Experts discuss Golkar's gain from PDI rift<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Political scientists could not agree on whether
\nthe ruling Golkar would gain in the general elections now that
\nthe minority Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) is swamped in a
\nleadership crisis.<\/p>\n
One observer said Golkar would draw the votes from PDI, known
\nas \"the party of the youths\". Another said there would not be any
\nsignificant increase in Golkar's votes, while another said that
\nthe PDI conflict would only amount to a headache for the ruling
\ngroup.<\/p>\n
Arbi Sanit from the University of Indonesia's School of Social
\nand Political Sciences predicted a large amount of extra votes
\nfor Golkar coming from disillusioned PDI supporters.<\/p>\n
He suspected, however, that the conversion may be rigged as
\npart of a bargain between Soerjadi, the PDI chairman recently
\nelected at a government-backed rebel congress, and the
\ngovernment.<\/p>\n
\"(The government-backed) Golkar wants to get back the votes
\nthey lost to PDI in the 1992 election,\" he said. \"Two-thirds of
\nPDI voters are for Soerjadi, while the rest are for ousted PDI
\nchief Megawati Soekarnoputri. I predict that Soerjadi will give
\naway a number of his voters to Golkar.\"<\/p>\n
\"I think that Soerjadi will surrender five seats in the House
\nof Representatives to Golkar in the 1997 election,\" said Arbi,
\none of the founders of the Independent Election Monitoring
\nCommittee.<\/p>\n
Arbi's colleague, Burhan Magenda, blasted Arbi for his
\nspeculation. \"Golkar won't gain anything from the trouble in
\nPDI,\" said Burhan, who is also a member of Golkar.<\/p>\n
However, Burhan admitted that Golkar hoped to target young
\nvoters to add to its traditional voters.<\/p>\n
\"Golkar is ready to contend with either Megawati or Soerjadi.
\nGolkar will offer change in order to attract young voters, though
\nnot in a revolutionary style,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Arbi, on the other hand, did not believe that young voters,
\nwho reportedly make up a third of PDI devotees, would be
\nattracted to Golkar. \"They wouldn't. They would think that Golkar
\nis not radical enough for them,\" he said.<\/p>\n
In the 1992 election, Golkar's seats in the House decreased
\nwhile PDI's increased, although only by a slim margin. Analysts
\nsaid that the additional seats for PDI came from the votes of the
\nyoung and first-time voters.<\/p>\n
Another observer, Ridwan Saidi, said that the crisis in PDI is
\ncausing difficulties for Golkar and will continue to do so,
\nwhether it is settled soon or not.<\/p>\n
\"If PDI resolved its crisis, it'll then become a tough
\ncontender for Golkar in the 1997 election,\" he said. \"If the rift
\nis protracted, Golkar will have to go to a general election,
\nwhich does not give it a worthy sparring.\"<\/p>\n
The general election will be joined by PDI, Golkar and the
\nMoslem-oriented United Development Party (PPP).<\/p>\n
Ridwan, who is also a member of the independent poll watchdog,
\nsaid that the rift has earned PDI a worldwide reputation.<\/p>\n
Despite the split among members caused by the rift, there is
\nat least one group within the party -- Megawati's supporters --
\nwhich has become even more solid.<\/p>\n
\"The conflict has dramatically consolidated (Megawati's
\nloyalists),\" he said. \"Look at the masses that gather at PDI's
\nheadquarters on Jl. Diponegoro. Notice the media coverage. This
\nis more effective than any campaign.\"<\/p>\n
Arbi and Ridwan agreed, however, on how PPP would fare in the
\npoll.<\/p>\n
Arbi said that young PDI voters were not interested in, and so
\nwould not convert to, PPP. \"They see PPP as conservative as
\nGolkar. They think it is not radical enough. This is because PPP
\ndoes not pay enough attention to the aspirations of the
\ngrassroots as PDI does,\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"PPP is a 'lost child' in the poll,\" Ridwan said. \"Now people
\nare only talking about the government (Golkar group) and PDI. PPP
\nis not talked about anymore. I even think it will lose votes next
\nyear.\" (06)<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/experts-discuss-golkars-gain-from-pdi-rift-1447893297",
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