Expert doubts elections will be held on schedule<\/p>\n
YOGYAKARTA (JP): Political scientist Riswandha Imawan says the
\ngeneral election, scheduled for June 1999, is likely to be
\npostponed due to the economic and political problems besetting
\nthe country.<\/p>\n
The lecturer at Gadjah Mada University's School of Social and
\nPolitical Sciences told a media conference here on Wednesday that
\npeople's financial needs -- given that the three important events
\nof Christmas, New Year's and Idul Fitri came close together this
\nyear -- would be aggravated by growing conflicts in the political
\narena.<\/p>\n
Speaking along with other faculty members at the university's
\nyear-end evaluation, Riswandha cited \"conflicts between
\nMinister\/State Secretary Akbar Tandjung and Minister of Home
\nAffairs Syarwan Hamid over the question of civil servants'
\ninvolvement in politics\".<\/p>\n
He identified another conflict as occurring between Minister
\nof Cooperatives and Small Enterprises Adi Sasono and Coordinating
\nMinister for Economy, Finance and Industry Ginandjar
\nKartasasmita.<\/p>\n
He pointed out how Adi had been campaigning for economic
\npolicies which would benefit small entrepreneurs. Some people
\nbelieve the policies would be detrimental to conglomerates.
\nRiswandha believes Ginandjar, on the other hand, still champions
\npolicies that favor only conglomerates.<\/p>\n
\"It's now obvious that Adi has become an enemy of many big
\nbusinesses,\" Riswandha said.<\/p>\n
\"Under such a condition, isn't it possible that big clashes
\ncould occur (during the general election)?\" he asked.<\/p>\n
Tension, on the other hand, could be abated by at least three
\nfactors, the first of which was to what degree the government
\nholds a free and fair general election.<\/p>\n
He spoke of parties bent on rigging the polls, citing how many
\nof the government's proposed rulings for the political bills were
\naltered before the documents were submitted to the House of
\nRepresentatives in September.<\/p>\n
He did not mention any names.<\/p>\n
The second factor that could have a bearing on whether full-
\nblown conflicts break out is how the government handles public
\ngrievances over, among other things, the lack of action at
\ndemands to lay charges against Lt. Gen. (ret.) Prabowo Subianto
\nand former president Soeharto and track down escaped convict Eddy
\nTansil.<\/p>\n
The third was the \"Cendana factor\", Riswandha said, in
\nreference to Soeharto's residence on Jl. Cendana in Central
\nJakarta.<\/p>\n
He believed not all of the three fundamental forces needed for
\ndemocratization were under the control of reformists.<\/p>\n
\"The reformists only have political force, while the economic
\nand legal forces are still in the hands of the Soehartoists,\" he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
He recommended \"a political recovery to prevent a social
\nrevolution\" and the establishment of \"a political safety net\" as
\nmanifested in real reconciliation among elements in society,
\nincluding different religious groups.<\/p>\n
Two economists also spoke at the media conference: Anggito
\nAbimanyu and Revrisond Baswir.<\/p>\n
Revrisond concurred with Riswandha and said President B.J.
\nHabibie's administration suffered from a crisis of economic
\npolicies because of a split in the Cabinet.<\/p>\n
The conflicting stance of the economic ministers, he believed,
\nwould adversely influence the drafting of the state budget and
\nthe prospects of the 1999 economic situation as a whole.<\/p>\n
The first group were technocrats without political vision,
\nnamely those in the central bank, the Ministry of Finance and in
\nthe office of the National Development Planning Board.<\/p>\n
Standing opposite the first group were those within Habibie's
\norbit, whom Revrisond called as \"nationalist populists\" in the
\nministries of cooperatives and small enterprises, forestry,
\nagriculture, and industry and trade. (23\/44)<\/p>",
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