The world\u2019s food system is under growing pressure, and new research\nidentifies a number of areas that could experience conflict as a\nresult.<\/p>\n
Severe drought and extreme weather are damaging harvests across the\nglobe. The developing El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon even threatens to worsen food\nshortages for millions of people next year. At the same time, war and\ngeopolitical tensions are disrupting food supply chains and agricultural\ninputs.<\/p>\n
The war in Ukraine has repeatedly shaken global grain markets, whilst\nthe impact of the Iran war on the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up fuel\nand fertiliser prices, raising costs for farmers worldwide.<\/p>\n
Experts have long warned that rising food insecurity can trigger\ninstability. When people can no longer feed their families, they will\ncompete for land, water and other resources, or be forced to migrate. In\nalready fragile countries, such pressures can fuel social unrest and\neven armed conflict.<\/p>\n
New research now reveals the regions facing the greatest risk. The\nClimate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI), developed by Laura\nMayoral, Hannes Mueller and colleagues, maps how climate change is\naltering agricultural productivity across the world.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe largest losses occur in the tropics,\u201d said Mueller, a researcher\nat the Institute for Economic Analysis and the Barcelona School of\nEconomics.<\/p>\n
Climate change has already reduced food production in many parts of\nthe world. Hundreds of millions of people live in regions where harvests\nare smaller than 30 years ago. Mueller cited Australia, Argentina,\nMoldova, Nigeria, Romania, the United States and Sudan as countries\nalready feeling the effects of declining agricultural productivity.<\/p>\n
\u201cNorth Africa is another region we need to pay far more attention to.\nLooking at the map, the situation is dire. Truly dire,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Climate change is only part of the problem. War, trade disruptions,\nexport bans and rising fertiliser costs could worsen food insecurity\nfurther.<\/p>\n
Over the next 25 years, nearly half the world\u2019s population could live\nin regions where farmland produces less food.<\/p>\n
Winners, losers, and new conflicts<\/p>\n
These pressures can weaken governance, drive migration and make it\neasier for armed groups to recruit new members. In already unstable\nsocieties, such factors can push them towards crisis.<\/p>\n
However, the CADI research reveals a surprising finding. Increases in\nagricultural productivity also appear to raise the risk of violence.\nMueller said the core of the problem is not scarcity per se, but change\nitself. Climate crises and other shocks do not simply make some regions\npoorer; they also create new opportunities, altering the value of land\nand resources.<\/p>\n
In some places, previously unproductive land becomes more fertile and\nmore valuable. This attracts investors and generates competition over\nownership and access.<\/p>\n
Sudan, for instance, is projected to produce more food as the climate\nchanges, but whilst some regions may become more productive, others may\nsuffer losses, creating winners and losers within the same country and\nraising the risk of conflict.<\/p>\n
This lurking instability, Mueller said, also applies to regions where\nproductivity has not yet changed. \u201cIf we know that your land will become\nmore productive, perhaps I want to seize it from you today. That is\nprecisely where negotiations break down and where we will face\nviolence,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Even in stable, wealthy regions, the climate crisis is creating\nfuture problems. Changing conditions for viticulture in Europe, for\nexample, have already affected local farmers. Major sparkling wine\nproducers have begun buying land in mountainous areas.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat land is not productive now, but they already know where the\nvineyards of the future will be,\u201d said Mueller. \u201cLarge agricultural\ncompanies are buying up land. This is happening all over the world.\nLocal populations are being displaced as big producers move in, land\nprices rise, and disputes begin over something that is still 20 or 30\nyears away.\u201d<\/p>\n
One of the most striking findings from the CADI team is that\nagricultural change is more likely to end in conflict in non-democratic\ncountries. When climate shocks, food insecurity and resource competition\nstrike democracies, they tend to have institutions that force competing\ninterests to negotiate rather than fight.<\/p>\n
\u201cDemocracy may seem frustrating and laborious. Nothing moves as fast\nas people would like, but it is an extraordinary thing because it makes\npeople talk to one another,\u201d said Mueller. \u201cThere is a platform for\nnegotiation. There are institutions that help people negotiate. That\nongoing process of seeking solutions is the essence of what prevents\nconflict.\u201d<\/p>\n
South Asia as a warning sign<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are not paying enough attention to threats to our sources of\nlivelihood,\u201d said Abdullah Fahimi of the German Council on Foreign\nRelations (DGAP). \u201cThese threats can trigger major crises and displace\nmillions of people. The regions we must watch most closely are South\nAsia and the Sahel, where climate vulnerability and rapid population\ngrowth mean the number of people affected could skyrocket.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fahimi said South Asia stands out because it depends on both\nvulnerable water supplies and the global food market. Food prices have\nalready risen significantly in recent decades. \u201cSouth Asia, with a\npopulation of around two billion, is heavily dependent on imports,\u201d he\nadded. Those imports include wheat, maize and palm oil from countries\nincluding Russia, Ukraine, Canada and Malaysia.<\/p>\n
At the same time, local agriculture is increasingly threatened by\nheatwaves, floods, declining land productivity and seawater intrusion\ncaused by rising sea levels.<\/p>\n
The devastating floods that struck Nepal in August 2026, beyond the\nimmediate loss of life, also offered a picture of the long-term\nchallenges that could become more frequent. \u201cThe Himalayas and the Hindu\nKush mountains supply most of the water for agriculture and drinking\nwater in this region,\u201d said Fahimi. \u201cBecause of climate change, glaciers\nand snow are melting extremely quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the short term, melting ice may increase water availability.\nHowever, by the latter half of this century, he warned, the region could\nface \u201ca major humanitarian crisis affecting around two billion\npeople.\u201d<\/p>\n
As food insecurity worsens, its social and political consequences\nmultiply. \u201cWhen resource scarcity or the impacts of climate change force\npeople to seek other livelihoods, they sometimes end up being recruited\nby terrorist groups,\u201d said Fahimi, citing examples from Nigeria and\nAfghanistan.<\/p>\n
In other cases, public frustration is directed at governments if they\nfail to mitigate the impact on people\u2019s livelihoods. Their legitimacy is\ncalled into question, and this can escalate into violent conflict.<\/p>\n
This echoes Mueller\u2019s broader conclusion. Climate change, war and\ntrade disruptions do not automatically lead to conflict. However,\nclimate adaptation cannot merely be about planting different crops or\nadopting new technology. People and societies must also adapt to changes\nin who has access to land, water and jobs.<\/p>\n
The key question is whether societies have institutions capable of\nmanaging these changes. Where governments, courts and local institutions\ncan help communities negotiate new realities, shocks may be absorbed.\nWhere such institutions are weak, pressure on the food system can turn\ninto pressure on peace itself.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/how-climate-change-and-food-crises-could-spark-future-conflicts-1788782069", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }