PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia has highlighted the ongoing trend\nof declining consumer confidence over the past three months as a signal\nof increasing caution among households amid economic uncertainties and\nglobal pressures.<\/p>\n
The Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) was recorded at 122.9 in March\n2026, down from 125.2 the previous month, marking the lowest level in\nthe last five months. Although still above the optimism threshold of\n100, this downward trend is seen to reflect changing consumer\nexpectations for future prospects, rather than just current\nconditions.<\/p>\n
Research Analyst at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, Novani Karina\nSaputri, assesses that this weakening is beginning to impact societal\nconsumption patterns. The sharpest decline was in the business activity\nexpectations component, which fell 5.4 points, followed by job\navailability expectations down 3.7 points, and income expectations down\n3.0 points.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe IKK decline for three consecutive months reflects consumer\nexpectations for the future that tend to continue weakening. However, as\nlong as the IKK remains above 100, we assess that household consumption\nremains sufficiently strong to drive growth, albeit with an increasingly\ndefensive composition. Expenditure will be more concentrated on primary\nneeds, while purchases of durable and discretionary goods tend to be\nrestrained,\u201d said Novani.<\/p>\n
The weakening was more pronounced in the upper-middle income group\nwith monthly expenditures of Rp2.1-4 million and above Rp5 million,\nwhich historically are more sensitive to changes in macroeconomic\nexpectations. On the other hand, the increased share of consumption in\nthe low-income group indicates pressure on purchasing power starting to\nbe felt by vulnerable segments.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe labour market dynamics are the most determining factor at\npresent. This pressure is exacerbated by energy inflation and rupiah\nweakening that raises the price of imported goods, thus eroding\nhouseholds\u2019 real purchasing power. Recovery will very much depend on\nlabour market stability, controlled inflation, and certainty in fiscal\npolicy direction,\u201d added Novani.<\/p>\n
On the corporate side, Mirae Asset Sekuritas also sees recovery\npotential in the commodities sector along with strong nickel downstream\ndemand. This is reflected in the increased recommendation for PT Vale\nIndonesia Tbk (INCO) to Buy with a target price of Rp7,400 per\nshare.<\/p>\n
Senior Research Analyst at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia,\nMuhammad Farras Farhan, assesses that the company\u2019s performance is\nbeginning to show solid improvement. Q4-2025 revenue grew 17.8%\nyear-on-year to USD285 million, while full-year 2025 net profit\nincreased 31.7% to USD76 million.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe nickel sector is in an interesting phase. INCO benefits from the\nstill high nickel ore premium and increasingly strong revenue\ndiversification. We see 2026 as a proof year for the company, with\nEBITDA margins projected to reach 33.3% from 21.4% in 2025,\u201d said\nFarras.<\/p>\n
Going forward, nickel ore sales volume is projected to surge 304%\nyear-on-year to 9.4 million wmt, supported by demand from High-Pressure\nAcid Leach (HPAL) projects and potential RKAB approval increases. Mirae\nAsset projects EBITDA of USD478 million, or 126% growth, and net profit\nof USD242 million, or 218% year-on-year surge.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe main catalysts that investors need to watch are the certainty of\nRKAB approval, which will open up room for increased ore sales volume,\nas well as developments in HPAL project realisation as a medium-term\ndemand driver,\u201d concluded Farras.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/household-consumption-becoming-increasingly-defensive-this-sector-presents-investment-opportunities-bca-1776189084", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }