders to control their organizations. It would also make
\nit easier for them to be infiltrated by terrorist elements. It is
\nnot impossible that solidarity with the Iraqi people might take
\nthe form of retaliation against U.S. interests within Indonesia.
\nSince Prime Minister John Howard has also shown support for a
\nU.S. war against Iraq, Australian interests would not be free
\nfrom danger either.<\/p>\n
A combination of economic and psychological-political problems
\nwould further weaken security. This could take the form of
\nincreased terrorist attacks also targeting Indonesian government
\nand non-Muslim facilities. In reaction, non-Muslim people,
\nparticularly outside Java, could take up arms, perhaps even with
\nforeign support. Separatist moves in the East Indonesian region
\ncould aggravate.<\/p>\n
In Java, worsening economic conditions could increase
\ncriminality, in quality as well as quantity. The police would
\nface great difficulty in tackling all these security problems on
\nJava and outside. The limited strength of the police could make
\nit impossible for them to face all these troubles simultaneously,
\nyet effectively.<\/p>\n
The political climate would also darken because political
\nparties are preparing for the 2004 general election. Fanatic
\nmembers of each party would defend their party's political
\ntargets and physical exchanges between competing parties could
\noccur at any time. Party leaders, supported by sympathetic
\nstudent organizations, who had been planning to topple Megawati
\nbefore 2004, would have a better opportunity and a more suitable
\nclimate in which to achieve their aims. The Megawati government
\nwould be in a very weak position, as it would not be capable of
\ncreating a situation that was acceptable to the majority of the
\npopulation. Ordinary people simply wish to be able to support
\ntheir families and feel secure in their everyday lives.<\/p>\n
The big question is how strong people's dissatisfaction would
\nbe and whether they would be willing to accept that Megawati
\nremain in power. On the other hand, how would Megawati and her
\nministers be able to mobilize support for their remaining time in
\noffice before the elections? Could she and her assistants
\nconvince people that a change before the elections would not
\nsatisfy the public's aspirations, apart from the fact that it
\nwould also harm the democratic process?<\/p>\n
All in all, it would be a very difficult time for Indonesia:
\nHow the situation will resolve itself is far from clear.<\/p>",
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