The United Nations (UN) has stated that the world will exceed the\n1.5-degree Celsius global warming threshold in the coming years, meaning\nnations must now prepare themselves to face a period of warming that\nsurpasses this limit before attempting to reduce it again.<\/p>\n
The first report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), released\non Wednesday (2\/9), notes that while efforts to bring temperature rises\nback below 1.5 degrees Celsius are still possible, they remain highly\nuncertain. Such a move would require rapid emission reductions alongside\nefforts to remove accumulated carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.<\/p>\n
UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres stated that the world is moving\ntoo quickly towards more dangerous warming conditions. \u201cHumanity is\nracing past the limit to avoid climate catastrophe,\u201d said Guterres.<\/p>\n
The world prepares to cross the 1.5-degree\nthreshold<\/strong><\/p>\n The 1.5-degree Celsius limit above pre-industrial levels became a\nprimary target following the 2015 Paris Agreement. Governments agreed to\nstrive to keep global temperature rises within this limit to restrict\nthe impact of extreme weather.<\/p>\n According to the UNEP report, an \u2018overshoot\u2019 condition is now highly\nlikely. Consequently, attention is no longer solely directed at\npreventing temperatures from exceeding 1.5 degrees, but also at limiting\nhow high temperatures will rise and how long the Earth remains above\nthat threshold.<\/p>\n \u201cEvery year of delay and every fraction of a degree above 1.5\nincreases the risk and makes recovery more difficult, with the\npossibility of irreversible loss even if temperatures subsequently\nfall,\u201d UNEP stated in its report, according to Reuters.<\/p>\n Global temperatures have currently reached approximately 1.4 degrees\nCelsius above pre-industrial levels, according to calculations by\nseveral scientists. However, the measurement of this threshold uses a\n20-year average, rather than temperatures from a single specific\nyear.<\/p>\n The UNEP report estimates that in the most optimistic scenario, if\nall existing national commitments are implemented, global warming would\npeak at around 1.8 degrees Celsius by the middle of the century.\nHowever, based on current policies, warming is projected to reach\napproximately 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2100.<\/p>\n \u201cThe 1.5-degree target remains the goal. However, we now need to\nachieve it from above,\u201d said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.<\/p>\n Climate risks threaten the Himalayan region<\/strong><\/p>\n This change in strategy occurs as several regions face increasingly\ncomplex disasters. Floods on 26 August in Nepal and China killed more\nthan 1,000 people and left thousands more missing, including hundreds\nfeared trapped in a hydroelectric project tunnel.<\/p>\n According to the Associated Press (AP), the disaster was triggered by\nthe collapse of bedrock and glaciers, which sent massive amounts of\nmaterial and water into several Himalayan rivers.<\/p>\n Scientists say it is still too early to directly link the disaster to\nglobal warming. However, rising Earth temperatures increase the\nlikelihood of such disasters, particularly in the Himalayan region,\nwhich is warming much faster than many other areas.<\/p>\n \u201cClimate change has played a major role in the Hindu Kush Himalaya\nregion, causing various complex disasters that truly impact communities\nand investments in downstream areas,\u201d Saswata Sanyal, a disaster risk\nresilience expert from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain\nDevelopment in Kathmandu, told AP.<\/p>\n Sanyal noted that the region is increasingly facing a series of\nhazards that can trigger one another. Warmer temperatures melt mountain\nice and increase the risk of rockslides, avalanches, and floods.\nLandslides can dam rivers before triggering flash floods, while heavy\nrain can exacerbate the destruction.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople in Nepal are still recovering from last year\u2019s floods,\u201d said\nSanyal. \u201cBefore they could fully adapt, the next disaster arrived.\u201d<\/p>\n Amidst the floods, Pema Tamang and her fellow villagers fled to a\nBuddhist stupa that had been rebuilt following the 2015 earthquake.<\/p>\n \u201cWe were only able to rebuild the stupa last year after it was\ndestroyed by the earthquake,\u201d Tamang told AP. \u201cTaking shelter there was\nour way of saving our lives from the floods.\u201d<\/p>\n The world faces a long period of warming<\/strong><\/p>\n According to UNEP, the period during which temperatures remain above\n1.5 degrees Celsius could last for several decades. During this period,\nthe impacts of climate change will continue to intensify, including\nextreme weather, rising sea levels, species extinction, and the melting\nof ice and glaciers.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a reality check. We must live with a warmer world,\u201d said\nRichard Betts, a climate scientist from the University of Exeter and one\nof the authors of the UNEP report. \u201cHowever, there is still much we can\ndo to limit warming.\u201d<\/p>\n UNEP stated that countries need to increase adaptation efforts as\nsome impacts of climate change are unavoidable. The report describes\nthis stage as \u201ccoping and containment.\u201d<\/p>\n The report also warns of the possibility of tipping points with\nirreversible impacts that could trigger chain reactions, including the\nloss of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the destruction of\nthe Amazon rainforest, and the disruption of the Atlantic ocean\ncirculation system that helps keep Europe warm.<\/p>\n To lower temperatures after an overshoot period, the world needs to\nreduce fossil fuel use while simultaneously removing carbon dioxide from\nthe atmosphere. Afforestation is one method mentioned, but UNEP\nestimates that such methods could, at most, lower temperatures by about\none-tenth of a degree Celsius.<\/p>\n \u201cThe overshoot target requires us to stop the train quickly and then\nreverse it,\u201d said Rob Jackson, a climate scientist from Stanford\nUniversity.<\/p>",
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