Hopes, fears about Cabinet<\/p>\n
By Jusuf Wanandi<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The new Cabinet is Megawati's personal cabinet.
\nWhile she sought advice from all her advisers, (including her
\nparty's board, her husband and others, such as senior politician
\nFrans Seda and her assistant Bambang Kesowo), she was the one
\nthat decided on the structure and personnel. She received some
\nnames from the political parties, but made her own choice from
\nthe list.<\/p>\n
This should immediately negate the accusation that she is
\nunable to decide on her own. It did take her two weeks to come to
\nthe decision, but she has now formed a reasonable team composed
\nof representatives from political parties, including her own. She
\nneeded to bring in political party representatives to get their
\nsupport in the legislature regarding law-making and the budget.<\/p>\n
Her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid, or Gus Dur, did not
\nseriously take this into consideration, although his party had
\nonly 10 percent of the seats, compared with 34 percent for
\nMegawati's. Apart from politicians, however, Megawati also needs
\nprofessionals and technocrats, especially in the economics field,
\nto overcome her most immediate challenge: the economic crisis.<\/p>\n
The immediate public reaction to the economics team has been
\nsomewhat mixed. Her economics team consists of two technocrats,
\nnamely Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti as coordinating minister, and
\nBoediono as finance minister, two from her party, namely
\nLaksamana Sukardi as minister of state for state enterprises, and
\nKwik Kian Gie in charge of development planning. They form the
\ncore of the economics portfolio.<\/p>\n
There is some worry because Dorodjatun's training is not
\npurely economics, and he is not known to be a hands-on man.
\nBoediono, on the other hand, is a credible technocrat and has the
\nmost experience in the bureaucracy of the four. Both are backed
\nby the technocrats who were under former presidential adviser
\nWidjojo Nitisastro. This gives a positive signal to the
\ninternational community, but is viewed with some ambivalence by
\nthe Indonesian public.<\/p>\n
Laksamana is excellent in the eyes of the private sector in
\ngeneral, and from a domestic or international perspective. Kwik,
\non the other hand, has a very controversial reputation and is not
\ntrusted by big business, national and international, because of
\nhis populist rhetoric and earlier controversial policies.<\/p>\n
In addition, there is Minister of Industry and Trade Rini M.S.
\nSoewandi, who is also controversial. She is a businesswoman, with
\na performance considered to be not too outstanding, and there are
\nfears that she might bestow favors upon her many business
\npartners. There is a greater worry about Minister of Manpower
\nJacob Nuwa Wea, since he is a labor leader with a negative
\nreputation in the business world. He has to learn a lot about the
\noverall economic and business environment and the role of being a
\nminister. However, it may well be that he could lead labor to
\nbecome more cooperative instead of confrontational.<\/p>\n
Finally, there is the worry that coordinating a bunch of
\nprima donnas among the economic ministers is no joke for
\nDorodjatun. President Megawati has given him real coordinating
\npower. Nevertheless, as she is President after all, she might
\nhave to intervene once in a while, if necessary, to make the
\ncoordination work.<\/p>\n
She was able to do so in the last few months of her vice
\npresidency while Gus Dur was thinking only about his political
\nsurvival. She took the necessary critical decisions in restoring
\nrelations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) against the
\nwishes of the then coordinating minister. For that she adjusted
\nand restructured the budget in line with the IMF-supported
\nprogram, she postponed the amendment of the law on the central
\nbank, and she decided to remove fuel subsidies.<\/p>\n
These were all brave decisions, although she did not get the
\ncredit for them, because the media's attention was on Gus Dur's
\nsurvival efforts. The economic programs are obvious, and
\nMegawati's commitment and support are critically important
\nbecause only she has the authority to ask for people's sacrifices
\nin overcoming the economic crisis; especially given the above
\nshortcomings of the economic team, which might not completely be
\ntrusted by the private sector.<\/p>\n
The political security team is more compact and will be easier
\nto coordinate. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as coordinating minister
\nhas some experience. Making decisions may not be his strength,
\nbut he is capable of coordinating. His team is a relatively
