Tensions over Iran took centre stage at the 2026 Munich Security\nConference (MSC), following the regime\u2019s deadly crackdown on protesters\nand US President Donald Trump\u2019s pressure on Tehran to halt its nuclear\nprogramme.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s conservative leaders have maintained their grip on power\ndespite the largest wave of anti-regime protests in decades. Against\nthis backdrop, Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran\u2019s late Shah who now lives\nin exile, has been actively attending international conferences to call\nfor regime change in Iran.<\/p>\n
During a session on Iran\u2019s future on Friday (13 February) and at a\npress conference the following day, Pahlavi highlighted human rights\nabuses by the Iranian regime. Several human rights groups have reported\nthat the regime\u2019s repressive actions against citizens during anti-regime\nprotests have killed thousands.<\/p>\n
Pahlavi, regarded by some Iranians as a figure capable of uniting the\nnation against the government of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali\nKhamenei, presented a political roadmap for Iran\u2019s future and a concept\nfor a \u201ctransitional government\u201d at the MSC.<\/p>\n
Approximately 250,000 people subsequently joined a demonstration in\nMunich on Saturday (14 February) to oppose the Iranian regime and\nsupport the Pahlavi-led opposition.<\/p>\n
\u201cI am here to guarantee a transition towards a secular and democratic\nfuture,\u201d Pahlavi said in his address.<\/p>\n
\u201cI am committed to being a transitional leader for you, so that one\nday we can determine the fate of our country through a transparent\ndemocratic process via the ballot box.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, a transitional government could only be formed if the\ncurrent regime collapses. Despite facing unprecedented pressure, the\nregime has endured and reportedly intensified domestic repression.\nNevertheless, extensive discussions on the possibility of regime change\nin Iran also took place at the MSC.<\/p>\n
Reading Washington\u2019s Position<\/strong><\/p>\n Pahlavi, who is part of the Iranian opposition in exile, hinted at\nhopes for US action to end the fundamentalist regime.<\/p>\n During the anti-regime protests, US President Donald Trump had said\nthat help would come for the Iranian people. The Trump administration is\ncurrently in the process of negotiating with Tehran over its nuclear\nprogramme, though observers consider it unlikely the talks will produce\ndefinitive results.<\/p>\n \u201cI think many Iranians, both inside and outside the country, hope for\nintervention that could disable the regime\u2019s instruments of repression\nand give us the opportunity to resolve this crisis comprehensively,\u201d\nPahlavi said at the MSC forum. He stressed that what he was requesting\nwas \u201chumanitarian intervention\u201d to prevent further loss of life.<\/p>\n Having initially tempered threats of military intervention following\nthe deaths of protesters, Trump again threatened to use force if the\nIranian regime refused to negotiate a new \u201cdeal\u201d on its nuclear\nprogramme.<\/p>\n Last week, the US dispatched a second aircraft carrier group to the\nArabian Sea. On Friday (13 February), Trump said it would be \u201ca very bad\nday\u201d for Iran if an agreement between the two countries failed to\nmaterialise.<\/p>\n Pahlavi acknowledged that the US president needed to give diplomacy a\nchance before opting for military action. He expressed his belief that\nTrump understood the Iranian people still believed in the promises he\nmade at the height of the January 2026 demonstrations.<\/p>\n Karim Sadjadpour, a policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for\nInternational Peace, said that replacing the regime was no simple\nmatter.<\/p>\n \u201cEveryone in Washington, including President Trump, if they could\npress a button and remove the Iranian regime, they would certainly do\nso,\u201d he said during an MSC panel discussion, adding that the Trump\nadministration was likely considering the aftermath, such as what\noccurred following US military interventions in Iraq and Libya.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, Sadjadpour argued that a US strike on Iran remained\nhighly possible.<\/p>\n \u201cIn 2018, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. In 2020, he\nordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani, a military commander and close\nassociate of Khamenei. In the summer of 2025, he dropped 14\nbunker-buster bombs on Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities,\u201d Sadjadpour explained.\nHe added that, in his view, the likelihood of Trump launching a strike\non Iran was greater than the chances of both sides reaching a nuclear\nagreement.<\/p>\n Europe Favours Diplomacy<\/strong><\/p>\n Whilst the US continues to pressure Iran with the threat of military\nforce, the European Union (EU) has called for de-escalation and favours\nsanctions and support for civil society in Iran.<\/p>\n In January 2026, when the Trump administration appeared on the verge\nof striking Iran, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said at a\njoint press conference with EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas that the\nIranian people \u201cdo not want regime change imposed by external forces\u201d\nand warned of potential unintended consequences.<\/p>\n According to Kallas, many regimes throughout history have been\noverthrown, but the question is what happens afterwards.<\/p>\n \u201cYou need alternatives and decisions that truly come from within the\ncountry for the state to continue functioning.\u201d<\/p>\n For Pahlavi, Europe\u2019s refusal to support US military action could be\nperceived as a lack of support for efforts to topple the regime.<\/p>\n Although Europe has played a significant role in imposing sanctions\non Iran\u2019s nuclear programme, statements by officials at the MSC did not\nclarify Europe\u2019s position should the US actually launch a strike, as\nthey continued to prioritise diplomacy over the use of force.<\/p>\n In 2015, several major European nations helped mediate a landmark\nagreement to limit Iran\u2019s nuclear programme, particularly uranium\nenrichment, accompanied by the lifting of economic sanctions.<\/p>\n The agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action\n(JCPOA), was signed in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 nations \u2014 the\nUS, the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia, and Germany.<\/p>\n Trump called the deal \u201chorrible\u201d and \u201cone-sided,\u201d then withdrew the\nUnited States from the agreement in 2018 during his first term, a move\nthat dismayed America\u2019s European partners.<\/p>\n Now, as Trump pushes for a new nuclear deal whilst keeping the\nmilitary option open, Europe appears only able to wait and see how\nevents unfold.<\/p>\n \u201cThe impetus for change must come from the Iranian people themselves\nwho are demanding freedom, and Europe needs to align its actions with\nthat reality,\u201d said European Parliament President Roberta Metsola at the\nMSC.<\/p>\n She added that the EU\u2019s decision to designate Iran\u2019s Revolutionary\nGuards as a terrorist organisation marked a turning point and signalled\nthe end of routine European diplomacy.<\/p>\n \u201cEurope must show clear support for those risking their lives in\ndemonstrations. We stand with you,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Relations with Iran Increasingly Uncertain<\/strong><\/p>\n In 2025, Europe also reimposed UN sanctions against Iran on the\ngrounds of JCPOA violations, resulting in increased financial pressure\non the regime. The demonstrations in January 2026 were partly driven by\neconomic grievances, including high unemployment and inflation.<\/p>\n International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael\nGrossi acknowledged that a \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d relationship with Iran\nappeared no longer feasible. Following the US strikes on Iran\u2019s nuclear\nfacilities in July 2025, Tehran suspended cooperation with the IAEA.<\/p>\n \u201cThis situation cannot be allowed to drag on. There are political\ncircumstances at play. On our side, there has been some progress.\nHowever, nuclear facilities and materials remain, particularly highly\nenriched uranium that must continue to be closely monitored. So the\npolitical process and technical oversight proceed in parallel,\u201d Grossi\nstated.<\/p>\n The US and Iran are scheduled to meet again in Geneva next week to\ncontinue nuclear negotiations, with Oman once again serving as\nmediator.<\/p>",
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