{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1666504,
        "msgid": "el-nino-probability-reaches-80-bmkg-urges-vigilance-against-forest-and-land-fires-1775721063",
        "date": "2026-04-09 14:03:00",
        "title": "El Ni\u00f1o Probability Reaches 80%, BMKG Urges Vigilance Against Forest and Land Fires!",
        "author": "Gana Buana",
        "source": "MEDIA_INDONESIA",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Environment",
        "summary": "Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued an early warning for potential forest and land fires in 2026, forecasting a weak to moderate El Ni\u00f1o event with a 50-80% chance in the second half of the year, which could lead to an earlier, longer, and drier dry season. This phenomenon risks exacerbating drought conditions, increasing hotspots, and expanding fire risks from Riau to other Sumatra and Kalimantan regions. BMKG is preparing weather modification operations and calls for heightened preparedness from local governments, businesses, and communities to mitigate a potential major disaster.",
        "content": "<p>The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has\nsounded an early alarm regarding the threat of forest and land fires\n(karhutla) in 2026. The agency predicts that a weak to moderate El Ni\u00f1o\nphenomenon could emerge in the second half of next year, with a\nprobability of 50% to 80%.<\/p>\n<p>BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani stated that the current El Ni\u00f1o\nSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) condition remains in a neutral phase.\nNevertheless, signals of strengthening towards El Ni\u00f1o are beginning to\nappear and must be anticipated, as they risk intensifying the dry season\nin Indonesia.<\/p>\n<p>According to BMKG, the 2026 dry season could arrive earlier, last\nlonger, and create generally drier climatic conditions than normal. This\nsituation is assessed to open greater opportunities for the emergence of\nhotspots and the spread of fires, particularly in vulnerable areas.<\/p>\n<p>Faisal emphasised that the dry season and El Ni\u00f1o are not the same\nphenomenon. The dry season is an annual climate cycle, whereas El Ni\u00f1o\nis a global climate anomaly. However, when they occur together, rainfall\ncan drop much more sharply, triggering more severe droughts.<\/p>\n<p>ENSO itself is a global climate phenomenon influenced by changes in\nsea surface temperatures and air pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean.\nThis phenomenon consists of three phases: El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a, and neutral.\nFor Indonesia, the El Ni\u00f1o phase is associated with reduced rainfall,\nincreased drought risk, and threats of karhutla.<\/p>\n<p>BMKG\u2019s warning comes amid a rise in the number of hotspots. Up to\nearly April 2026, BMKG recorded 1,601 hotspots in Indonesia, higher than\nthe same period in previous years.<\/p>\n<p>BMKG maps the potential increase in karhutla to become visible in\nRiau starting in June. The risk is then expected to spread to Jambi and\nSouth Sumatra, before moving to West Kalimantan and South Kalimantan in\nJuly to August.<\/p>\n<p>To suppress the risk, BMKG is preparing mitigation measures through\nWeather Modification Operations (OMC), particularly with a land\nrewetting approach in peat areas. This step is taken to maintain soil\nmoisture when groundwater levels begin to fall, so the land is not\neasily ignited.<\/p>\n<p>BMKG also stresses that vigilance cannot rely solely on the central\ngovernment. Local governments, businesses, and communities are urged to\nincrease readiness from now on, so that the karhutla threat does not\nturn into a major disaster when the dry season peaks.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/el-nino-probability-reaches-80-bmkg-urges-vigilance-against-forest-and-land-fires-1775721063",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}