Estrada faces tough times in Philippines<\/p>\n
By Ruben Alabastro<\/p>\n
MANILA (Reuters): Joseph Estrada, the man from tinsel town,
\nhas survived the toughest first 100 days in office of any
\nPhilippine president, but concerns persist over his ability to
\nlead the country out of its deepening economic gloom.<\/p>\n
Since he took office on June 30 after posting the biggest
\nwinning margin in a free election in Philippine history, every
\nday has been a struggle for the former movie star to convince
\nskeptics he is the right man for the job.<\/p>\n
\"What foreign investors want is a clear policy direction,\"
\nBruce Gale, regional manager of the Singapore-based Political and
\nEconomic Risk Consultancy Ltd (PERC), told Reuters.<\/p>\n
One problem relates to \"the difficulty President Estrada is
\nhaving trying to establish a reputation as a credible leader\",
\nthe business consultancy firm said in its latest survey rating.
\nEstrada himself has said he could not have assumed the presidency
\nat a worse time.<\/p>\n
Hammered by Asia's financial turmoil, the peso had lost 37
\npercent of its value when Estrada took over, the stock market was
\nin a tailspin, thousands had lost their jobs, the treasury was
\nrunning a huge deficit, and investments were dwindling.<\/p>\n
\"I am anxious that the steep decline in investments in the
\nlast three months might continue and that is the biggest
\ndestabilizing factor,\" said Alex Magno, political science
\nprofessor at the state run University of the Philippines.
\n\"We're facing a very bleak Christmas,\" he added.<\/p>\n
Swamped as the country is with problems, the biggest issue
\ndogging Estrada is his administration's failure to inspire
\nconfidence, analysts said.<\/p>\n
A lack of clarity on how policy decisions are made, a
\nseemingly laid-back leadership, media reports of cabinet
\ninfighting and absence of a core of professional technocrats have
\ncreated an image of a weak presidency, they said.<\/p>\n
\"The next 100 days will probably be more critical than the
\nfirst 100 because... there are no excuses any more,\" Magno said.
\n\"It's a whole battlefield that the president must approach with
\nthe attitude of a field marshal.\"<\/p>\n
Robert Sears, executive director of the American Chamber of
\nCommerce, which represents 770 U.S. companies, said Estrada had
\ndone \"a fair job\" considering the economic storm battering the
\nregion.<\/p>\n
\"Give him a chance to prove himself,\" Sears said. \"I think the
\nway the press has ganged up on him, they should back off a little
\nbit, give him a breathing spell.\"<\/p>\n
But Sears agreed Estrada must send clear signals to the
\nbusiness community that the liberalization policy launched by his
\npredecessor, Fidel Ramos, would remain firmly entrenched.<\/p>\n
Passing laws that would allow foreigners to enter into the
\nnationalized retail trade and own real estate would send a strong
\nmessage, he said.<\/p>\n
Despite a series of presidential missteps, including
\nembarrassing diplomatic gaffes, Estrada has chalked up some
\nsuccesses which showed he could be decisive when required.<\/p>\n
Analysts said these included his intervention in the
\nacrimonious Philippine Airlines dispute, which allowed the
\nfinancially troubled flag carrier to fly again two weeks after it
\nclosed down.<\/p>\n
His unprecedented decision to scrap congressional \"pork
\nbarrel\" funds -- a major source of corruption -- also won him
\nplaudits.<\/p>\n
But anxieties persist over the possible return of so-called
\n\"cronyism\" in business as a result of Estrada's links to former
\nallies of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos.<\/p>\n
The fear grew when, a week after Estrada took office, his
\npolitical patron and Marcos ally Eduardo Cojuangco recaptured
\ncontrol of the San Miguel Corp conglomerate.<\/p>\n
\"With President Estrada in power, the possibility of a return
\nof cronyism has raised concerns about the extent to which the
\nPhilippine economy may once again move away from free market
\nprinciples,\" the PERC risk rating said.<\/p>\n
Still, PERC said, that might be unlikely soon because the
\nPhilippines needs the goodwill of the International Monetary
\nFund, which frowns on cartels and monopolies.<\/p>\n
PERC's Gale said that while investors looked at the
\nPhilippines more positively than Indonesia or Malaysia, a wrong
\npolicy turn by Estrada could have serious economic consequences.
\nThe hope of business is that \"the new President does not make a
\nmisstep somewhere to upset the applecart,\" he said.<\/p>",
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