analysis Asia<\/p>\n
Energy security versus geopolitics: ASEAN states face tough choices\nover Iran\u2019s Strait of Hormuz passage<\/p>\n
While Iran\u2019s selective approach to allowing access to the Strait of\nHormuz could push more countries to the negotiating table, the bigger\nissue is having to engage on Tehran\u2019s terms rather than on the basis of\na purely commercial right of passage, analysts say.<\/p>\n
KUALA LUMPUR: More Asian countries dependent on energy imports could\nenter talks with Iran on allowing their ships safe passage in the\ncrucial Strait of Hormuz if the Middle East conflict drags on, analysts\nsay.<\/p>\n
But these countries would also have to weigh securing their energy\nsupplies against the optics of accepting Tehran\u2019s politicisation of the\nstrait, possibly paying a toll fee and angering the United States, the\nanalysts told CNA.<\/p>\n
Iran said it has allowed several countries\u2019 ships to cross the Strait\nof Hormuz since its forces effectively slowed traffic through the narrow\nsea lane to a trickle during the war, which began in late February.<\/p>\n
The list comprises largely Asian states and includes China, India,\nPakistan, Japan, Thailand and Malaysia.<\/p>\n
In deciding the list, Iran assesses whether a country is directly\nhostile or supportive of the US-Israel position in the conflict, say\nobservers.<\/p>\n
Malaysia, for instance, likely got the nod because of its traditional\nposition as a moderate Muslim country, combined with its longstanding\nand generally consistent engagement with Tehran, they add.<\/p>\n
Observers added that Tehran\u2019s selective approach might push other\nmembers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) facing\ndomestic fuel shortages - like the Philippines and Vietnam - to\nnegotiate for access in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is likely that more Asian and ASEAN states will explore similar\narrangements, especially energy-import dependent economies. However, how\nIran responds will depend on its broader strategic calculations, so\noutcomes will vary,\u201d said Ilango Karuppannan, a retired Malaysian\ndiplomat with more than three decades of experience in the foreign\nservice.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran is likely to assess countries based on their political\nalignment and strategic posture. States seen as closely aligned with the\nUS, or hosting US military facilities, may face greater difficulty,\nwhile more neutral countries may have better prospects.\u201d<\/p>\n
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted fuel supplies and\npushed up prices across the region. The strait, which connects the\nPersian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, handles about a quarter of the world\u2019s\nseaborne oil trade, with roughly 80 per cent of these shipments bound\nfor Asia.<\/p>\n
The Philippines, for instance, has declared a national state of\nenergy emergency, while Vietnam has temporarily waived an environmental\ntax on fuel to cut soaring petrol prices.<\/p>\n
CRITICAL WATERWAY<\/p>\n
Since Mar 2, the total number of ships that passed through the Strait\nof Hormuz has been roughly equal to what the critical waterway used to\nsee in just a day, according to an analysis by maritime information\nservice Lloyd\u2019s List published on Mar 25.<\/p>\n
A total of 142 vessels have transited since the start of March, but\n67 per cent of that traffic has a direct affiliation with Iran either\nthrough trade or ownership, Lloyd\u2019s List said. The remaining trickle of\nnon-Iranian ships is made up primarily of Greece-owned or affiliated\nvessels (15 per cent) and Chinese vessels (10 per cent).<\/p>\n
Since Mar 13, a total of 26 vessel transits through the strait have\nfollowed a modified route in Iranian territorial waters and pre-approved\nunder a \u201ctoll booth\u201d system that requires ship operators to submit to a\nvetting scheme, the report said, without breaking down the ships by flag\nor affiliation.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile not all ships are paying a direct toll, at least two vessels\nhave and the payment is settled in (Chinese) yuan,\u201d the report\nadded.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg reported on Mar 24 that payments of as much as US$2 million\nper voyage were being sought on an adhoc basis, something that Iran\ndenies.<\/p>\n
Countries like Pakistan, India, China and Malaysia have reported\ntheir ships being allowed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. India\nand Malaysia have said their ships would be granted toll-free\naccess.<\/p>\n
Earlier in March, a Thai bulk carrier travelling in the waterway was\nattacked, although Bangkok said on Mar 28 it had reached an agreement\nwith Tehran to allow access to Thai oil vessels.<\/p>\n
Safe passage in the strait has become a persistent issue in the\nMiddle East conflict, with analysts saying the disruption to global\nsupply chains will be felt long after the route is reopened and ships\nhave been cleared to pass en masse.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to end the US\nmilitary campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains\nlargely closed, the Wall Street Journal reported on Mar 31, even as\nTehran pushes on with plans to introduce a formal toll system for ships\ntransiting the strait, a move Washington has publicly condemned.<\/p>\n
The conflict has also exposed how vulnerable ASEAN is to sudden\nshocks and disruptions, with the bloc\u2019s trade, energy as well as\nagriculture and food security resilience set to be hit for months and\neven years, experts told CNA, stressing a need to diversify supply\nsources and routes.<\/p>\n
Even then, doubts linger over alternative sea routes like the Red\nSea, with the Iran-backed Houthis recently joining the conflict and\nlaunching attacks against Israel.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere may be alternative routes or bypass options, but their\nfeasibility, capacity and cost-effectiveness are still uncertain,\nespecially if disruption is prolonged,\u201d said Joanne Lin, coordinator of\nthe ASEAN Studies Centre at Singapore\u2019s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe more realistic lesson for ASEAN might be to diversify suppliers\nwhere possible, strengthen strategic reserves, improve contingency\nplanning and accelerate renewables and energy transition efforts, so\nthat the region is less vulnerable to shocks linked to a single maritime\nchokepoint.\u201d<\/p>\n
GETTING THE HORMU<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/energy-security-versus-geopolitics-asean-states-face-tough-choices-over-irans-strait-of-hormuz-passage-1775044271", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }