Golkar on the road to regaining power<\/p>\n
Frans Sudiarsis, Research and Development Unit, The Jakarta Post
\nJakarta<\/p>\n
One of the leaders of the reform movement to topple Soeharto in
\n1998, Amien Rais was once very confident that we could bid good
\nriddance to Golkar, Soeharto's political vehicle during his 32-
\nyear rule, in the 1999 party election.<\/p>\n
However, Golkar was able to retain its power as the second
\nstrongest party with over 23.7 million votes, or 22.42 percent,
\nmuch more than Amien's National Mandate Party (PAN), which
\ngarnered about 7.5 million votes, or 7.11 percent.<\/p>\n
Now, a few months ahead of the 2004 elections, the once
\nresented party, a legacy of Soeharto, seems to have regained
\nfavor among the public.<\/p>\n
Like it or not, similar results were indicated in surveys
\nconducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI), Center
\nfor the Study of Democracy and Development (CESDA) -- a division
\nunder the Institute of Research, Education and Information of
\nSocial and Economic Affairs (LP3ES) -- the Danareksa Research
\nInstitute (DRI), the International Foundation for Election
\nSystems (IFES), the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), the
\nresearch and development unit of the Indonesian Democratic Party
\nof Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and The Asia Foundation.<\/p>\n
These surveys all placed Golkar first and PDI Perjuangan
\nsecond, indicating that people who had abandoned Golkar in the
\n1999 election may be returning to support the party.<\/p>\n
Several explanations can be provided for this trend. First, as
\nLSI's September 2003 survey shows, people are disillusioned with
\nthe snail-paced reform programs that have been under way for five
\nyears, and perceive that at least they could cope under the
\npredictable days a la the New Order.<\/p>\n
Although a number of macroeconomic indicators may have
\nimproved recently, this has not translated into an improvement in
\nbasic needs, living standard and employment -- which are
\nperceived as disparate from conditions in the New Order era.<\/p>\n
The strengthening of Golkar also has something to do with its
\nrelatively central position in the country's ideological
\nspectrum. Golkar is a pragmatic political entity that is
\nnationalist in its general outlook, but to some extent
\naccommodates the interests of Islamic and other religious groups
\nat the local level.<\/p>\n
Thus, Golkar is well-placed to welcome those Muslim voters
\ndissatisfied with the performance of Islamic parties and
\nnationalist parties, such as PDI Perjuangan. The continued
\ndominance of the Association of Islamic Students (HMI), which was
\nformerly led by Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung, makes it easier
\nfor Golkar to reestablish its bases in Muslim-oriented regions.<\/p>\n
This may explain Golkar's 1999 victory in South Sulawesi, West
\nSumatra and West Nusa Tenggara.<\/p>\n
The party's third key strength is its sound organization and
\nnetwork. Compared to other parties, internal conflicts are
\nconsiderably well-managed and cadres rarely leave due to internal
\nspats.<\/p>\n
Local leadership is a fourth factor. Its local executive board
\nmembers are community figures well known for their administrative
\ncompetence -- a number of governors in eastern Indonesia are
\nGolkar cadres.<\/p>\n
Aside from these four advantages, Golkar is also taking other
\nsteps to win sympathy from potential constituents other than its
\nnearly 11 million-strong membership, for example, by holding a
\nparty convention as a democratic mechanism to select its
\npresidential candidate. Regardless of the criticism this move
\nprompted, Golkar attracted public attention -- free advertisement
\nof its political stance that gave it a head start in
\n"campaigning".<\/p>\n
Golkar also has its weaknesses. Like other political parties,
\nit still lacks clear programs on how to bring the country out of
\ncrisis, limiting its appeal to rational voters -- or those
\noutside loyal circles and beyond those who would, say, simply
\nfollow their religious teachers' preferences.<\/p>\n
Golkar might therefore be more likely to attract rural voters
\nwho simply rate past performance without any serious interest in
\nscrutinizing future prospects and programs.<\/p>\n
The party's national leadership is also weak. Akbar, with his
\ndeft political skills, cannot be matched by Amien and PDI
\nPerjuangan chairman and incumbent President Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri. However, his conviction for his involvement in the
\nState Logistics Agency (Bulog) corruption case is a liability, as
\nit reminds people of all that was bad under the New Order, in
\ndirect association with the party.<\/p>\n
The public also viewed the party's courting of prominent and
\nrespected Muslim intellectual Nurcholish Madjid as an effort to
\nneutralize such a negative image, and Nurcholish's withdrawal
\nfrom the party's presidential convention only fostered it.<\/p>\n
Golkar chairman Akbar has said he "does not underestimate" any
\nparty. Could there be any serious threat from one of Golkar's
\nsplinter parties, which is courting the eldest daughter of
\nSoeharto, Siti Hardijanti Rukmana?<\/p>\n
Siti has been popular as a charitable businesswoman, and was
\nbriefly a minister for social affairs. The party nominating her
\nas presidential candidate is the Concern for the Nation
\nFunctional Party (PKPB), led by former army chief R. Hartono,
\nalso a former Golkar executive.<\/p>\n
However, a new party needs bold marketing tactics to establish
\na solid brand image in the short time remaining.<\/p>\n
With these strengths and weaknesses, a Golkar victory in the
\ncoming elections is not impossible. Idealists thus see a serious
\nchallenge for the reform movement, as they see that the "new"
\nGolkar still touts the same old players.<\/p>\n
But if Golkar is looking to count on returning voters who wish
\nfor the "good old days", as the abovementioned surveys indicate,
\nthen that is the price of our seemingly endless transition period
\ntoward a reform that still lingers, unseen, beyond the horizon.<\/p>\n
This is the second of a series of articles compiled by The
\nJakarta Post on the political parties contesting the 2004
\nelections.<\/p>",
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