\nstrong one. Matori Abdul Djalil as defense minister might be the
\nmost principled politician in furthering political reforms. The
\npublic, including students and non-governmental organizations
\n(NGOs), might respect him for his consistency and principled way
\nof politicking.<\/p>\n
The way in which he supported constitutionalism and democracy
\nby attending the last Special Session of the People's
\nConsultative Assembly, despite being censored by Gus Dur and
\nlater being thrown out of his National Awakening Party and losing
\nthe chairmanship for that, was definitely a \"profile in courage\"
\nthat is exceptional in Indonesian politics. During the last years
\nof Soeharto he worked closely with retired servicemen in
\nestablishing a movement for democracy. For that he has earned the
\nrespect of the Indonesian Military (TNI). Because of those
\nqualifications and experiences, he is qualified to reform the
\nmilitary and to get it back on its feet again.<\/p>\n
Hari Sabarno, a serviceman, has been in the legislature for
\nsome time and is an open-minded person. He was earlier
\nresponsible for territorial affairs at TNI Headquarters. Since
\nhome affairs nowadays will deal mainly with the implementation of
\ndecentralization and autonomy, he should be capable of overseeing
\nthis process.<\/p>\n
Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda is a professional diplomat,
\nand is one of the brightest in the foreign service. Not only is
\nhe well-versed in diplomacy, with an excellent demeanor, but he
\nalso has an open eye for political realities in Indonesia. He is
\nthe one who took the initiative to talk to the representatives of
\nthe Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in Geneva with Gus Dur's support,
\nand crafted the cease-fire agreements with them. He also
\ninitiated some movements to help turn GAM into a political force
\nin the future.<\/p>\n
Since the Aceh problem is among the priorities of Megawati's
\ngovernment, he definitely could assist in efforts to find a
\npolitical and negotiated settlement to the insurgency. During Gus
\nDur's presidency, Hassan was the one who tried to hold
\nIndonesia's foreign policy on an even keel. This was definitely
\nnot an easy job.<\/p>\n
The appointment of A.M. Hendropriyono as head of the National
\nIntelligence Agency (BIN) could become a source of criticism from
\nhuman rights NGOs, given suspicions of his abuse of human rights
\nduring his tenure as local commander in Lampung in the 1980s.
\nAdm. Widodo stays as TNI Commander until his retirement in
\nseveral months' time, and may be replaced by Army chief
\nEndriartono Sutarto. Both are respected for their very
\nresponsible and constitutional behavior during the last political
\ncrisis of Gus Dur's presidency. Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu, now
\nCommander of the Army's Strategic Reserve (Kostrad), is expected
\nto become the new Army chief.<\/p>\n
The immediate program of the political team will be Aceh, West
\nIrian and other regional disturbances, as well as the law and
\norder problems in other places. Aceh requires an immediate
\nsolution because it has become nasty again, with over 700 killed
\nin the last seven months. A coordinator for Aceh at the
\ncoordinating minister's office is a prerequisite for the
\ngovernment to be able to pay constant attention to daily events
\nand developments there and how to respond to them.<\/p>\n
A team of negotiators at the center, with a respected national
\nfigure at is head, is needed, while on the Aceh side a group of
\nAcehnese leaders has yet to be identified. Some facilitation and
\nsupport should be expected from the regional and international
\ncommunity, in the same way that Indonesia participated with
\nrepresentatives of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in
\nnegotiations with the Moro rebels of the South Philippines, to
\nachieve a peaceful resolution of that conflict.<\/p>\n
In conclusion, the Cabinet is better than expected. Despite
\nsome weak spots, it has generally received the support and has
\nthe necessary expertise to succeed over the next two years.
\nHowever, Cabinet members, especially the economics team, must
\nrecognize their weaknesses and do their best to rectify them.<\/p>\n
In addition, most critical to restoring confidence in the
\ngovernment is the selection of the attorney general. President
\nMegawati has asked for a few more days to make the selection.
\nThis is understandable, but the end result must be the choice of
\na credible person. If not, much of the effort by the Cabinet will
\nend up in frustration and failure.<\/p>\n
The writer is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Centre
\nfor Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.<\/p>",
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