First quarter GDP numbers mark uneven Asian expansion<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones): Fresh growth figures released by Asian
\ncountries for the first quarter highlight the uneven nature of
\nthe region's economic expansion.<\/p>\n
At the head of the class are South Korea and Taiwan, which
\nhave capitalized on their technology-rich markets to post
\nimpressive increases in gross domestic product. Close behind are
\nSingapore and Hong Kong.<\/p>\n
Lagging in the field are Indonesia and the Philippines,
\nsaddled with an Old Economy image, civil unrest and doubts about
\nthe pace of political and economic reform.<\/p>\n
"It's clear that it's very much a two-tier recovery," said
\nFriedrich Wu, chief economist at DBS Bank in Singapore.<\/p>\n
The Asian Development Bank confirmed as much in a recent
\nreport that estimated that the four top-tier, or newly
\nindustrialized countries, would post average economic growth of
\n6.5 percent this year. The ADB's forecast for the remaining Asian
\ncountries, excluding Japan, was for average GDP growth of 4.6
\npercent in 2000.<\/p>\n
South Korea helped solidify that scenario earlier this week
\nwhen the government reported GDP expanded 12.8 percent in the
\nfirst quarter, compared with a year earlier.<\/p>\n
Taiwan last week weighed in with a 7.9 percent year-on-year
\nrise in first quarter GDP.<\/p>\n
While the growth rates are expected to moderate somewhat, the
\nADB is still forecasting solid gains this year for both
\ncountries, with a target of 7.5 percent for South Korea and 6.3
\npercent for Taiwan.<\/p>\n
For Indonesia and the Philippines, the ADB is forecasting GDP
\nto expand by 4.0 percent and 3.8 percent respectively this year,
\nwhich some analysts say is overly optimistic given the erosion of
\nthe countries' stock prices and currency values since last
\nmonth's ADB report.<\/p>\n
Private forecasters are looking for 3.5 percent first-quarter
\ngrowth in the Philippines when the government releases GDP data
\nnext week.<\/p>\n
Indonesia last week reported disappointing 3.2 percent
\nyear-on-year economic growth in the first quarter, lower than the
\ngovernment's prediction of 4 percent to 6 percent.<\/p>\n
Analysts said President Abdurrahman Wahid was hoping for GDP
\ngrowth at the higher end of the range to help restore investor
\nconfidence in Indonesia.<\/p>\n
The rupiah has fallen about 10 percent in value against the
\nU.S. dollar in recent weeks due to social and political tensions
\nand stagnated banking reforms, which have threatened to unravel
\nIndonesia's effort at economic restructuring, Wu said.<\/p>\n
While Wahid is calling for GDP growth of at least 5 percent in
\n2000, the chairman of the country's Central Statistics Bureau has
\nrevised his forecast down to 1.5 percent.<\/p>\n
"It shows the government totally lacks coordination on the
\neconomic front," said Syetarn Hansakul, economist at WestLB Bank
\nin Singapore.<\/p>\n
Also of concern is the composition of growth in Indonesia and
\nother Southeast Asian nations, analysts said. Many countries are
\nrelying too heavily on exports to the U.S. and other trading
\npartners for growth, and not enough on domestic consumption,
\nanalysts said.<\/p>\n
That could pose a problem for some countries if the U.S.
\neconomy slows down and its appetite for Asian imports wanes,
\nHansakul said.<\/p>\n
Thailand, provided a good illustration of that, with its 5.0
\npercent expansion of first-quarter GDP being driven primarily by
\na 30.4 percent surge in exports. The ADB is forecasting 4.5
\npercent growth for Thailand this year.<\/p>\n
While exports also were a major factor in South Korea's first-
\nquarter GDP, the country saw big increases in capital investment
\nand private consumption.<\/p>\n
Singapore registered stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP
\nof 9.1 percent compared with a year earlier, the government
\nreported earlier this week.<\/p>\n
That prompted officials at the Ministry of Trade and Industry
\nto boost their 2000 growth forecast range to 7.5-7.5 percent from
\n4.5-6.5 percent.<\/p>\n
Malaysia, which has been distinguishing itself from the
\nlagging Southeast Asian economies, reported Wednesday that its
\nGDP expanded by a greater-than-expected 11.7 percent in the first
\nquarter over the same period last year.<\/p>\n
Forecasters predict Hong Hong's economy grew by 11.0 percent
\nin the first quarter year-on-year, analysts said. The government
\nis due to release the figures on Friday.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/first-quarter-gdp-numbers-mark-uneven-asian-expansion-1447893297",
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