Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The war in the Gulf region has now entered\nits fourth week. Every day, as Iranian attacks on ships continue to keep\nthe Strait of Hormuz closed, approximately one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil\nand liquefied natural gas (LNG) production remains stalled and unable to\nflow to global markets.<\/p>\n
This means that every day, market players are updating calculations\non the size of the global energy supply lost this year. The larger the\nestimated supply loss, the higher the energy prices.<\/p>\n
Brent crude oil prices have indeed stabilised at US$99 per barrel\ntoday, Wednesday (25\/3\/2026) at 14:57 WIB. Brent crude prices once\nreached US$119 per barrel on 19 March 2026, or 76% more expensive than\nbefore the war broke out. Meanwhile, gas prices in Europe have surged\n85%.<\/p>\n
The reason energy prices have not risen much higher is that investors\nstill hope the supply flow will recover soon.<\/p>\n
According to Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale, cited from The Economist, the number\nof bets in the financial markets predicting prices will fall, or put\noptions, still outnumber bets that prices will rise, or call options,\nfor delivery in July and beyond.<\/p>\n
In other words, factoring in shipping delays, investors still hope\nconditions will return to normal by May.<\/p>\n
According to The Economist\u2019s calculations, if Iran complies with\nDonald Trump\u2019s threat on Saturday (21\/3\/2026) to reopen the strait\nwithin 48 hours or face attacks on its power plants\u2014which remains a\nlikely but uncertain possibility\u2014the global oil and gas markets will\nstill face supply shortages for months. This situation will ultimately\nburden the world economy.<\/p>\n
The Energy Market Will Not Recover Quickly<\/p>\n
The first problem starts with production. Unable to export and facing\nstorage limitations, Gulf countries have collectively cut their crude\noil production by 10 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n
That figure equals 10% of global production and 40% of their pre-war\nproduction levels.<\/p>\n
To restore production to previous levels, producers cannot simply\nturn everything back on immediately. They must first ensure all\nfacilities are still functional, clear pipeline blockages, then restart\noil wells by gradually restoring pressure to avoid damaging reservoirs.\nAfter that, initial processing facilities such as separators,\ncompressors, and treatment plants also need to be reactivated. All these\nprocesses require additional time.<\/p>\n
Indeed, as OPEC members, Gulf countries are accustomed to raising and\nlowering production in just a matter of days.<\/p>\n
However, this cut is far more sudden and deeper than anything they\nhave faced before. Experts estimate the process will take between two\nand four weeks.<\/p>\n
For the energy market to balance again after Hormuz reopens, three\nthings must happen.<\/p>\n
First, Gulf producers must return production to pre-war levels.\nSecond, ships must transport that supply to refineries abroad. Third,\nthose refineries must process it into usable fuel. Each stage in this\nindustrial chain requires time.<\/p>\n
The gas market situation appears even more complicated. Ras Laffan in\nQatar, which supplies nearly one-fifth of the world\u2019s LNG, has been shut\ndown since 2 March 2026 after an Iranian drone attack. In the past week,\nmissile strikes damaged two of the 14 gas liquefaction units at the\nfacility. That damage equals 17% of the plant\u2019s capacity and 3% of\nglobal supply.<\/p>\n
Qatar\u2019s Energy Minister said repairs will take three to five years,\nwhile expansion plans will also be delayed. The extent of damage at\nother sites remains unclear. However, even for facilities with lighter\ndamage, weeks of repairs will likely be needed before operations can\nresume.<\/p>\n
But repairs are only the initial stage. After that, all equipment\nmust be cleared of moisture to prevent pipes from cracking when recooled\nto minus 160 degrees Celsius.<\/p>\n
If this process is done too quickly, the metal will shrink unevenly,\nand welded joints could break. Anne-Sophie Corbeau from Columbia\nUniversity estimates the entire process could take up to seven\nweeks.<\/p>\n
The next stage is shipping. If a ceasefire occurs, most captains of\nthe approximately 480 ships currently stranded in the Gulf are likely to\nwant to see several attack-free days before attempting to leave.<\/p>\n
Most tankers are already fully loaded, and the Strait of Hormuz can\nhandle heavy traffic, so the queue could be cleared in about two weeks.\nAfter that, in theory, new ships could enter to transport the slowly\nrecovering production.<\/p>\n
However, in practice, it is unlikely that many ships will be willing\nto enter immediately in the coming weeks. Iran has attacked port\nfacilities in various Gulf areas, including fuel tanks, warehouses, and\nberthed ships. Major terminals appear largely intact, but some damage\nmay not yet have been disclosed.<\/p>\n
Additionally, sunken ships or damaged infrastructure may need to be\ncleared first to ensure safe navigation routes. John Ollett from Argus\nMedia said repairs to docks or loading equipment usually take\nmonths.<\/p>\n
Another issue comes from insurance. Most war risk insurance in the\narea has been cancelled. Insurance companies still willing to provide\ncoverage are now raising premiums from the previous 0.2% to 0.4% of the\nship\u2019s value to 1% or more. For the riskiest voyages, the figure can\nreach 10%.<\/p>\n
Anyone with internet access can find out the owner or charterer of a\nship, so ships that te<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/even-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-reopened-it-wont-be-enough-the-energy-crisis-will-persist-for-a-long-time-1774428685", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }