War reignited after Iran attacked at least three commercial vessels\nin the Strait of Hormuz last Tuesday, as claimed by United States\nofficials and international maritime authorities.<\/p>\n
The attacks targeted a Saudi Arabian oil tanker and a Qatari-owned\nliquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier. The incident prompted the United\nStates to revoke a temporary waiver on Iranian oil export sanctions.<\/p>\n
The waiver was one of the major concessions in the memorandum of\nunderstanding (MoU) agreed by the United States and Iran last month.\nThat deal allowed Tehran to resume oil exports after its tanker fleet\nbecame trapped by a US Navy blockade.<\/p>\n
In retaliation, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said last\nWednesday it had struck more than 80 targets in Iran, including air\ndefence systems, radars, and more than 60 fast boats belonging to the\nIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that have long been used to\nharass shipping.<\/p>\n
The US military said on Thursday (9 July) it launched a new wave of\nattacks on around 90 targets in Iran.<\/p>\n
CENTCOM said the operation aimed to \u201cimpose a very heavy cost for\ntargeting and attacking commercial vessels crewed by innocent civilians\nin international shipping lanes.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran then responded by launching fresh missile attacks against\nseveral Gulf states. Air raid sirens and explosions were reported in\nBahrain and Kuwait. Further attacks were also reported on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Responding to the escalation, maritime security firm MARISKS warned\nthat the tit-for-tat actions \u201cmark the return of direct military\nconfrontation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ahead of the NATO summit in Turkey, US President Donald Trump said\nthe MoU with Iran was now \u201cover\u201d. He added: \u201cDealing with them [Tehran]\nis just a waste of time.\u201d<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, China and Qatar called for de-escalation of the conflict.\nGerman Defence Minister Boris Pistorius also urged Tehran to stop\nprovocations against Washington and end attacks on commercial\nvessels.<\/p>\n
Why did Iran attack ships in Hormuz again?<\/p>\n
Iran is trying to maintain its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, the sea\nlane through which roughly one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil and gas exports\nfrom the Gulf region passed before the war, bound for destinations\nworldwide.<\/p>\n
Iran effectively closed the strait after US and Israeli air strikes\nkilled a number of senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah\nAli Khamenei, on 28 February. Iran subsequently attacked around a dozen\nships trapped in the strait before last month\u2019s fragile ceasefire\nagreement was reached.<\/p>\n
In the days leading up to Tuesday\u2019s attacks, peace negotiations had\nshown almost no progress on various outstanding issues, including the\nlong-term lifting of US sanctions and Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions.<\/p>\n
Iran has repeatedly used Hormuz as a bargaining chip in negotiations\nwhenever diplomatic channels reached an impasse. In addition, Tehran has\nlaunched attacks on Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab\nEmirates, and Qatar.<\/p>\n
For Tehran, attacking major oil-producing countries that are also key\nUS allies is a way to pressure Washington and spread instability so that\nthe Middle East region also feels the impact of the war.<\/p>\n
How much leverage does Tehran have?<\/p>\n
Repeated US and Israeli attacks have crippled much of Iran\u2019s military\nstrength. But rather than engaging in conventional warfare, Tehran has\nwaged asymmetric warfare by targeting strategic US facilities in the\nGulf and blockading the world\u2019s oil routes.<\/p>\n
Although Iran does not legally own the Strait of Hormuz, it controls\nthe northern coastline, a number of strategic islands, and coastal\npositions that allow the IRGC to monitor and threaten passing\nvessels.<\/p>\n
Iran uses fast attack craft, coastal missiles, mines, and drones to\nattack tankers. These tactics have succeeded in disrupting global energy\nsupplies without engaging in full-scale naval battles.<\/p>\n
According to various reports, Iran has also begun charging up to US$2\nmillion, or around Rp36 billion, per ship to guarantee safe passage\nthrough Hormuz. Maritime experts have condemned the move as illegal.<\/p>\n
Iran insists ships must use shipping lanes it designates in its\nnorthern territorial waters. The US, by contrast, supports the use of\nroutes closer to Omani waters.<\/p>\n
However, Tehran\u2019s coercive power is not unlimited. The White House\nresponded by imposing a naval blockade at Hormuz preventing Iranian\nships from exporting oil, cutting off one of Iran\u2019s most important\nsources of revenue.<\/p>\n
Until now, Iran has continued exporting oil in violation of US\nsanctions, mainly to China, at below-market prices.<\/p>\n
Tehran uses a shadow fleet of tankers that frequently change flags,\noperate without tracking systems, and transfer cargo between ships to\nevade detection.<\/p>\n
Yet without the sanctions waiver and with the possibility of a US\nNavy blockade being reimposed, Iran now faces serious risks to an\neconomy already in tatters.<\/p>\n
According to the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense\nof Democracies, the war has caused economic losses totalling US$144\nbillion for Iran, plus billions of dollars more from oil revenue lost\nduring the blockade.<\/p>\n
The rial has also plunged to its lowest level in history, at around\n1.7 million rial per US dollar, while inflation has soared past 88 per\ncent.<\/p>\n
Iran rejects intimidation<\/p>\n
In its latest statement, MARISKS said the revocation of sanctions\nwaivers for Iran \u201cerodes the political foundation\u201d of the peace deal\nwhile \u201creducing the incentive to continue exercising restraint.\u201d<\/p>\n
The maritime intelligence firm warned that \u201cthe likelihood of further\nescalation has increased significantly.\u201d<\/p>\n
Although Trump said negotiations would probably continue, he\ndescribed Iran as being led by \u201csick people\u201d and made clear he no longer\nwished to deal with the regime.<\/p>\n
A US official quoted by Bloomberg urged Tehran to act responsibly if\nit wishes to enjoy the benefits offered by the joint memorandum of\nunderstanding.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, Iran has maintained a defiant stance. Parliament\nSpeaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf wrote on X: \u201cThe era of intimidation and\nextortion has ended. That approach will not produce results. We will not\nsurrender.\u201d<\/p>\n
As oil prices jumped 5 per cent following the latest escalation, a\nnumber of analysts warned that further American attacks would most\nlikely not change Tehran\u2019s strategy.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the contrary, such a move risks pushing both sides further away\nfrom a negotiated outcome that \u2026 apparently remains the preferred option\nfor both Washington and Tehran,\u201d wrote Dennis Citrinowicz, a visiting\nfellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, on X.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/how-risky-is-irans-move-to-double-down-on-pressure-via-hormuz-1783943648", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }