Happy anniversary, Mr. President<\/p>\n
By Donna K Woodward<\/p>\n
MEDAN (JP): Is Indonesia better off with President Abdurrahman
\nWahid than it would be without him? In October 1999 this question
\nwould have been unthinkable; Abdurrahman seemed the only viable
\nhope for national unity.<\/p>\n
By August 2000 the unthinkable question was being asked. The
\nPeople's Consultative Assembly (MPR) answered affirmatively,
\nthough barely so, when it decided against calling for
\nimpeachment.<\/p>\n
But the question has not gone away. The President has failed
\nto achieve the reforms that people wanted when they toppled
\nSoeharto and rejected B.J. Habibie. Abdurrahman disregards the
\nchecks-and-balances role of the legislature and the MPR.<\/p>\n
Democracies need presidencies that are strong but also subject
\nto control; strength with control brings stability. Strength
\ncomes from popular support; control, from a checks-and-balances
\nsystem.<\/p>\n
President Abdurrahman's failures have cost him support on both
\nthe public and the legislature fronts. This loss of support,
\ncoupled with the chronic opportunism of some politicians,
\nsuggests that for the foreseeable future Indonesia will remain
\nunstable, politically and economically.<\/p>\n
Prolonged instability could degenerate into anarchy. Economic
\nregression most certainly will leave the country more beholden
\nthan ever to foreign creditors and investors, leading to a loss
\nof sovereignty much greater than what today's opportunistic
\npseudonationalists can imagine.<\/p>\n
An amateurish guerrilla war of independence or secession is
\nall but declared in Aceh and threatens to be copycatted in Irian
\nJaya. Rumors of coups shadow the government. Physically blind,
\nthe President is now on the brink of becoming permanently
\nparalyzed as a leader. He looks more and more like an ordinary
\nbureaucratic in-fighter, instead of the reformer he might have
\nbecome.<\/p>\n
This is what the President and Indonesians face when
\ncontemplating the future. The President still has time -- perhaps
\nnot much -- to shape the answer to the question that opened this
\nessay. If he does not, the answer might be shaped for him by the
\nMPR -- or by some ambitious well-funded general in collusion with
\nan even more ambitious politician.<\/p>\n
What would Indonesia look like without Abdurrahman Wahid as
\nPresident? First, the question should not offend; it is just
\nbelow the surface of many discussions.<\/p>\n
An exercise in imagining alternate futures is a management
\ntool, not an invitation to change. A premature change of
\ngovernment would cause disruptions that Indonesia can ill afford.<\/p>\n
But if economic instability, social unrest and rogue military
\nviolence continue, there may be little choice left but to
\nconsider a constitutionally legitimate change of leadership. It
\nbehooves the country's caretakers to imagine possible futures.
\nIt behooves the President to do the same, and not be lulled any
\nlonger into avoiding reform by a false sense of indispensability.<\/p>\n
What would Indonesia look like without Abdurrahman as
\nPresident? In the first instance it would mean a Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri presidency.<\/p>\n
While this writer once considered that a disastrous prospect
\nbecause of Megawati's weakness as a reformer and lack of
\nmanagement skills, against the current benchmark, a Megawati
\npresidency now seems less risky.<\/p>\n
Vice President Megawati may not be yet a committed reformer;
\nbut neither is President Abdurrahman, or Gus Dur. She may not be
\na dynamic manager, but neither has the President become this.<\/p>\n
While Megawati's pliability seemed a handicap when she
\nsurrounded herself with an entourage that seemed heavily weighted
\nwith thugs, since the election, persons of exceptional integrity
\nand competence from both within and outside the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) seem to have more
\nof her attention.<\/p>\n
No cronyism is ideal, but if Megawati's cronies are a higher
\ncaliber of professionals than those of the President, then \"point
\nto Megawati\". One of President Gus Dur's strong points, or so it
\nwas thought, were to be his relations with the military and will
\nto subordinate the generals.<\/p>\n
It has become clear that the President's political will in
\nthis regard has proven weaker than expected. International donors
\ndo not like too much change but they would prefer rational change
\nto anarchy.<\/p>\n
Affirmatively, a Megawati presidency could bring some
\nadvantages. A president who travels through the archipelago
\ninstead of overseas could provide a badly needed boost to
\nnational morale.<\/p>\n
Megawati might have learned something about presidential
\nleadership in her months in the wings; we cannot be sure. What
\nobservers do see is the President's stubborn resistance to
\nlearning from his mistakes, even after his near-fatal collision
\nwith the MPR in August.<\/p>\n
A longer litany of comparisons between a Gus Dur presidency
\nand a Megawati presidency is unnecessary; the point is obvious.
\nMany of last year's reasons for preferring President Abdurrahman
\nto candidate Megawati have receded, in view of the President's
\nperformance.<\/p>\n
In view of the President's continuing failure to learn from
\nhis mistakes, his recent statements that the country had no
\nalternative to his presidency, may have less validity than was
\nbelieved just two months ago.<\/p>\n
A personnel change in the presidency looks more possible with
\neach retraction, unwarranted accusation or impetuous claim that
\nescapes the President's lips.<\/p>\n
Questioning Gus Dur's presidency is not meant to undermine it.
\nThe President still has enough support to shape a better future
\nfor Indonesia.<\/p>\n
He still has the power to ensure that Indonesia would be
\nbetter off under his presidency than with a change. His survival
\nis still the preferred outcome.<\/p>\n
But the President can no longer rely on the avuncular style of
\ngoverning that worked for him in previous organizations. He
\ncannot avoid difficult reforms by joking his way around them.
\nAnniversaries are times of remembrance, reflection and promises
\nfor the future.<\/p>\n
On his presidential anniversary, President Abdurrahman might
\nwant to spend some time considering how his compatriots are
\nanswering the question asked here.<\/p>\n
The writer, an attorney and former American diplomat at the
\nU.S. Consulate General in Medan, is president director of PT Far
\nHorizons management consultancy.<\/p>",
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