Gold prices are expected to remain under pressure this week due to\nrising US interest rate expectations and the strengthening US dollar. A\nnumber of important data releases this week could also shake gold\nprices.<\/p>\n
However, buying activity in the US$4,200-US$4,300 per troy ounce\nrange suggests that selling pressure is beginning to subside. According\nto Refinitiv, gold prices at the close of last week\u2019s trading on Friday\n(25\/09\/2026) stood at US$4,286.25 per troy ounce, a slight increase of\n0.19%. Nevertheless, over the course of the week, gold prices fell by\n2.07%.<\/p>\n
As of Monday (28\/09\/2026) at 06:30 WIB, gold prices weakened by 0.51%\nto US$4,264.6 per troy ounce. The strengthening US dollar and the\n10-year US Treasury yield breaching 5% have acted as weights on gold\nprices. Market attention is now focused on US inflation and labour data,\nwhich will determine the direction of the Federal Reserve\u2019s next\npolicy.<\/p>\n
Gold prices surged towards US$4,700 at the end of August before\nsharply reversing and falling below US$4,300. Nonetheless, over the last\nthree weeks, selling pressure has not been able to drive prices deeper.\nThe US$4,200-US$4,300 zone is now serving as a critical support area for\nbuyers.<\/p>\n
The gold correction occurred after the Fed raised interest rates by\n25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September 2026, the first increase\nsince 2023. The Fed also signalled the possibility of further hikes this\nyear. High interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding\nnon-yielding gold, while a stronger dollar and rising bond yields also\nmake gold less attractive.<\/p>\n
Many important data points will shadow gold this week. The market\nwill closely examine the US August Personal Consumption Expenditures\n(PCE) price index, scheduled for release on Wednesday (30\/09\/2026). US\ninflation remains above the Fed\u2019s 2% target; August CPI inflation was\nrecorded at 3.4% annually, while core inflation reached 2.4%.<\/p>\n
If PCE inflation is higher than expected, expectations for further\nmonetary tightening could strengthen. This condition has the potential\nto boost the US dollar and bond yields, simultaneously weighing on gold.\nConversely, lower inflation could ease pressure on yields and open room\nfor a gold price recovery. The market will also scrutinise annual\nrevisions to US economic data released alongside the PCE report.<\/p>\n
The September non-farm payrolls report, scheduled for release on 2\nOctober, will be the next test. In August, the US economy created\n162,000 new jobs, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Average\nhourly wages rose by 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually.<\/p>\n
Strong labour data could reinforce expectations for further interest\nrate hikes. Conversely, a weakening labour market could reduce the\npressure on the Fed to continue tightening policy.<\/p>\n
Geopolitical uncertainty remains a pillar for gold demand as a\nsafe-haven asset. US-Iran tensions and the potential for new conflicts\ncould increase interest in gold, whereas diplomatic progress could\nreduce the geopolitical risk premium. Physical demand from China also\nhas the potential to support prices, though this may not be sufficient\nto trigger a major rally while global monetary conditions remain\ntight.<\/p>\n
Technically, gold\u2019s ability to hold the US$4,200-US$4,300 zone will\ndetermine its next direction. If prices can hold, the correction may\nlose momentum, and the long-term bullish trend could be maintained.\nHowever, if prices break convincingly below this zone, the risk of a\ndeeper decline will increase, especially if the US dollar and bond\nyields continue to strengthen.<\/p>\n
With US PCE inflation and employment data being released within a few\ndays, gold volatility is likely to increase. The next direction will\ndepend heavily on whether US economic data reinforces or dampens\nexpectations for Fed rate hikes. Bullion analysts believe this\ncombination of factors will test market sentiment, particularly during a\nshorter trading week due to holidays.<\/p>\n
While gold may consolidate at high levels until the end of 2026,\nprices are projected to strengthen again in the first half of 2027. In\nits research report, ICICI Bank estimates that gold prices could reach\nUS$4,600-US$5,000 per troy ounce in the first half of 2027. This\nprojection is supported by the potential easing of US real bond yields\nand a weakening US dollar, which have been weighing on gold.<\/p>\n
Similarly, silver prices have also weakened. According to Refinitiv,\nsilver prices at the close of last week\u2019s trading on Friday (25\/09\/2026)\nwere at US$64.21 per troy ounce, up 0.59%. However, over the week,\nsilver fell by 2.95%. As of Monday (28\/09\/2026) at 06:30 WIB, silver\nprices plummeted 0.74% to US$63.8 per troy ounce.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/gold-prices-enter-critical-week-prepare-for-volatility-1790556790", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }