Elite games hamper reform impetus<\/p>\n
Peter Milne, Managing Editor Van Zorge Report on Indonesia, Jakarta<\/p>\n
As the pressure builds on Golkar Chairman Akbar Tandjung,
\nappeals can be heard for President Megawati Soekarnoputri to
\nremain steadfast in her resistance to overtures from Golkar to
\nallow the party off the hook. Some observers go so far as to
\nsuggest that Megawati appeal to the \"people\" to fight corruption
\nand keep the country striving for reform. They point out that
\nsuch a stance would make Megawati very popular with the rakyat
\nkecil, the little people, as surely it would.<\/p>\n
Never one to be quick to pick a fight, even if the fight is in
\nthe cause of fighting corruption, Megawati is likely to say as
\nlittle as possible and do even less -- other than to allow the
\nlegal process to take its course. A hands-off style would be her
\nexpected approach to such a prickly issue. A special committee
\ninvestigation into the Akbar case by the legislature (DPR)
\nremains a possibility. But if the investigation remains with the
\nattorney general's office then what appears to be a clear-cut
\ncase of corruption and electoral rule-breaking will probably
\nbecome bogged down in legal technicalities.<\/p>\n
What we are witnessing is simply elite politics at its highest
\nlevel, as the various players position and reposition for the
\n2004 general election. The underlying trend is that nothing much
\nof importance gets done. And this is fine with many people
\nbecause doing as little as possible is the best recipe for
\navoiding instability over the next couple of years. The reform
\nimpetus has already slowed, relative stability (in terms of post-
\nSoeharto Indonesia) has returned and, while the political pundits
\nmay not have noticed, the stock market has registered a
\nsignificant post-New Year bounce.<\/p>\n
The reality is that the Indonesian political system and those
\nwithin the elite who have influence over it remain bound by New
\nOrder interests. Even the disqualification of Golkar from the
\nnext general election will have not the slightest impact on this
\nsituation, as we would probably only see the creation of a
\n\"Golkar Perjuangan\" phoenix. Arguably, pushing hard for real
\nreform at this stage will only create real instability, which
\ncould overflow onto the streets. Very few players, and certainly
\nnot Megawati, are prepared to take this risk.<\/p>\n
If the government were really serious about reform, it would
\nneed to take drastic steps to eradicate an entire generation of
\npoliticians and bureaucrats with links to the New Order regime.
\nFar more effective than banning Golkar, this could mean for
\nexample banning anyone from elected office who had served for
\nmore than five years in a position, either political or
\nbureaucratic, under the Soeharto regime.<\/p>\n
A powerful but apolitical and totally transparent selection
\ncommittee would also have to be established to conduct \"fit-and-
\nproper\" tests on all new senior appointments, such as director-
\ngenerals and heads of state-owned enterprises, as a prelude to
\nreplacing all the incumbents. Only in this way would the
\ngovernment stand any chance of inducting new (and hopefully
\ncleaner) blood into the political system and the upper echelons
\nof the bureaucracy. Only then would a reformist drive have a
\nreal hope of making significant progress.<\/p>\n
But let's be realistic: This sort of reformist drive is almost
\ncertainly not going to occur, especially under Megawati.
\nInstead, as most people are beginning to realize, next to nothing
\nwill happen. There will be no dangerous struggle between the old
\nand the new, and things in Indonesia will remain relatively
\nstable, notwithstanding the political \"white noise\" that is
\nconstantly in our ears from political bickering. But all this is
\njust elite politics, nothing more. Most Indonesians are just
\ngetting on with their lives as best they can. Is this so bad? It
\ncould be far worse.<\/p>\n
It is hard to see any major triggers for serious unrest at the
\npresent time. The price rises just imposed by the government,
\nafter some initial hesitation, have failed to provoke more than
\ntoken demonstrations. An Argentina-style currency collapse is a
\nred herring, with the rupiah already significantly undervalued
\nand free floating. The separatist conflicts in Aceh and Papua
\nwill grind on, without clear progress in any direction. One
\ntrigger could be some form of direct military involvement in
\nIndonesia by U.S. forces as part of the war against international
\nterrorism, but the likelihood of this is too small.<\/p>\n
In the meantime no significant progress will be made by the
\ngovernment, and most of the elite will be increasingly
\npreoccupied by positioning for the general election, not least
\nMegawati. Life will carry on much as before for most Indonesians
\nand the businesses they work for. And the economy will continue
\nto grow, if only at a modest rate. One new business opportunity
\nin this environment springs to mind: If cheap filters for the
\n\"white noise\" of Indonesian politics could be effectively
\nproduced, they would probably find a market of over 200 million
\nbuyers.<\/p>",
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