Fate of reform 'must override' Gus Dur's presidency<\/p>\n
What choice is left after the issuing of a memorandum by the
\nHouse of Representatives (DPR), effectively a first warning to
\nPresident Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid to give him chance to
\nimprove his performance in three month's time? Political observer
\nJ. Soedjati Djiwandono thinks the choice is crystal clear.<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Gus Dur will either carry on as president to the
\nend of his term but with greater possibility of impeachment --
\nwhich would not only mean a fall from grace for him, but more
\nimportantly, almost certain social conflicts -- or gracefully
\nresign. His days as president have begun to be numbered.<\/p>\n
So far, however, Gus Dur does not seem to realize the
\nmagnitude of the emerging crisis. In response to the House
\nmemorandum, he has publicly stated that he will not resign. On
\nthe contrary, he seems determined to strike back with a
\nvengeance. He considered the possibility of dissolving the DPR.
\nPerhaps he was thinking of the late president Sukarno's decree of
\n1959 as a precedent, although its legal and constitutional basis
\nwas doubtful.<\/p>\n
The question of legal and constitutional basis aside, however,
\nSukarno enjoyed the full backing of the armed forces. This time,
\nby contrast, Gus Dur did not get the support of the military,
\nparticularly the Army, for such a course of action. Ironically,
\nignoring political ethics, it was the Army chief of staff himself
\nthat revealed publicly that the President had suggested such a
\ndictatorial act, and that the Army chief had advised against it.<\/p>\n
It was a moment of truth that Gus Dur should have realized. He
\nhas lost the support of all political parties, except the
\nNational Awakening Party (PKB), which only has 50 seats in the
\nHouse. The small Love the Nation Democratic Party (PDKB) had
\ndefended Gus Dur against the findings of the House's special
\ncommittee investigating the scandals, but in the end it approved
\nthe memorandum. Thus, Gus Dur's presidency has lost its
\ncredibility, but above all its legitimacy.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, public support has obviously declined almost
\nto zero. Students and youth demonstrations were mounting,
\ndemanding the President's resignation. This alone would increase
\nthe threat of violent social conflicts.<\/p>\n
To be sure, in theory, Gus Dur still has an opportunity to
\nimprove his performance and that of his Cabinet. He still has an
\nopportunity to carry on the reform process, as he himself has
\nsaid he is determined to do without mercy.<\/p>\n
Indeed, it was this writer's thesis in a previous contribution
\nto this column that Gus Dur should be allowed to carry on as
\npresident to the end of his term so as to avoid social conflicts
\nor even a civil war. It would have been a choice of the lesser
\nevil.<\/p>\n
Now, however, it is likely that Gus Dur will either be toppled
\nby impeachment or remain in power, and it is clear that short of
\nhis resignation -- which remains unlikely given his well-known
\nstubbornness and increasing overconfidence to the point of
\narrogance -- social conflicts are likely to ensue.<\/p>\n
In fact, opposition against him has been accumulating almost
\nfrom the very start of his presidency. The Brunei and Bulog
\nscandals would wane in significance against some other issues of
\ncorruption, collusion and nepotism (KKN), especially those
\nperpetrated by cronies of the New Order.<\/p>\n
Yet, in the current climate of reform, they loom large,
\nparticularly because they involve the most democratically elected
\npresident of this country, known to be a consistent moral leader
\ncommitted to reform.<\/p>\n
It is small wonder, therefore, that despite certain anomalies,
\nflaws, lack of ethics and the possibility of abuse of democratic
\nmechanism in the proceedings of the committee and the House as a
\nwhole, they have been effectively used as Gus Dur's Achilles'
\nheel in their efforts to corner and ultimately, if successful, to
\nunseat him. Without the slightest intention at justification,
\nthat forms part of the unfairness and cruelty of realpolitik.<\/p>\n
Thus, should Gus Dur try to carry on as president, in one way
\nor another, the majority of the House members would try to be in
\nthe way. While ironically still maintaining their ministers in
\nthe Cabinet, they have withdrawn their support for him. And
\nsurely, he cannot possibly carry on reform without the support
\nand participation of the House and the people at large.<\/p>\n
The ball is now in the President's court. Again, the best
\nalternative would be for Gus Dur to resign at his own will. This
\nwould be the most honorable step that would set a good example
\nand perhaps start a good tradition. It would be in the best
\ninterest of national unity.<\/p>\n
Likewise, with Gus Dur remaining in power to the end of his
\nterm, there is no guarantee for continued reform. His commitment
\nto reform seems questionable now in the light of his response to
\nthe House memorandum, not unlike the behavior of a wounded bull.<\/p>\n
In addition to his consideration of dissolving the House, he
\nhas also challenged the House with the claim that he still enjoys
\nthe support of the people, although it is not clear how he made
\nthis judgment. He has also challenged that the mandate of the
\npeople does not necessarily come through the mechanism of the
\nlegislature. In so bluffing, he has indicated his little respect
\nfor democratic process, mechanism and institutions.<\/p>\n
Given Gus Dur's well-known reluctance to listen, it would be
\nthe responsibility of his staunch supporters, particularly
\nleaders of the PKB, the Nahdlatul Ulama and its affiliated
\norganizations -- which are in a much better position than any
\nother -- to convince him of the real significance and gravity of
\nthe present crisis, and what the implications would be for
\nreform, and thus for the future of the nation. At stake is not
\nonly Gus Dur's presidency, but more importantly the fate of
\nreform, and thus the future of the nation.<\/p>",
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