Economy grows robustly<\/p>\n
The provisional estimate by the Central Bureau of Statistics
\nput the growth of Indonesia's economy in terms of gross domestic
\nproduct at 7.34 percent last year. That figure far exceeded the
\nmost optimistic projections of between 6.5 and seven percent made
\nby most private-sector economists. But, as the bureau explained,
\nits estimate used the 1993 figures as the base year instead of
\nthe 1983 figures on which most analysts had made their
\nprojections. The bureau acknowledged that its own estimate would
\nhave come out at 6.81 percent, or close to the private-sector
\neconomists' projections, if it had been based on the 1983
\nfigures.<\/p>\n
As the change in the base year resulted in a much higher
\nfigure one might suspect that the government statistics agency
\ndeliberately fiddled with its data to get an impressive record to
\nannounce to the public.<\/p>\n
However, such suspicion is totally unwarranted. We do not
\nthink the bureau would ever play games with such a key economic
\nindicator. Instead, we are impressed by the great efforts of the
\nagency to maintain its credibility by gathering as objective,
\naccurate, up to date data as possible without any obligation to
\nsatisfy anyone.<\/p>\n
Indeed, because the economy has been undergoing significant
\nchanges in its structure over the last 10 years, 1983 is no
\nlonger relevant as the base for calculating the national output
\naccount.<\/p>\n
The changes in the economic structure have been so rapid and
\nso extensive as a result of the massive economic reform which was
\nstarted in 1985 that the sectoral shares in the GDP and the
\nsectoral weighted growth have significantly changed as well.<\/p>\n
We highly appreciate the efforts by the bureau to steadily
\nimprove the reliability and relevance of its statistics. For
\nexample, the agency also is now working to change the composition
\nof the commodities used in the consumer price index to get a more
\nreliable measure of inflation.<\/p>\n
As foreigners pour billions of dollars into the emerging
\nmarket countries like Indonesia, the availability of more up to
\ndate, reliable economic data has become one of the factors
\nconsidered in picking the place of investment. Economic
\nstatistics which are timely, accurate, comprehensive and
\nobjective are crucial for investors wanting to analyze business
\nprospects and risks. Calculated risks are the factor that makes
\nbusiness investment different from gambling.<\/p>\n
As the statistics bureau chief, Soegito, explained, the
\nsectoral shares in Indonesia's GDP have changed greatly over the
\npast decade. Between 1983 and 1993, the contribution of the
\nagricultural sector to the GDP declined from 22.9 percent to 17.9
\npercent and that of the quarrying and mining sector dropped from
\n20.8 percent to 9.6 percent. There is nothing to be deplored in
\nthese changes as they have been expected and are in line with the
\ndirection of the well planned economic development. But the
\ncontributions of the manufacturing sector grew impressively from
\n12.7 percent to 22.3 percent, the trading, hotel and restaurant
\nsector from 14.7 percent to 16.8 percent and the banking and
\nfinancial services from 5.3 percent to 7 percent.<\/p>\n
We are nonetheless worried about the agricultural sector, not
\nbecause of the sharp decline in its contribution to the GDP, but
\nrather due to its very low growth rate, a mere 0.32 percent last
\nyear. It is easy to find an excuse in climatic changes which are
\nbeyond our control. For example, the decline in the national rice
\noutput over the past two years has been blamed mostly on
\nunfavorable weather.<\/p>\n
We should not forget that despite its smaller contribution to
\nthe GDP, the agricultural sector remains the largest single
\nemployer and is the bastion of our food security that is crucial
\nfor our social and political stability.<\/p>\n
It is deplorable that, amid the overall robust growth of the
\neconomy and the increasing attention given to high technology in
\npursuit of higher value added, the productivity of such a basic
\nsector has not improved much. Why does agro-business, which has
\nalways been praised as one of the most potentially promising
\nsectors, remain a laggard? Why have farmers consistently
\ncomplained about the extreme shortage of high-yielding seeds for
\nfood and horticultural crops? Research on high-yielding seeds, we
\nthink, is no less important than that done in the high-technology
\nsectors. It is to be hoped that the extremely dissatisfying
\nperformance of the agricultural sector will force our agronomists
\nand other research and technology institutes into meaningful
\nretrospection on the priorities of their working programs.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/economy-grows-robustly-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
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