El Nino may ease up from May on: Agency<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG)
\npredicts the effect of the freak El Nino weather phenomenon --
\nwhich caused a prolonged dry season in some regions of Indonesia
\nlast year -- will most probably ease in May.<\/p>\n
The agency also forecast that this year's dry season would be
\n"moderately wet".<\/p>\n
Agency head Sri Diharto said if the scenario held true,
\nweather in Indonesia would soon return to normal and most regions
\nwould experience a typical dry season.<\/p>\n
He said the El Nino effect would prevail unless "God should
\ndecide otherwise".<\/p>\n
The unusual weather pattern is caused by a warming of the
\nPacific Ocean which causes climatic havoc around the globe.
\nExperts have said last year's El Nino has been the worst this
\ncentury.<\/p>\n
It caused a prolonged dry season which ruined crops around the
\nworld and exacerbated forest fires which razed at least 300,000
\nhectares of forest in Sumatra and Kalimantan last year.<\/p>\n
The agency said El Nino had been weakening since last month.<\/p>\n
It based its analysis on data provided by several
\nmeteorological agencies in the world including the United States'
\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and
\nASEAN's Specialized Meteorological Center.<\/p>\n
The agency said the freak weather pattern would continue to
\nweaken through next month, resulting in an increasing rainfall in
\nmost parts of the country except in East Kalimantan, where no
\nrainfall had been reported since January.<\/p>\n
BMG and world meteorological agencies have offered three
\nscenarios to explain the weakening of the El Nio effect but
\nwarned it would be more realistic to consider the scenarios from
\nMay onward.<\/p>\n
First, there is a 15 percent probability El Nino will last.<\/p>\n
Second, El Nino will ease up and weather conditions will
\nreturn to normal with a 50 percent possibility.<\/p>\n
Third, there will be a reversal of the hot El Nino effect,
\nnamely the cold La Nina -- during which there is heavy rainfall
\nand flooding.<\/p>\n
Diharto said his agency had decided that the second scenario
\nwould be "the most probable".<\/p>\n
Under this scenario, most parts of Java -- except some
\nsouthern parts of West Java such as Cianjur and Lebak regencies
\nand those in the southern part of Central Java like Kebumen and
\nMagelang -- would enjoy enough rainfall during this year's dry
\nseason, he said.<\/p>\n
A large proportion of the nation's remaining regencies --
\nexcept those in the eastern part of West Nusa Tenggara such as
\nAlor and Solor, and the western part of South Sulawesi like
\nMamuju, Polewai and Majene, and the southern part of Irian Jaya
\nlike Merauke -- would also see enough rainfall during the dry
\nseason.<\/p>\n
"People in the regions with less rainfall should be more
\nalert," Diharto warned, referring to the possible threat of crop
\nfailures and forest fires during the period.<\/p>\n
The dry season usually lasts from April until October.
\nHowever, the El Nino effect prolonged last year's dry season
\nuntil December in most parts of the country.<\/p>\n
Despite the predicted weakening of El Nino, Diharto said the
\nupcoming dry season would arrive at different times in different
\nparts of the country.<\/p>\n
Forty-three (42 percent) of 102 sampled regions across the
\ncountry -- 63 in Java and 39 outside Java -- will enter the dry
\nseason in May; 21 will enter the season in April; 31 regions in
\nJune; and seven in July.<\/p>\n
Rainfall over the period will also vary with 47 regions (46
\npercent) experiencing "below average" rainfall, 31 regions with
\nnormal rainfall, and 24 regions with "above average" rainfall.<\/p>\n
For further details on regional forecasts, interested parties
\ncan access the agency's homepage on http:\/\/bmg.cbn.net.id.<\/p>\n
Diharto said the agency's forecasts would be updated on the
\nfifth of every month. (aan)<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/el-nino-may-ease-up-from-may-on-agency-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
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