Explaining Democratic's Party's popularity<\/p>\n
Muhammad Qodari
\nDirector of Research
\nIndonesian Survey Institute
\n(LSI)
\nJakarta
\nqodari@lsi.or.id<\/p>\n
The Democratic Party (PD), which was founded only on Sept. 9,
\n2001, came out as one of the best performers in the April 5
\nlegislative election.<\/p>\n
A nationwide survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey
\nInstitute (LSI) last November showed that the prospect of votes
\nfor the PD was quite tiny -- less than 1 percent. The latest
\nsurvey by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems
\n(IFES) just before the campaigning period in March predicted only
\n1.6 percent for the PD.<\/p>\n
While prospects for the PD had been dim prior to the
\ncampaigning period, the prospects for another new strong
\nperformer, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), was already quite
\npromising. According to the LSI November survey, the PKS would
\nwin more than 2.5 percent of the vote. The PKS' popularity
\nsteadily increased, as was shown by tracking surveys by IFES in
\nJanuary, February and early March 2004. In early March, the PKS
\nsecured 4.4 percent.<\/p>\n
As I wrote in this paper on March 25, the wider popularity of
\nthe PKS can be attributed to three reasons: strong image as an
\nantigraft political party, campaigning themes focusing on
\nuniversal issues such as corruption eradication, instead of the
\nimplementation of sharia, and massive mobilization by a solid
\nnetwork of party members. The success of the PKS appeared to be
\nthe result of collective efforts and consistent member
\ndevelopment.<\/p>\n
The key variables to the PKS' success were not available to
\nthe PD, whose officials are not known to the public. Unlike the
\nleader of the United Democratic Nationhood Party (PPDK), Ryaas
\nRasyid, a widely known academic-cum-bureaucrat, the leader of the
\nPD, S. Budhisantoso, is a University of Indonesia professor only
\nknown by his students and academic circles -- in the field of
\nanthropology.<\/p>\n
As a new party established two and a half years before the
\nelection took place, most people are not aware of the track
\nrecords of the PD and its executives. The PD is not a part of the
\ngovernment at the national or the local levels.<\/p>\n
Thus, the strong showing of the PD in the April 5 elections
\ncan solely be attributed to the popularity of Susilo Bambang
\nYudhoyono. The correlation between the popularity of the party
\nand the popularity of its presidential nominee is obvious. Before
\nhe was marginalized and eventually resigned from Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri's Cabinet, Susilo was already a popular
\npresidential aspirant. But his popularity was only second or
\nthird to Megawati and Amien Rais.<\/p>\n
His resignation from the Cabinet, which attracted huge media
\nattention and generated a lot of front-page news, seemed to
\ncontribute to his sky-rocketing popularity. Both surveys by LSI
\nand IFES showed that the retired four-star general is now the
\nmost popular presidential candidate, even more popular than
\nMegawati.<\/p>\n
Susilo's increasing popularity seemed to be the main factor
\nthat prompted many people to vote for the PD, as this party has
\nfrom the outset touted Susilo as its presidential candidate.<\/p>\n
Hence, people who want Susilo for president, have no choice
\nbut to vote for Susilo as Law No.23\/2003 stipulates that in order
\nto be eligible to nominate a presidential and vice presidential
\ncandidate, a political party or a coalition of parties must win
\nat least 3 percent of the seats in the House of Representative or
\n5 percent of the popular vote for the House.<\/p>\n
The only way to secure a ticket for Susilo for the
\npresidential election is to help the PD win at least 3 percent of
\nthe seats at the House. This stipulation turned out to be a
\nblessing in disguise for the PD.<\/p>\n
In a way, the pattern of votes for the PD resembles the
\npattern of votes for President Megawati's Indonesian Democratic
\nParty of Struggle (PDI-P) in 1999. At that time, Megawati was at
\nthe height of her popularity. Apart from being one of Sukarno's
\ndaughters, she was seen as Soeharto's political victim. Most
\npeople who voted for her party, did so because they liked
\nMegawati -- not the party. These voters were people longing for a
\nhero or heroine. When they lost admiration or trust in Megawati,
\nthey turned their attention to Susilo as their new hero.<\/p>\n
It is therefore safe to predict that many of the votes for the
\nPD were cast by former Megawati supporters, who in 1999 voted for
\nher party.<\/p>\n
The votes for the PD would have been much larger had the
\ncampaigning period not been limited to three weeks. The PD's
\npopularity would have been greatly bolstered had Susilo been able
\nto campaign for more than three weeks.<\/p>\n
According to the LSI survey, the PD's popularity was only 5
\npercent (based on responses from respondents), while the
\npopularity of Susilo was 20 percent.<\/p>\n
However, the trend whereby it was a charismatic figure that
\nattracted votes for a political party is worrisome. The case of
\nthe PDI-P clearly shows that as Megawati's popularity fell, the
\nvotes for her party decreased as well.<\/p>\n
Even though the PD will certainly pass the 3 percent
\nelectoral threshold required to be eligible for 2009 election,
\nthe PD is going to fail to win a significant number of votes in
\n2009 if in the next five years the popularity of Susilo nose-
\ndives too. The only thing that may prevent this from happening is
\norganizational improvement and satisfactory performance from its
\nrepresentatives in the House.<\/p>\n
The PD's success to most likely gain more than 5 percent of
\nthe popular vote for the House will make the party eligible to
\nnominate Susilo as a presidential candidate along with a running-
\nmate, who has not yet been determined.<\/p>\n
The success in the legislative election has brought the
\nparty's leaders to the next big challenge of mobilizing support
\nfor Susilo and whoever he chooses as his vice president. The PD
\nhas benefited from Susilo's popularity. It is now the PD's turn
\nto do the same for Susilo.<\/p>\n
It is quite clear that if most parties were established
\nprimarily to fight for a clearly defined ideology and mission,
\nthe PD was established with one purpose -- that is to become a
\npolitical vehicle for Susilo to become the president.<\/p>\n
However, bearing in mind that the PD will only be a medium-
\nsize party in the House, the party cannot do it alone. Which
\nparty the PD forms a coalition with will once again depend on
\nSusilo. So please watch Susilo movements over the next few weeks,
\nand take note of whom he receives at his residence.<\/p>",
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