Electronics crunch may hit Asian economies' exports<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (Reuter): The heady days of double-digit export
\ngrowth may be over for Asia's booming economies, at least for
\nthis year, as the global electronics crunch bites.<\/p>\n
\"This is a trend throughout Asia because of the dominance of
\nelectronics in many countries' export markets,\" said Desmond
\nSupple, an economist with the I.D.E.A think-tank in Singapore.<\/p>\n
Already, the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and
\nTrade (KIET) predicts South Korea's export growth will slow to
\n11.3 percent this year after a 30.3 percent rise in 1995, before
\nrecovering to 13.5 percent next year.<\/p>\n
\"The slowdown in the technology sector in the U.S. and Europe
\nis a major factor depressing the nation's exports,\" said KIET's
\nShin Hyun-soo. \"The falling demand in the high-tech sectors such
\nas computers dealt a deadly blow to South Korea's semiconductor
\nexports,\" Shin said.<\/p>\n
Semiconductors account for about 18 percent of South Korea's
\nexports.<\/p>\n
In Singapore, non-oil exports in June were down 6.1 percent,
\nthe first drop in more than three years. Economists said that was
\na sign of worse to come for 1996, primarily because of the
\ndownturn in electronics exports to the United States and the
\nEuropean Union (EC).<\/p>\n
They then scrambled to pare down gross domestic product (GDP)
\nprojections for Singapore, where electronics make up about 60
\npercent of non-oil domestic exports.<\/p>\n
Another Asian Tiger, Hong Kong, will release June export data
\nthis week and analysts are expecting softer numbers.<\/p>\n
\"There will be substantial weakness in the June figures, I
\nunderstand,\" said Ian Perkin, economist at the Hong Kong Chamber
\nof Commerce.<\/p>\n
In the first five months of the year, Hong Kong exports were
\nup 6.4 percent at HK$541.3 billion.<\/p>\n
\"That's very slow growth for Hong Kong. There is a level of
\nconcern about the slow growth of trade this year,\" Perkin said.<\/p>\n
Malaysia saw its electronics exports contract in June by 6.1
\npercent month-on-month against growth of nine percent in the
\nprevious month and a 14 percent rise in April.<\/p>\n
It is the world's largest exporter of packaged and assembled
\nsemiconductors, which were 22.4 percent of total manufactured
\nexports of 147.5 billion ringgit (US$59.24 billion) last year.<\/p>\n
Thailand<\/p>\n
Thailand has lowered its export growth target for this year to
\n14 percent from 18 percent. Some government ministers are not
\nconfident even the new target will be reached after export growth
\nin the first half of this year of only eight percent.<\/p>\n
Economists said the duller Asian export picture for 1996 was
\ndue largely to surplus electronics stocks in the United States
\nand excess production capacity in Asia, which expanded in 1995 to
\nmeet projections for strong U.S. demand.<\/p>\n
Last year, Asian electronics exports soared. So this year's
\nexport growth is being measured off a high base, they said.<\/p>\n
But they said there was light at the end of the tunnel,
\nbecause much of the downturn is cyclical and does not mark a
\nserious setback to Asia's robust growth pattern.<\/p>\n
\"The region's export growth will decline to single digits at
\nsome point towards the end of the year, but is unlikely to remain
\nthere for an extended period,\" an HG Asia report said.<\/p>\n
Economists said an expected recovery in U.S. book-to-bill
\norders by the third quarter of this year should mean an upturn in
\nAsia is on the cards by early 1997 and policymakers are unlikely
\nto be under too much pressure.<\/p>\n
\"In terms of policy response, it's an external demand
\ncondition. They aren't going to be as pressured as they should be
\nif it was a slowdown in competitiveness or productivity,\" Supple
\nof I.D.E.A. said.<\/p>",
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