EU -- down but not out<\/p>\n
In a seminar on the European Union in Jakarta last month,
\nFrench Ambassador Renaud Vignal cautioned that a rejection by
\nFrench voters of the European Constitution Treaty should not be
\nconstrued as \"the end of the world.\" A rejection, which is
\nprecisely what Sunday's referendum in France produced, would
\nprobably hold back the process of Europe integration, but it
\nwould not unravel the European Union and all the achievements it
\nhas made to date, the ambassador argued.<\/p>\n
Still, the French rejection almost surely deals a fatal blow
\nto the treaty itself because the consensus by European leaders
\nwhen they penned their agreement in October last year was that
\nthe constitution would be sent back to the drawing board if any
\none single member failed to ratify it. Given this rule, other
\nratification processes, including Wednesday's referendum in the
\nNetherlands, are nothing but an academic exercise.<\/p>\n
That it should be France, of all the 25 members, which
\nrejected the treaty first, was something that many did not
\nforesee, at least not until late last year. As the largest member
\nand the major founder along with Germany, France's participation
\nin anything Europe had come to be taken for granted. At least,
\nthat is what leaders in Paris thought before Sunday.<\/p>\n
Obviously, they could not have been more wrong.<\/p>\n
Many analysts said the French \"no\" vote was not so much a
\nrejection of the idea of a more unified Europe through this
\nsingle constitution as a rejection of the government in Paris for
\nforging ahead with the plan too soon when more mundane bread-and-
\nbutter issues still preoccupied the minds of many French people.<\/p>\n
Some of them have even, rightly or wrongly, attributed the
\ncurrent high unemployment and soaring inflation in France to the
\n2002 switch to the euro. On this, many other Europeans,
\nparticularly the Germans, have the same sentiments. For wealthier
\nEuropean countries, the switch to the euro has been so painful
\nthat they bear resentment toward any plan to step up the European
\nintegration process at this stage.<\/p>\n
In the wake of the French vote, few people have talked about
\nthe treaty and what a single constitution would mean for the
\nEuropean people. That question is simply irrelevant to most
\npeople in Europe today, in spite of the vigorous campaign by its
\nsupporters.<\/p>\n
Sunday's rejection shows that President Jacques Chirac and his
\ngovernment are out of touch with their own people. It is just as
\nwell that Paris, along with nine other members, decided on
\nholding popular consultations to find out what the people felt.
\nThe other 15 members have ratified, or would seek to ratify the
\ntreaty, through parliamentary process, which is a harder way to
\ngauge public sentiment.<\/p>\n
Obviously, Euro-skeptics and other detractors would try to
\nmake the most out of this victory. President Chirac meanwhile
\nwould have to prepare for the political fallout from this defeat.
\nAnd as usual, the doomsayers would exaggerate the impact of the
\nFrench vote.<\/p>\n
But going by what the French ambassador said, the European
\nUnion is nowhere near crumbling.<\/p>\n
As the European Union has come this far, it is unlikely that
\nSunday's vote would roll back all the hard work, and all the
\nsacrifices, that their leaders and people have made in the past
\nto bring about a more integrated, more unified and more peaceful
\nEurope. No one was left in doubt, even after the French rejection
\non Sunday, that closer integration is the way forward for Europe.<\/p>\n
It's nevertheless sad to see the Constitution Treaty, the
\nresult of years of hard work and painful negotiations, about to
\nbe shelved. But if the constitution is to be the principles
\ngoverning relations for the people in Europe, and between Europe
\nand the rest of the world, then its introduction must have the
\npopular support of the people living within Europe.<\/p>\n
The French \"no\" vote tells us that no matter how good and how
\ndesirable a single constitution is for Europe's future, its time
\nhas not yet come.<\/p>",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
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