Govt forecasts power glut as demand drops<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The government's "optimistic" projection is for
\npower oversupply of at least 4,000 megawatts on the Java-Bali
\nnetwork in three years due to the economic crisis.<\/p>\n
Director General of Electricity and Energy Development, Endro
\nUtomo Notodisuryo said contributing factors to the power glut
\nwould be a probable decrease in demand combined with increase in
\nsupply as several new power plants begin operation.<\/p>\n
"The 4,000 MW oversupply is based on an optimistic prediction
\nthat the country's economy will recover in three years. If the
\neconomic crisis continues longer, the oversupply could be
\nbigger," Endro told The Jakarta Post.<\/p>\n
According to the favorable calculation for economic
\nperformance, he said, the national economy would grow by 2
\npercent next year, following projected zero growth this year, and
\nwould continue to grow by 4 percent in 2000, and 7 percent in
\n2001.<\/p>\n
The crisis, which has already led to the closure of many
\nfactories, is expected to slash growth in power demand to between
\n1 percent and 2 percent this year from an average 13 percent in
\nrecent years, Endro said.<\/p>\n
"Power demand growth will be back to the level of 13 percent
\nby 2001 if the country's economy fully recovers by that year," he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
No data is available on current power demand on the Java-Bali
\nnetwork. But State Electricity Company (PLN) data shows that peak
\nload -- or the maximum power demand -- reached 9,600 MW up until
\nthe middle of last year, when the crisis was at its outset.<\/p>\n
Endro declined to give estimated supply figures by 2001, but
\nPLN data projected its power generation capacity on the Java-Bali
\ngrid would increase to above 16,000 MW by 2001, from 12,400 MW as
\nof mid-1997.<\/p>\n
PLN's 1,200 MW sixth and seventh units of the Suralaya power
\nplant, the 342 MW Grati gas turbine power plant, the 372 MW
\nTambak Lorok power plant and several other new plants will supply
\nan additional 3,600 MW.<\/p>\n
PLN project private power plants would supply an additional
\n4,250 MW by 2001 on the Java-Bali grid, bringing the total power
\nsupply to above 20,000 MW that year.<\/p>\n
Only one private power plant -- the 165-MW Salak geothermal
\npower plant, owned by a consortium led by Unocal Corp. of the
\nUnited States -- is currently part of the grid.<\/p>\n
Five other private power plants are scheduled to come on
\nstream within the next three years.<\/p>\n
These include the 1230-MW coal-fired Paiton I, the 1,320 MW
\ncoal-fired Tanjung Jati B, the 1,220-MW Paiton II, the 400-MW
\nDieng geothermal and the 220-MW Wayang Windu geothermal.<\/p>\n
Endro said power oversupply would impose bigger financial
\nburden on PLN, already facing financial problems due to the
\nrupiah's sharp depreciation against the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n
He said under the "take-or-pay" agreement with independent
\npower producers, PLN had to buy 80 percent of the private power
\nplants' supply regardless of the demand.<\/p>\n
"Anyway, if the country's economy really starts to recover in
\nthree years, we expect a balance in power supply and demand by
\n2003," Endro said.<\/p>\n
"This will reduce PLN's financial burden anyway." (jsk)<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/govt-forecasts-power-glut-as-demand-drops-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }