How Climate Change and Food Insecurity Could Fuel Conflicts<\/p>\n
Reporter<\/p>\n
September 6, 2026 | 07:23 pm<\/p>\n
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The world\u2019s food system is under growing stress,\nand new research is pointing to areas where this could lead to\nconflict.<\/p>\n
Severe droughts and extreme weather are damaging harvests in many\nregions. A developing El Ni\u00f1o event is even threatening to worsen food\nshortages for millions of people next year. At the same time, wars and\ngeopolitical tensions are disrupting supply chains that keep food and\nfarm supplies moving.<\/p>\n
The war in Ukraine has repeatedly shaken grain markets, while the\nIran war\u2019s impact on the Strait of Hormuz has driven up fuel and\nfertilizer prices, increasing costs for farmers everywhere.<\/p>\n
Experts have long warned that rising food insecurity could fuel\ninstability. When people can no longer feed their families, they argue\nover land, water, and other resources \u2014 or they move. In fragile\ncountries, these pressures can contribute to social unrest and even\narmed conflict.<\/p>\n
Now, new research has suggested where some of these risks are\ngreatest. The Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI),\ndeveloped by Hannes Mueller and his colleagues, maps how climate change\nis reshaping agricultural productivity around the world. \u201cThe heaviest\nlosses are in the tropical regions,\u201d said Mueller, a researcher at the\nInstitute for Economic Analysis and the Barcelona School of\nEconomics.<\/p>\n
Climate change is already reducing food production in many parts of\nthe world. Hundreds of millions of people live in areas where harvests\nare smaller than 30 years ago. Mueller mentioned Cambodia, Bangladesh,\nBurundi, Nigeria, Paraguayand El Salvador as countries where\nagricultural losses are already being felt.<\/p>\n
\u201cNorthern Africa is another region we should pay much more attention\nto. If you look at the map, it just looks terrible. It really looks\nhorrible,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
And climate change is only one part of the story. Wars, trade\ndisruptions, export bans, and rising fertilizer costs can magnify food\ninsecurity.<\/p>\n
Within the next 25 years, nearly half of the world\u2019s people could be\nliving in areas where farms are producing less food.<\/p>\n
New winners, losers, and conflicts<\/p>\n
These pressures can undermine governments, help cause migration, and\nmake it easier for armed groups to recruit fighters. In societies that\nare already unstable, such factors can push them toward crisis.<\/p>\n
Yet CADI\u2019s research points to a surprising reality: Gains in\nagricultural productivity also appear to increase the risk of violence.\nMueller said the key issue is not just scarcity, but change. The climate\ncrisis and other shocks do not simply make some regions poorer. They\nalso create new opportunities, changing the value of land and\nresources.<\/p>\n
In some places, land that had been marginal becomes more productive\nand more valuable. And that attracts investors and produces competition\nfor ownership and access.<\/p>\n
So countries that appear to benefit overall may face new tensions.\nSudan, for example, is projected to produce more food as the climate\nchanges. But while some areas could become more productive, others may\nsuffer losses, creating new winners and losers within the country and\nincreasing the risk of conflict.<\/p>\n
This looming instability, Mueller said, also applies to areas where\nthe change in productivity hasn\u2019t even happened yet. \u201cIf we know that\nyour land is going to become more productive, maybe I want to grab it\nfrom you today. That is exactly where negotiations break down and where\nwe will have violence,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Even in stable, wealthy regions, the climate crisis is creating\nfuture problems. It may seem trivial, but the change in grape-growing\noptions in Europe is affecting local farmers. Major producers of\nsparkling wine have started to buy up land in mountainous regions.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is not productive yet, but they already know where future grape\nharvests will be,\u201d Mueller said. \u201cBig agricultural companies are buying\nland. This is happening all over the world. Locals are displaced because\nlarge producers come in, land prices rise, and you start having fights\nabout something that is still 20 or 30 years in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n
One of the CADI team\u2019s most striking findings is that agricultural\nchange is more likely to lead to conflict in non-democracies. When\nclimate shocks, food insecurity, and competition over resources hit\ndemocracies, they tend to have institutions that force competing\ninterests to negotiate rather than fight.<\/p>\n
\u201cDemocracies may look annoying and cumbersome. Nothing moves as fast\nas people want. But this is a great thing because it makes people talk\nto each other,\u201d Mueller said. \u201cThere is a platform for negotiation.\nThere are institutions that help people negotiate. That process of\nconstantly finding solutions is at the heart of what prevents\nconflict.\u201d<\/p>\n
South Asia as a warning sign<\/p>\n
\u201cWe do not pay enough attention to the threats to the source of our\nlivelihoods,\u201d said Abdullah Fahimi of the think tank German Council on\nForeign Relations (DGAP). \u201cThese threats can trigger major crises and\ndisplace millions and millions of people. The regions we should watch\nmost closely are South Asia and the Sahel, where climate vulnerability\nand rapid population growth mean the number of people affected could\nrise dramatically.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fahimi said South Asia stands out because it depends on both\nvulnerable water supplies and global food markets. Food prices have\nalready risen significantly over the past decades. \u201cSouth Asia, with a\npopulation of around 2 billion, is highly dependent on imports,\u201d he\nadded. Those imports include wheat, maize, and palm oil from countries\nincluding Russia, Ukraine, Canada, and Malaysia.<\/p>\n
At the same time, local agriculture is increasingly threatened by\nheat waves, floods, declining land productivity, and saltwater intrusion\nfrom rising sea levels.<\/p>\n
As well as the immediate human toll, events such as the devastating\nfloods that struck Nepal in August 2026 offer a glimpse of the long-term\nchallenges that could become more common in the future. \u201cThe Himalayas\nand the Hindu Kush mountain ranges supply most of the water for\nagriculture and drinking water in the region,\u201d Fahimi said. \u201cBecause of\nclimate change, the glaciers and snow are melting very fast.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the short term, meltwater could increase water availability. But\nlater in the century, he warned, the region could face \u201ca huge\nhumanitarian crisis that could affect around 2 billion people.\u201d<\/p>\n
As food insecurity deepens, the social and political consequences can\nmultiply. \u201cWhen resource scarcities or the impacts of climate change\nforce people to look for other livelihood opportunities, sometimes they\nend up being hired by terrorist groups,\u201d said Fahimi, who cited examples\nfrom Nigeria and Afghanistan.<\/p>\n
In other cases, public frustration is directed at governments if they\nfail to mitigate the effects on people\u2019s livelihoods. Their legitimacy\nis questioned, and this can escalate into violent conflict.<\/p>\n
That echoes Mueller\u2019s broader conclusion. Climate change, wars, and\ntrade disruptions do not automatically lead to conflict. But climate\nadaptation cannot just be about growing different crops or using new\ntechnologies. People and societies also need to adapt to changes in who\nhas access to land, water and jobs.<\/p>\n
The key question is whether societies have institutions that can\nmanage these changes. Where governments, courts, and local institutions\ncan help communities negotiate new realities, shocks may be absorbed.\nWhere those institutions are weak, the pressure on food systems may\nbecome a pressure on peace itself.<\/p>\n
Read: 2026-27 US Winter Forecast: Pockets of Snowfall as El Nino\nGrows<\/p>\n
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