Future of ASEAN and East Asia<\/p>\n
Kavi Chongkittavorn, Asia News Network, Bangkok<\/p>\n
Future of East Asia, or for that matter, Asia, would be in the
\nhands of leaders from 10+3+1+2, represented by ASEAN,
\nChina-Japan-Korea, India and Australia and New Zealand, when they
\nmeet on Dec. 14 in Kuala Lumpur. Although the inaugural meeting
\nwould be very symbolic with fanfares, the future ramification is
\nstill unfathomable.<\/p>\n
Obviously with Malaysia as host of the East Asian Summit,
\nASEAN is moving forward to strengthen its identity, despite
\nuncertainties and divergences among member countries on the
\nfuture course of EAS.<\/p>\n
For the time being, the priority is now being placed on the
\nongoing ASEAN plus three (APT) process. Some ASEAN members have
\nexpressed concern that without further consolidation of their 10-
\nyear old cooperation, the newly emerged EAS might be overwhelmed
\nby the APT process. To disarray this fear, ASEAN and China, Japan
\nand Korea will sign a separate declaration among themselves
\nstressing the imperatives of their cooperation and community
\nbuilding.<\/p>\n
The grouping's staunch desire to construct the future rule-
\nbased community within East Asia among the APT has already caused
\nuneasiness with India, Australia and New Zealand. While they are
\nappreciative of being part of the EAS, they have not yet come to
\nterms as to why they are not part of the emerging East Asian
\ncommunity. When this concept was introduced in early 1990s, it
\nwas quickly turned down because it was viewed as anti-American
\ngrouping during the first year of President Bill Clinton
\nAdministration.<\/p>\n
Soon, the international community will find out if the future
\nof East Asia will stretch from Kashmir, India to Southland, New
\nZealand or simply limited to the APT. After almost two-year of
\ndiscussion, founding members of EAS have not yet agreed if their
\nsummit will serve as a springboard for the formation of an East
\nAsian Community (EAC). As the summit approaches, they have not
\nyet agreed on the nitty-gritty of the EAS modality.<\/p>\n
When an East Asian Community three was proposed years ago by
\nSouth Korea and subsequently Japan, it envisaged a much bigger
\ncommunity-building process that would link the region with the
\nbroader Asia-Pacific: The participation of Australia and New
\nZealand as well as India would complement this idea. But the idea
\nof East Asian cooperation that ASEAN worked on was based on the
\nAPT and its enlargement.<\/p>\n
In the beginning, hopes were high that ASEAN would be more
\naccommodating in allowing non-ASEAN EAS founders to do more and
\nin the process gradually transform the EAS into a region-wide
\nforum for community-building. However, that was a wishful
\nthinking.<\/p>\n
At the Kuala Lumpur summit, the APT leaders will again
\nreiterate that the much-heralded EAS should be just a strategic
\ndialogue forum for leaders to discuss important issues of common
\ninterest. It will be a forum with a loose structure and no fixed
\nagenda. In that sense, the EAS will have nothing to do directly
\nwith community-building in East Asia.<\/p>\n
Obviously, ASEAN views the community-building in East as an
\nAPT process with the ASEAN Community and ASEAN's bilateral
\ndialogue partners with China, Japan and Korea as well as
\nbilateral cooperation among the three as building blocks.<\/p>\n
They will not speak of establishing a secretariat, as Malaysia
\nhas suggested in the beginning. ASEAN will lead and chair all
\nfuture meetings, very much to the chagrin of Japan, which prefers
\nother non-ASEAN countries to co-chair meetings. In a nutshell,
\nASEAN will be calling the shots, as it always has done as in the
\nASEAN Regional Forum.<\/p>\n
ASEAN leaders see the EAS as an Asian-type G-8 meeting, which
\nwill take up specific themes or issues, including invitations of
\nspecific guests. For example in the past year China and India
\nwere invited to join in G-8 discussions.<\/p>\n
The Declaration on the ASEAN Plus Three Summit that will be
\nsigned by their leaders will ensure that the process that began
\nin 1992 continues. Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia have been
\ndemanding that the APT be the main driving force and not be
\ndiluted in any way by the new forum.<\/p>\n
A series of summit meeting that also including Russia will
\ntake place along with the announcement of establishment of an
\neminent persons group to prepare the drafting of an ASEAN
\nCharter. The EPG group will study future scenarios for ASEAN
\nbeyond the current action plan for 2020. Whatever the group
\nagrees to will be reflected in the charter.<\/p>\n
Prominent ASEAN personalities such as former Filipino
\nPresident Fidel Ramos, former Malaysian deputy prime minister
\nMusa Hitam, former Singaporean foreign minister S Jayakumar,
\nformer Indonesian foreign minister Ali Alatas and former Thai
\nforeign minister Kasem Samosornkasemri have already agreed to
\njoin the group. They expect to finish the draft charter within a
\nyear. To help them, the Jakarta-based ASEAN Secretariat has a
\nfinished draft which
\nencompasses important elements found in all ASEAN documents and
\naction plans.<\/p>\n
In recent years ASEAN states have realized that they have to
\nwork closer together to tackle common problems, especially
\nserious cross-border issues such as terrorism, haze and
\npollutions, people-trafficking and drug-smuggling, and contagious
\ndiseases such as bird flu and Sars. The law-binding charter will
\nfacilitate cooperation on such issues. For instance, if need be,
\nin the case of anti-terrorism cooperation, there could be a
\nspeedy extradition of persons involved in terrorist acts.<\/p>\n
Through increased cooperation, some of the key ASEAN members,
\nsuch as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore, hope
\nthat the member countries will talk less about the non-
\ninterference principle and opt for practical approaches. The
\ndiscreet but sustained pressure from the ASEAN MPs Caucus on
\nBurma was cited as a good example.<\/p>\n
As host of the EAS, Malaysia wants to leave a legacy that it
\nhas made ASEAN more engaging with the rest of the world and that
\nEAS should be a non-exclusive entity. Not long ago Prime Minister
\nAbdullah Badawi said he wished to see ASEAN be more open and down
\nto earth. He is now working to make sure that this happens.<\/p>\n
At the summit, Malaysia leader will lead a scheduled a 15-
\nminute meeting between the representatives from ASEAN civil-
\nsociety organizations and his ASEAN colleagues. It will be the
\nfirst such major encounter, underscoring the host's desire to
\nmake ASEAN less elitist.<\/p>\n
There are at least 50 non-government organizations registered
\nas ASEAN nongovernmental organizations. But only a few, such as
\nASEAN-ISIS and the ASEAN University Network, are recognized and
\nenjoy regular contacts with ASEAN senior officials.<\/p>",
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