Economists tell Megawati not to waste public trust<\/p>\n
Kornelius Purba, The Jakarta Post, Singapore<\/p>\n
President Megawati Soekarnoputri should be able to use the
\nstrong political support she received from the public and her
\nopponents to speed up the implementation of her Cabinet's
\nprograms in rescuing the country's shrinking economy, Indonesian
\nsenior economists and political observers warned on Thursday.<\/p>\n
M. Sadli, who served several Cabinet posts under then
\npresident Soeharto, pointed out that Megawati's current position
\nwas quite safe, at least for the short term, from any significant
\nefforts to destabilize her leadership. He quickly added that it
\ncould not last long unless she was able to show convincing
\nprogress in reviving the dying economy.<\/p>\n
Sadli, a professor of economics at the University of
\nIndonesia, said people were desperately waiting for good news
\nfrom the economy, because they had been suffering too long and
\nwere tired of waiting for empty promises from the previous
\ngovernments. The terrorist attacks on the U.S. and the U.S.-led
\nmilitary attacks on Afghanistan have further worsened Indonesia's
\ngloomy economic prospects, he noted.<\/p>\n
He also said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World
\nBank (WB) and Asian Developing Bank (ADB) were also fed up with
\nMegawati's sluggishness in realizing the government's reform
\npledges such as carrying out the restructuring of banks, the sale
\nof IBRA assets, the overhaul of the judiciary system and stemming
\ncorruption.<\/p>\n
\"If Megawati's government can make some progress in this area,
\nthe situation may improve. Even under present difficulties, there
\nis still hope,\" said Sadli in his key note speech at a seminar
\nhere.<\/p>\n
The seminar was jointly organized by the Institute of
\nSoutheast Asian Studies (ISEAS) and the Jakarta-based Centre for
\nStrategic and International Studies (CSIS). The topic of the
\npublic forum was \"The First 100 Days of President Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri: Political and Economic Perspectives\". All the 12
\nspeakers were Indonesian, including CSIS's Jusuf Wanandi and
\npolitical scientist Mochtar Pabottingi. Coordinating Minister for
\nthe Economy Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti canceled his presence as he
\nhad to accompany Megawati to the opening session of the People's
\nConsultative Assembly (MPR).<\/p>\n
CSIS executive director Hadi Soesastro noted that both the
\nmarkets and the public had so far failed to see clear, coherent
\nand firm policies on the part of the government to deal with the
\ncountry's political and economic crisis.<\/p>\n
Hadi said that in the short term, the disposal of assets and
\nthe privatization of some state enterprises, which were already
\nin the pipeline, should be executed without further delay. The
\ngovernment needed successful cases quickly before confidence was
\ntotally lost. This requires, in the first instance, strong and
\neffective political will and leadership, Hadi said.<\/p>\n
According to Hadi, no new measures were required and there was
\nno need to look for radical, alternative measures to restore the
\neconomic chaos. There were also no quick fixes. A breakthrough
\nwould be obtained only through hard work and determination to
\naccelerate and strengthen the implementation of the government's
\nrecovery agenda, Hadi noted.<\/p>\n
\"If the government fails to undertake essential rescue
\nefforts, namely to accelerate the implementation of the recovery
\nagenda, the country and the economy will fall into an even deeper
\npit. The end result will be the greater incidence of poverty,
\nincreased unemployment and a downward economic spiral into a
\nstate of misery,\" the economist cautioned.<\/p>\n
Former governor of Bank Indonesia Soedradjad Djiwandono
\npraised Megawati for her strong determination in dealing with
\nmajor donors and international agencies, like the IMF. However,
\nthe Sept. 11 attack, its aftermath and the slowing down of the
\nglobal economy, clouded the prospect of economic recovery under
\nthe IMF-supported program, he remarked.<\/p>\n
\"This development has caused the promising start of Megawati's
\npresidency to run out of steam. Uncertainty is returning, the
\nrupiah is weakening and economic recovery seems to have
\ndisappeared, at least for the time being,\" said Soedradjad.<\/p>\n
Mochtar Pabottingi predicted that Megawati would be able to
\nfinish her term in 2004. He said most of her political rivals,
\nranging from Vice President Hamzah Haz to Assembly Speaker Amien
\nRais were still not strong enough to challenge her leadership.<\/p>\n
Mochtar, however, criticized Megawati for her weak leadership
\nand poor vision. Megawati was surrounded by people who upheld the
\nstatus quo, many of them were former New Order politicians and
\ngovernment officials. Her inability to eradicate corruption,
\ncollusion and nepotism has been strongly influenced by those
\npeople, Mochtar said.<\/p>\n
\"It is difficult to expect much from her if she continues to
\nadopt her housewife style of management, as she recently
\ndisclosed,\" said Mochtar.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, rector of Jakarta's State Institute of Islamic
\nStudies (IAIN) Azyumardi Azra attracted great attention from the
\n300 participants of the seminar when he delivered his speech on
\nthe challenge of political Islam. He played down the significant
\npower of the several Muslim hard-line groups in Indonesia despite
\ntheir highly publicized anti-U.S. protests in Jakarta recently.<\/p>\n
The tendency to view the hard-liners as representatives of
\nIndonesian Islam was unfortunate. Despite the growing prominence
\n- at least in the mass media - of the hard-liners, mainstream
\nIndonesian Muslims remained moderate in their religious attitudes
\nas well as in their political behavior, said the scholar.<\/p>\n
\"It is again clear that hardline political Islam has very
\nlittle prospect in Indonesia. It is also very doubtful that
\nhardline Muslim groups will be able to post a real threat to
\nPresident Megawati's government,\" said Azyumardi.<\/p>\n
Azyumardi reminded the audience that mainstream Islam was
\nrepresented by the major Muslim organizations, Nahdlatul Ulama
\n(NU) and Muhammadiyah, estimated to have up to 40 million members
\neach.<\/p>\n
\"The two largest Muslim organizations in Indonesia have
\npublicly stated that they do not agree with, let alone support,
\nthe appeal to Indonesian Muslims to wage a jihad in Afghanistan,\"
\nAzyumardi said.<\/p>\n
He, however, warned that prolonged U.S. military operations in
\nAfghanistan would destabilize countries with large Muslim
\npopulations like Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Jusuf Wanandi emphasized the importance of
\nimplementing civilian supremacy over the Indonesian Military
\n(TNI), not only in laying out the law and regulations on defense
\nand domestic security but also in the realization of the rules,
\nregulations and the accountability of the TNI to civilian
\nauthority.<\/p>\n
\"This has yet to happen. What has been proclaimed thus far is
\nthat civilian control is limited to the decision-making level and
\nso does not include the implementation. In the end, a political
\nculture ensuring complete civilian supremacy has to be
\nestablished gradually,\" said Jusuf in his speech on the changes
\nin TNI's political role.<\/p>",
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