Good and bad news on reforms<\/p>\n
Former U.S. ambassador to Indonesia Paul Wolfowitz gives his
\nassessments of changes in Indonesia over the past year and of
\nfuture prospect. Now dean of the Paul Nitze School of Advanced
\nInternational Studies at John Hopkins University in Washington
\nD.C., Wolfowitz talks to The Jakarta Post correspondent Yenni
\nDjahidin. A related article appears on Page 5.<\/p>\n
Question: How do you assess events in Indonesia over the past
\nyear?<\/p>\n
Answer: It's very much the good news, bad news story, and it's
\nhard to tell which is dominant, which is more important. The bad
\nnews is the evidence of very disturbing social tensions. I don't
\nknow whether they are deep or not, but the manifestations are
\nreally quite horrible. To see Indonesians killing one another is
\nreally terrible. And I know there is a belief that some of this
\nmay be provoked by provocateurs, but provocateurs cannot succeed
\nunless people are able to be manipulated. So, that part and not
\nto mention the economic crisis, which, of course, is part of the
\nreasons why people are easily provoked.<\/p>\n
On the positive side, there seems to be a completely free
\npress, there is this profusion of political parties, almost too
\nmany, but it's much better too many than only one or essentially
\none. I think some of the best news in Indonesia is largely
\nunreported in the international press because they are things
\nthat don't happen. A year ago, when the students were ready to
\nmarch on Monas square, they and Amien Rais decided not to in
\norder to avoid bloodshed. If they had marched, you would have
\nweeks of news about Tiananmen in Jakarta. Since they didn't
\nmarch, there's really no story, even about what, I think,
\nremarkable leadership Amien Rais exercised at that time.<\/p>\n
Similarly, since the Army didn't shoot students, there wasn't
\na story about what the Army did, or rather what they didn't do. I
\nthink, the armed forces deserves a lot of credit for the
\nrestraint. The fact that you have these very large political
\nmovements like PDI Perjuangan (Indonesian Democratic Party of
\nStruggle), PAN (National Mandate Party) and PKB (National
\nAwakening Party), any one of which could have tens of thousands
\nof people demonstrating every day but they are not. These are the
\nkind of restraints that don't get reported very well.<\/p>\n
The economic problems have seen some progress, but it's very
\nmodest and it's going to continue modest until you have a
\ngovernment that can deal decisively with a lot of issues that
\nhangover from the past.<\/p>\n
Q: Could things have been better?<\/p>\n
A: It's hard to judge. Considering the economic crisis, the riots
\nthat preceded Soeharto stepping down, you had to have a period of
\ntransition in which some things could be achieved, but miracles
\ncould not have been achieved overnight by anybody. The question
\nis less whether more could have been achieved in the last 12
\nmonths than whether the last 12 months have been used as well as
\nthey might have been used to lay a foundation for this whole
\nelection process and what's coming afterward. And, I think, the
\nresults are sort of mixed.<\/p>\n
I think a great deal has been achieved. I'm impressed by the
\namount of thought that has gone into preparing the new election
\nlaw, and just the process of getting ballots out to 27 provinces,
\nand how many... 250,000 polling places. That's a massive task.<\/p>\n
And, the society and the government have had an enormous
\namount to deal with in last 12 months. But, it's not going to be
\nenough just to have a free and fair counting of the ballots on
\nJune 7. What's important is that from the process emerges a
\ngovernment that has a real credibility. And I'm not sure you have
\na process that is designed to do that. It looks a little too much
\nto me like the Italian or the Israeli system which has a
\nprofusion of parties producing governments that typically don't
\nhave any clear mandate. So, that's the challenge.<\/p>\n
Q: Where is Indonesia is heading with the elections?<\/p>\n
A: I hope Indonesia is heading to become the third-largest
\ndemocracy in the world. I hope that it's heading toward a society
\nthat heals its divisions, instead of exacerbating its divisions.
\nIf it does those two things, then it will emerge from its
\neconomic crisis and perhaps emerge -- although there's a lot of
\nwork to be done, just the magnitude of the bank problems are
\nstaggering -- from this with a stronger economic foundation than
\nwhen it begun.<\/p>\n
There were real achievements when it began. I don't think it's
\nfair to dismiss everything that happened in the last 30 years as
\nof no account. I think there has been real economic progress in
\nthe country. Part of the problem was the institutions and the
\npolitical system didn't progress with the economy. So, that's my
\nhope. There remain question marks whether that will be achieved
\nand there is the possibility these divisions are getting worse
\nand problems like East Timor and Aceh proliferating around the
\ncountry.<\/p>\n
Q: Your prediction for the elections?<\/p>\n
A: It's very hard to predict. It's such a confusing process.
\nIt could easily go wrong even though everybody is trying to make
\nit go well. With 48 parties on the ballot, you have a very
\nindirect road from the June 7 elections to the MPR (People's
\nConsultative Assembly) finally selecting a president. So, it
\nwould be difficult in a very mature democracy to make your
\nelection system work well. We're talking about a country that
\nhasn't had a real election for more than 40 years.<\/p>\n
I think everybody is trying very hard. I'm impressed at how
\nhard people are trying. And I hope they will succeed. But if you
\nask my prediction, I'd still have to say it could go wrong, there
\nis a lot of ways it can go wrong. So, we have an expression in
\nEnglish, \"knock, knock on wood.\" I'm hoping it would go well.<\/p>",
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