Experts expect much of the same after 2004 election<\/p>\n
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
The 2004 general election is unlikely to improve the quality of
\npolitical life under the next government and legislature, with
\nstronger public apathy toward the upcoming election also
\napparent, analysts said on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Like before, the winners of the next election would retreat
\ninto a circle of politicians that keep out public participation,
\nsaid political analyst Syamsuddin Haris of the National Institute
\nof Sciences (LIPI).<\/p>\n
\"A lot of what the political elite then does will have little
\nconnection with public issues,\" he said in a seminar on the 2004
\ngeneral election held by the Centre for Strategic and
\nInternational Studies (CSIS).<\/p>\n
He said this gap was apparent today looking at legislators
\nat the House of Representatives (DPR). Critics have long lamented
\nthat politicking was undermining the House's role as a lawmaking
\nbody.<\/p>\n
They pointed to the political turmoil in the six months before
\nformer president Abdurrahman Wahid's ouster last year.<\/p>\n
Syamsuddin also noted that the presence of House factions had
\nno function other than to accommodate parties' political
\ninterests.<\/p>\n
While the House often became a forum for power sharing deals,
\nthe number of laws legislators passed almost always falls below
\nthe target they themselves set. This year, it was less than half
\nthe target.<\/p>\n
In one instance, the late deliberation of a law on bonds
\nforced the government to pay Rp 3.1 trillion (about US$348
\nmillion) in maturing bonds this year, that could have otherwise
\nbeen refinanced.<\/p>\n
Syamsuddin warned of a similar experience from the future
\npolitical elite produced by the 2004 general election.<\/p>\n
Signs that this is to happen becomes apparent with parties
\nstill playing to ethnic and religious sentiment rather than
\nsolutions to woo voters.<\/p>\n
Analysts predicted that parties would polarize between Islamic
\nand national parties again, as those stood the best chances of
\nattracting the masses.<\/p>\n
Although parties must look appealing at the grassroots levels,
\nrelying on just that means neglecting political education and the
\nquality of elected politicians.<\/p>\n
\"I don't expect a breakthrough in the 2004 general election,\"
\nCSIS political analyst J. Kristiadi told participants but added
\nthat democracy was by nature a time consuming effort and a \"long
\njourney without an end.\"<\/p>\n
The mushrooming of new political parties further showed that
\nthe public was disappointed with the present choice of parties
\nand their performance, he said.<\/p>\n
The number of political parties registered at the Ministry of
\nJustice and Human Rights has reached at least 225.<\/p>\n
But under the new political law and its tighter screening
\nprocess, scores of parties will likely drop their bid to join the
\nelection.<\/p>\n
\"Over time, the number of parties will drop, because just as a
\npublication cannot survive without its readers, a party cannot
\nsurvive without its voters,\" said Sjamsuddin.<\/p>\n
And as chances are slim of seeing many new parties in the 2004
\nelection, he added, the number of would-be voters ignoring their
\nvoting rights would also likely increase.<\/p>\n
\"They're not that many and are found among the educated class
\nand in urban areas,\" he explained.<\/p>\n
Analyst Riswandha Imawan of Gadjah Mada University said that
\nold parties would lose about 2 percent to 5 percent of their
\nvotes to newcomers in the 2004 election.<\/p>\n
His prediction was based on a poll in Yogyakarta where he said
\n80 percent of the respondents expressed disappointment over the
\nold parties.<\/p>\n
\"Gender issues will be important as parties now realize that
\nabout 51 percent of the voters will be women,\" Riswandha said on
\na separate occasion.<\/p>",
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