Golkar, PPP, PDI face tough battle<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Next year's general election will be anything
\nbut plain sailing for the three existing political organizations:
\nGolkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party (PDI), according to political analysts.<\/p>\n
National Institute of Sciences (LIPI) researcher Indria Samego
\nand political lecturer at the Surabaya-based Airlangga University
\nRamlan Surbakti both agree that it will not be easy for the three
\npolitical organizations to maintain the support won in the 1997
\nelection.<\/p>\n
\"The only existing political organization that will survive
\nthe 1999 general election is Golkar,\" Indria told The Jakarta
\nPost.<\/p>\n
He said that with all its infrastructure, human resources and
\nstrong financial foundations that it has, Golkar could still
\nsecure 30 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives
\n(DPR).<\/p>\n
\"It is impossible for Golkar to retain its supremacy of the
\n1997 general election when it secured 74.27 percent of the House
\nseats.\"<\/p>\n
\"Golkar will lose some of its voters in the Nahdlatul Ulama
\n(NU) Moslems organization, who will surely vote for the newly
\nestablished NU party, the National Awakening Party (PKB),\" he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
Indria, who chairs the LIPI-sponsored team conducting
\nalternative research on the revision of political laws, including
\nlegislation on political parties and the electoral system, said
\nGolkar could, however, still win the support of its traditional
\nvoters in villages, \"who are not sensitive enough to understand
\nall its sins\".<\/p>\n
He did not specify the sins, but urban dwellers may be aware
\nof vote-trading before the election and manipulation of the
\nballot counting.<\/p>\n
Indria, also a researcher at the Center for Information and
\nDevelopment Studies, said PPP and the government-backed PDI under
\nthe leadership of Soerjadi may have difficulty securing 10
\npercent of the elected House seats, currently the minimum
\nrequired to function effectively.<\/p>\n
\"PPP's traditional constituents will return to their reborn
\npolitical parties,\" Indria said.<\/p>\n
\"Those NU elements in PPP will vote for PKB, while the
\ntraditional Masjumi party supporters will vote for either the
\nnewly established Moon and Star Party (Partai Bulan Bintang) or
\nthe People's Mandate Party (PAB), whose establishment will be
\nannounced by its popular figure Amien Rais on Aug. 17,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Speaking about the outlook for the government-backed PDI under
\nSoerjadi, he predicted that it would do worse that in the 1997
\nelection. PDI only secured 3.04 percent of the House seats.<\/p>\n
Indria suggested that Soerjadi consolidate with ousted PDI
\nleader Megawati Soekarnoputri to ensure PDI wins a significant
\nnumber of seats in the next election.<\/p>\n
\"Yet, the Soerjadi-Megawati coalition, should it be
\nestablished, will only be able to secure 20 percent of the seats
\nin the House,\" he said. Ramlan said the next election would be
\ntough for all the contestants.<\/p>\n
\"None of the political contestants will dominate the 1999
\ngeneral election as each has their own strong constituencies,\"
\nRamlan told the Post. \"Golkar can still survive the election,
\nbut will be unable to maintain its domination,\" he said.<\/p>\n
He said Golkar would not enjoy financial assistance from the
\ngovernment and other sources anymore because there would be
\nrestrictions on the amount of money that a political party can
\nreceive.<\/p>\n
He also said that with the implementation of the district
\nsystem, Golkar would find it difficult to win the people's
\nsympathy as it will be completely determined by the grassroots
\npopularity of its party figures.<\/p>\n
\"It's not the party, but the figures who will make the big
\ngains,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Ramlan, a member of similar team established by the Ministry
\nof Home Affairs to produce a revision of the three political
\nlaws, said the PPP would find it difficult to survive the
\nelection as threats of disintegration have emerged.<\/p>\n
He agreed that its NU elements would likely join the PKB, and
\nthe elements of the defunct Masjumi party will join the Moon and
\nStar Party (Partai Bulan Bintang).<\/p>\n
The PDI leadership under the government-backed chairman
\nSoerjadi, he said, would be unable to meet the minimum
\nrequirement that will be stipulated in the new law on political
\nparties, the draft of which is to be discussed by the House this
\nmonth. He said the new law would require political parties to
\nhave chapters in at least in 14 provinces and branch offices in
\n154 regencies and mayoralties.<\/p>\n
The new law will also require political parties to attract 1
\npercent of eligible voters, or about one million people, before
\nthey can qualify for seats. \"I don't think that Soerjadi can meet
\nthe criteria,\" Ramlan said.<\/p>\n
He, however, said that the rival PDI leadership under Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri could have an important share and enter the
\nlegislative body if she goes it alone or forms a coalition with
\nSoerjadi. He predicted that the PKB and the Partai Bulan Bintang
\ncould also win big in next year's election. (imn)<\/p>",
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