GAM faces tough job to prove commitment<\/p>\n
Aleksius Jemadu, Singapore<\/p>\n
The signing of a peace agreement to end intra-state conflict
\nin some ways constitutes a dangerous political gamble. The
\nsignatories never know for sure whether future courses of events
\nwill turn out according to their expectations.<\/p>\n
It has been more than two months into the implementation of
\nthe peace agreement between the Indonesian government and the
\nFree Aceh Movement (GAM) and a lot of progress has been made. The
\ngranting of amnesty to GAM members and the withdrawal of non-
\nlocal military and police from Aceh are two examples where the
\nplan is being properly followed.<\/p>\n
Despite some small glitches, GAM's disarmament has also run
\nsmoothly. The most important achievement is the people of Aceh
\ncan enjoy a peace, and the longer this lasts the bigger the
\nchance that societies in Aceh can build up a mutual trust.<\/p>\n
However, the sustainability of peace will depend on the level
\nof satisfaction both sides have that their objectives have been
\nmet.<\/p>\n
GAM, for its part, has made big political sacrifices by
\nabandoning its claim for an independent state and disarming its
\nmilitary forces. The focus of its political struggle is now
\nfocused on self-government for Aceh.<\/p>\n
But there is a long way to go before that goal can be
\naccomplished. Transforming a military struggle into a political
\ncompetition in elections requires certain organizational and
\ncommunication skills.<\/p>\n
According to the peace agreement the people of Aceh -- GAM
\nmembers included -- have the right to nominate candidates for the
\nposition of elected officials such as governors, regents and
\nmayors in April 2006. The coming elections will be a test for GAM
\nas a political entity in order to see what level of support it
\nhas among the Acehnese voters.<\/p>\n
If its candidates do well in those elections and win in most
\nof the districts and mayoralties, then it will have a good
\nprospect for legislative elections in 2009. If GAM's candidates
\ndo poorly, then it will substantially reduce its credibility and
\nlegitimacy.<\/p>\n
Preparing a successful performance in an election normally
\ntakes time and requires a sufficient amount of financial
\nresources. On top of that, candidates should begin to approach
\nmass organizations, religious groups and civil society groups in
\norder to mobilize their support.<\/p>\n
Most of GAM leaders who will likely contest in the coming
\nlocal elections are still in Sweden. The Aceh Monitoring Mission
\nhas invited them to return to Aceh but many have not gone back
\nciting concerns for their personal security.<\/p>\n
The threat might not come from the military -- they are more
\nlikely concerned about the activities of the militias. Reports
\nhave already surfaced regarding incidents in which militia groups
\nhave taken revenge against former GAM members. Indonesian
\nsecurity forces and the AMM must guarantee their safety or the
\npeace deal will face a serious obstacle.<\/p>\n
When GAM shadow prime minister Malik Mahmud made an official
\nstatement following the signing of the peace agreement, he
\nmentioned \"militias\" 10 times in his text. This reflects a grave
\nconcern among GAM members about their role in Aceh. Malik also
\nmade a reference to the tragic events in East Timor after the
\nreferendum in 1999.<\/p>\n
The more GAM leaders delay their return to Aceh, the less time
\nfor them to prepare for the 2006 elections. The candidates from
\nthe existing political parties will certainly be more prepared
\nboth in terms of organizational structures and financial
\nresources.<\/p>\n
Another disadvantageous development for GAM is related to the
\ndiscourse on the draft of the bill of the governing of Aceh. It
\nis reported that three universities in Aceh University of Syiah
\nKuala, the State Institute of Islamic Studies Ar-Raniry and the
\nUniversity of Malikusaleh have proposed different drafts for the
\nbill in which the term \"province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam\" is
\nstill used. While at the same time a written proposal from GAM
\nuses the term \"region of Aceh\". While the first term reflects a
\ncommitment to the notion of the unitary state, the second term
\ndenotes to the concept of self-government.<\/p>\n
The political significance of these different discourses is
\nthat there is a diversity of opinions in Aceh regarding the law
\non the governing of Aceh which is so crucial for GAM's political
\nstruggle. To make things worse, 11 districts in Aceh aspire to
\nestablish two separate provinces. We may conclude that the
\ndiversity of political options in Aceh may falsify a theory that
\nthe Acehnese would have the same idea about the future form of
\ntheir governing modalities.<\/p>\n
The writer is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of
\nDefense and Strategic Studies (IDSS) Singapore. Ideas expressed
\nhere are his own. He can be reached at aljemadu@yahoo.co.uk<\/p>",
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