Golkar expected to sweep elections<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The dominant Golkar faction, with the support of
\nthe civil service and armed forces, will sweep the May general
\nelection and gain more than two-thirds of the ballot, a political
\nscientist predicted yesterday.<\/p>\n
J. Kristiadi expressed his belief that there was nothing left
\non the political map to prevent an overwhelming majority for
\nGolkar.<\/p>\n
"Only with divine intervention can Golkar's support slump,"
\nthe head of the political science department at the Center for
\nStrategic and International Studies said at a press briefing on
\nthe political prospects for 1997.<\/p>\n
He predicted that Golkar will win at least 70 percent of the
\nvote.<\/p>\n
His prediction falls in line with Golkar's own target of 70.2
\npercent. At the last election in 1992, Golkar won 67.9 percent of
\nthe vote.<\/p>\n
Some 120 million people will be eligible to vote next year.<\/p>\n
The nation will go to the polls on May 29 to elect the House
\nof Representatives. This will be the seventh general election
\nsince Indonesia's independence in 1945, and the sixth under
\nPresident Soeharto.<\/p>\n
Kristiadi underlined several factors as the basis for his
\npredictions.<\/p>\n
The first was the weakness of the two other political parties
\n-- the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) and the United
\nDevelopment Party (PPP).<\/p>\n
The PDI is still embroiled in a leadership dispute between the
\ngovernment-backed Soerjadi and ousted leader Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri. Meanwhile the PPP's has been waning in recent
\nelections.<\/p>\n
The second reason is the strong support of the civil service.<\/p>\n
The Indonesian Civil Servants Corps, more than four-million
\nstrong, is directed to vote for Golkar.<\/p>\n
Another major factor contributing to a sweeping victory is the
\nArmed Forces' traditional support for the ruling faction.<\/p>\n
Kristiadi pointed out that unlike in recent elections, the
\nArmed Forces has been more blatant in its support for Golkar.<\/p>\n
"The kind of explicit and transparent support being given is,
\nin my opinion, only comparable to the 1971 election," he said
\nreferring to the first general election after the ascendancy of
\nthe New Order government under President Soeharto.<\/p>\n
"It's so vigorous that we hear words like ABRI (the Armed
\nForces) is a Golkar cadre," he said, alluding to the fact that
\nhigh ranking military officers often wear Golkar yellow at public
\nevents.<\/p>\n
While Kristiadi did not point to anyone in particular, Army
\nChief Gen. R. Hartono is one notable figure who has been publicly
\nexpressing support and donning a yellow jacket.<\/p>\n
Kristiadi believes all these factors indicate a strong
\npolitical will by the government to ensure a Golkar landslide.<\/p>\n
As a consequence, he said, political power will remain
\nextremely centralized at the very heart of the bureaucracy.<\/p>\n
Forecasting the political atmosphere of 1997, Kristiadi
\npointed to a probable tug between the forces advocating political
\nchange against those who wish to maintain the status quo, in this
\ncase, the government.<\/p>\n
"The government still appears hesitant to move (toward greater
\nchange) for the sake of stability," he remarked.<\/p>\n
Given the current structure of political power, Kristiadi
\nsaid: "any political change toward democratization seems to be
\nimpossible without the initiative of the bureaucratic elite."<\/p>\n
However he also pointed out that it would be a paradox to
\nexpect the bureaucracy to initiate change, since it is the nature
\nof power to seek even more power.<\/p>\n
He said change will come only when there is "political decay"
\nin the elite.<\/p>\n
"Hopefully societal forces who desire change in the direction
\nof democracy can seize the momentum to establish a political
\nsystem based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution," he said.<\/p>\n
Also attending yesterday's review of 1996 and outlook for 1997
\nwere economist Mari Pangestu along with members of the CSIS
\nsupervisory board and board of directors Jusuf Wanandi, Daoed
\nJusuf and Harry Tjan Silalahi. (mds)<\/p>",
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