The Executive Director of the ReforMiner Institute, Komaidi\nNotonegoro, has urged the government to exercise caution in setting fuel\n(BBM) price policies amid uncertain global dynamics. He assessed that\nholding prices steady requires careful calculation to avoid disrupting\nnational energy resilience.<\/p>\n
He noted that amid the surge in global crude oil prices, maintaining\nstable BBM prices is indeed important to support public purchasing\npower. However, this approach carries consequences for the\nsustainability of energy supplies if not balanced with financing\nreadiness and procurement.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is not a subsidy issue, but a matter of procurement\nsustainability that needs to be anticipated. More concerning is\nPertamina\u2019s financial capacity for procurement in the coming days,\u201d\nKomaidi said during an energy discussion in Jakarta, quoted on Saturday\n(11\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n
He explained that the assumption of Indonesia Crude Price (ICP) in\nthe 2026 State Budget at US$70 per barrel is now trailing market prices\napproaching Brent. With the exchange rate remaining constant, the\neconomic price differential for BBM is estimated at Rp5,000 to Rp9,000\nper litre.<\/p>\n
With national consumption volume around 80 million kilolitres per\nyear and Pertamina\u2019s market share nearing 90 per cent, the additional\nfunding needed to cover this differential is substantial. Rough\ncalculations indicate an additional requirement of Rp1.5 trillion to Rp2\ntrillion per day, or about Rp60 trillion per month.<\/p>\n
\u201cHow long can they sustain this with existing cash flow? Moreover,\nthere are maturing bonds, requiring payments of principal and interest,\u201d\nKomaidi stated.<\/p>\n
He warned that Pertamina\u2019s dominance in national BBM distribution\nmeans supply disruptions risk directly affecting domestic energy\navailability. If the company cannot procure, national supplies could be\ndisrupted.<\/p>\n
According to him, the decision to hold prices can still be understood\nfrom an economic perspective. However, product availability remains the\nprimary factor that cannot be compromised.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the product is unavailable, imagine SPBU fuel stations running\nempty. This would cause national gridlock in both economic and social\ncontexts,\u201d Komaidi emphasised.<\/p>\n
He also stressed the importance of balancing populist policies with\neconomic rationality to avoid damaging the national energy order.<\/p>\n
\u201cPolicies may be populist, but they must be rational. If populist but\nirrational, that combination will destroy the order,\u201d Komaidi said.<\/p>\n
A member of the National Energy Council (DEN), Muhammad Kholid\nSyeirazi, assessed that current global pressures have placed the oil\nmarket in an abnormal condition. In such a situation, product\navailability becomes more important than mere financial capacity.<\/p>\n
\u201cMoreover, the current situation is a seller\u2019s market, so the market\nis dictated by sellers,\u201d Kholid said.<\/p>\n
He viewed Pertamina\u2019s position as increasingly pressured, having to\nface high global prices while being bound by the lower ICP assumption in\nthe State Budget.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat is the legal basis for providing BBM and crude at prices above\nICP? Therefore, this condition needs to be watched closely,\u201d Kholid\nstated.<\/p>\n
An economist from the University of Indonesia, Dipo Satria Ramli,\nassessed that oil price pressures also have the potential to shake\nfiscal stability. Simulations show that if oil prices reach US$105 per\nbarrel and the rupiah exchange rate is around Rp17,000, the State Budget\ndeficit could widen to 3.6 per cent.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe appreciate the government not raising subsidised BBM prices.\nHowever, economically, that burden shifts to Pertamina\u2019s balance sheet,\u201d\nDipo said.<\/p>\n
The Director of Oil and Gas Programme Development at the Ministry of\nEnergy and Mineral Resources, Hendra Gunawan, stated that the government\nis beginning to expand energy supply sources to anticipate global\ndistribution disruptions, including from areas outside the Strait of\nHormuz route. This effort is accompanied by optimising domestic\nproduction through redirecting part of the supply for domestic\nneeds.<\/p>\n
Diversifying imports and strengthening domestic supplies are key to\nmaintaining energy resilience amid global pressures. The government\nfaces the need to balance price stability with guarantees of national\nenergy availability.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/government-urged-to-exercise-caution-in-setting-fuel-prices-amid-global-dynamics-1775875849", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }