Geopolitics behind Jiang's trip to SE Asia<\/p>\n
By Peter Harmsen<\/p>\n
BEIJING (AFP): When Chinese President Jiang Zemin embarks on a
\nweek-long trip to Laos, Cambodia and Brunei this week he will be
\ncarrying China's ambition to be a regional power, but will be
\nweighed down by history.<\/p>\n
It is the first time since the 1960s that a Chinese head of
\nstate has paid a visit to any of these countries, but analysts
\nsay Beijing's hope of gaining influence in Southeast Asia should
\nnot be underestimated.<\/p>\n
"China dreams of becoming some sort of uncontested elder
\nbrother in the region," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, director of
\nthe French Center for Research on Contemporary China in Hong
\nKong.<\/p>\n
What complicates this task is its past as the foremost
\nsupporter of the Khmer Rouge movement, whose genocidal regime in
\nCambodia in the late 1970s led to the deaths of an estimated 1.7
\nmillion people.<\/p>\n
Cambodian police Monday barred students from handing a
\npetition to China's embassy asking for an apology.<\/p>\n
Beijing has made clear it is not going to address the issue
\nduring Jiang's trip, let alone apologize for it.<\/p>\n
"This is an internal affair of Cambodia," said a foreign
\nministry spokeswoman. "This time the focus of the meeting between
\nPresident Jiang and all the leaders of the three countries will
\nbe on how to further strengthen cooperation."<\/p>\n
China's focus on Southeast Asia is the result of its location
\non the map, on top of a region that functions as a crossroads for
\ntrade.<\/p>\n
"No outside power has a larger stake (in Southeast Asia) than
\ndoes China," American professors Andrew Nathan and Robert Ross
\nwrote in The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress, a book about
\nChinese foreign policy.<\/p>\n
"Geography forces China to see the region much as America sees
\nLatin America or Russia sees Eastern Europe."<\/p>\n
Geo-politics is likely to make a major mark on Jiang's visits
\nto Laos, scheduled for Nov. 11 to 13, and Cambodia, set for Nov.
\n13 and 14.<\/p>\n
"One of the aims is to balance U.S. influence in a region
\nwhich remains dependent on outside support," said Cabestan.<\/p>\n
After the fall of communism ended decades of Soviet influence
\nin Southeast Asia, the United States has returned as the main
\noutside power and U.S. President Bill Clinton is due in Vietnam
\nfor an historic visit later this month.<\/p>\n
This adds to Chinese fears of U.S. encroachment, already
\nstrong because the United States is active at the opposite end of
\nEast Asia where it has just concluded its highest-level talks
\never with reclusive North Korea.<\/p>\n
But the race for influence in its immediate neighborhood is
\none China may never win, according to Cabestan.<\/p>\n
"The more powerful China becomes in East Asia, the more the
\ncountries there will try to keep close ties with United States,"
\nhe said.<\/p>\n
Alongside China's competition with the United States, it is
\ninvolved in a parallel game over influence with Vietnam,
\nhistorically an important local player in Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n
That could be why Vietnam on Tuesday announced its president
\nTran Duc Luong would visit Cambodia on Nov. 27, on the heels of
\nJiang's visit.<\/p>\n
China faces an uphill struggle, since the Cambodian
\nleadership's pro-Beijing lobby is characterized by observers as
\nsmall and insignificant.<\/p>\n
Its pro-Vietnam lobby is influential and led by Premier Hun
\nSen, a former militant communist who was installed as head of a
\nregime after Vietnam invaded Cambodia in 1979.<\/p>\n
This leaves China with little hope of a decisive change in its
\nfavor, and it may have only modest expectations.<\/p>\n
"China wants the Cambodian leadership to respect China's
\ninterests. It's not in China's interest to foster a pro-Chinese
\nfaction, because it would be counterproductive," said Joseph
\nCheng, a political scientist at City University of Hong Kong.<\/p>\n
"But it hopes to see Cambodia strike a good balance between
\nChina and Vietnam."<\/p>\n
Jiang will arrive in Brunei on Nov. 15 for an informal summit
\nof the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.<\/p>\n
The actual state visit to the sultanate does not begin until
\ntwo days later and will focus on business and economics.<\/p>\n
Besides meeting with the sultan, Jiang will brief local
\nbusinesspeople on the opportunities they can expect from China's
\n2001-2005 five-year plan, according to a Chinese foreign ministry
\nofficial.<\/p>",
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