JAKARTA \u2014 A survey by the Institute for Economic and Social Research\nat the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM\nFEB UI), found that economists believe the target of 6% economic growth\nin 2027 will be difficult to achieve. Experts highlighted the Free\nNutritious Meals programme (MBG) and Merah Putih Village Cooperatives\n(KDMP), which they consider the initiatives most at risk.<\/p>\n
\u201cEconomists have expressed considerable doubt about the likelihood of\nachieving the 6% economic growth target assumed in the Draft 2027 State\nBudget (RAPBN),\u201d LPEM FEB UI wrote in its \u2018LPEM Economic Expert Survey \u2013\nSemester II 2026\u2019, cited on Sunday (25 October 2026).<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted online from 21 September to 13 October 2026.\nIts sample comprised 63 economists from various backgrounds, including\nacademia, research institutes, think tanks, the private sector and\nmultinational organisations and institutions.<\/p>\n
\u201cOf the 63 respondents, 37 economists (59%) considered the target the\nmacroeconomic assumption least likely to be achieved, making it the most\nfrequently selected answer by a substantial margin over the other\nassumptions,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
The rupiah exchange-rate assumption of Rp17,500 to the US dollar\nranked second among the 2027 draft budget\u2019s most difficult macroeconomic\nassumptions to meet, selected by 12 respondents (19%).<\/p>\n
Relatively few economists considered the other macroeconomic\nassumptions the most difficult to achieve. Four respondents (6%)\nselected the assumption that Indonesia\u2019s crude oil price would be US$75\na barrel, followed by three (5%) who selected inflation of 2.5%, with a\nmargin of plus or minus 1 percentage point. Just one respondent (2%)\nselected the assumption of a 6.9% yield on 10-year government securities\n(SUN).<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, six respondents (10%) said they were confident that all\nthe macroeconomic assumptions could be achieved. \u201cOverall, these\nfindings show that economists view the 2027 economic growth target as\nthe most challenging component of the government\u2019s macroeconomic\nprojections, while concern about the achievability of the other\nassumptions is relatively lower,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
In the same survey, economists identified the MBG programme, KDMP and\nthe 8% economic growth target as the government agendas most at risk of\nfailing to meet expectations. This was seen as a major challenge to the\neffective implementation of government programmes in the period\nahead.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe MBG programme, particularly its ambition to serve as one of the\ndrivers of economic growth, was the agenda most frequently considered at\nrisk of falling short of expectations, selected by 54 of the 63\nrespondents (86%),\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
The KDMP programme was selected by 48 respondents (76%), followed by\nthe government\u2019s 8% economic growth target, selected by 43 respondents\n(68%).<\/p>\n
By contrast, relatively fewer respondents considered investment led\nby the Daya Anagata Nusantara Investment Management Agency (BPI\nDanantara) (14 respondents, or 22%), downstream processing and\nindustrialisation (eight, or 13%), and the three-million-homes programme\n(seven, or 11%) to be among the agendas most at risk of falling short of\nexpectations. Energy self-sufficiency and food self-sufficiency were\neach selected by just five respondents (8%).<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/economists-say-6-growth-target-will-be-difficult-to-achieve-1792932701", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }